Ive been promising this for a while, and because its so meaty I decided to break it down into a few chunks, so that people can digest and understand each bit before taking on the next.  And theres a few weeks of NAB Cup to analyse, and I need all the time I can get to develop the list of ins and outs for 2011.

What I thought everyone here would benefit from is to know how the list has changed over time, because its that transition of players values, like father time, that stops for no player.

First, a definition of a premium: 100 points per game average in a season.
Second, a definition of elite: 120 points per game average in a season.

Now without further ado, I will list the premiums list from 2010, and how its changed from 2009, 2008 and 2007.  From there I will draw some conclusions.  Join me by clicking the link and heading over the break...

<!--more-->So, heres the listing of 2010 Premiums and Elites (E) by position (Note all positions listed are 2011 positions)
Mid-Def - Goddard (E), Gibbs, Deledio
Mid-Fwd - Chapman, Didak, Harvey, Pavlich
Ruck - Sandilands
Mid - Ablett (E), Swan (E), Judd, Selwood, Hodge, Barlow, Montagna, Cross, Dal Santo, Murphy, Pendlebury, Priddis, Watson, Boyd, A Swallow, Hayes, Tuck, K Cornes, Bartel, J Bolton, Burgoyne, Simpson, Jack
Fwd - N Riewoldt, Franklin
Def - Lake, Bruce, Johncock

No real surprises here.  These were the stars of 2010, no question.
From 2009, here are the changes:
Became Elite: Goddard
Lost Elite: Montagna
Became Premium (first time): Barlow, A Swallow, Johncock, Simpson, Jack
Became Premium (re-entry): Hodge, Franklin,Tuck, Harvey, Burgoyne (last premium in 2009), Lake, Bruce, K Cornes (2008)
Lost Premium in 2010:  Goodes, Davis, Sewell, Cox, OKeefe, Mitchell, Corey, Drummond, Bock

2008 Premiums compared with 2009/2010:
Became Elite: Swan (2009/10), Montagna (2009), Goddard (2010)
Lost Elite: No one - Ablett the only Elite in 2008
Became Premium: Goddard, Pendlebury, Franklin, Tuck, Deledio, Cooney, Thompson, Cassisi, Enright, Newman
Lost Premium: (return in 2009 &amp; 10): Chapman, Montagna (return in 2010): Lake, Bruce, K Cornes
Lost Premium in 2009-2010 (stayed out): Black, Cooney, Power, Thompson, Cassisi, Fisher, Enright, J Brown, Newman, Ball, J McVeigh

2007 Premiums compared with 2008/9/10:
Became Elite: Ablett (2008-10), Swan (2009-10), Montagna (2009) , Goddard (2010)
Lost Elite: Bartel
Became Premium: Ablett, Swan, Montagna, Lake, Corey, Drummond, Fisher, Kerr, Adcock, Malceski
Lost Premium: (returned by 2010): J Bolton
Lost Premium: (returned in 2008-2009): Cox
Lost Premium in 2008-2009-2010: (did not return): Kerr, C Cornes, Adcock, Gilbee,  Milburn, Fletcher, Shaw, Malceski, Scotland

Goodes, Brown, Hayes, Dal Santo and Judd were all elite in 2006, and havent been since.

--- My Analysis ---
1. There is significant changeover in premiums from year to year.  Generally there are around 35-40 premiums each year, of which 10 or more change each year.

2. In 2007 (and earlier) there was a trend where defenders were premium.  Since then, game strategy changes mean that 90 is the new defenders premium.

3. Elite players are hard to come by.  Ablett 3 years and Swan 2 the only players to have achieved in multiple seasons from 2006-2010.

4. Of the players who were not premium, there are more players who were previously a premium returning than those who are rising stars.   So if I were to make a prediction this year, it would be that of the 10 changes or so for this year, 6 or 7 should be from the group that were not premiums in 2010 but have been in the past (Goodes, Davis, Sewell, Cox, OKeefe, Mitchell, Corey, Drummond, Bock, Black, Cooney, Power, Thompson, Cassisi, Fisher, Enright, J Brown, Newman, Ball, McVeigh, Kerr, C Cornes, Adcock, Gilbee, Milburn, Scotland, Shaw, Fletcher, Malceski)

5. The average age of a premium in 2010 is 27.  Average age of those not premiums since: 2009 - 28.6, 2008 - 28, 2007 - 29.   This indicates that when you lose it, you lose it.  And when youre old, your team transitions you into a different role.   The strike zone clearly (with a few notable exceptions) is age 25-28.  Players who are premiums from 2010 but not in that age division are:
Up-comers: Selwood, Barlow, Murphy, Pendlebury, Franklin, A Swallow, Gibbs, Deledio, Jack (very common picks in most SuperCoach teams)
Fossils (or soon to be): Chapman, Lake, Hayes, Tuck, Bruce, J Bolton, Harvey, Pavlich

6. Elite players tend to be in that 25-28 strike zone.  Looks like another big year for Goddard, Ablett, Swan, Judd, Hodge, Montagna (among others)

7. Team distribution tended towards sides that did well.  Interestingly Hawthorns elite players in 2008 stayed elite (largely) in 2009-2010, meaning its more likely that the mid and lower tiers have let them down in the past few years.  Brisbane players peaked in their drop off in 2008, which shows why they thought they were on the cutting edge of finals success, but in fact meant they were headed for the cutting room floor.  No Melbourne players (from 2011 lists) have featured - with only Bruce being premium in the last few years.

8. On team distribution, the most for a team was the Saints 5.  I cant see more doing so this season from any team, maybe even 5 is too much to ask.  The Saints Fab 5 were: Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo, Riewoldt and Hayes.  Will one drop off in 2011, and who of these would you choose...?

Thats enough analysis for now.  Next article I will try to see which of the list of ex-prems will return for 2011.  All deserve a detailed investigation, and thats what I intend to provide.