Apparently there's a fixed amount of total salary in play. As rookies prices appreciate, most premiums salary must depreciate to accommodate, even for a premium scoring 10 points above his averages, he'll still fall in price. Based on each players averages versus their first 8 opponents - (where payers got a low score due to an injury or being subbed, I've compensated by counting their usual average to better reflect expectations) should they maintain their averages - Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement - Pendlebury --- 700k --------------- 623k ----------- -77k Ablett-------- 690k --------------- 651k ----------- -39k Cox ---------- 662k --------------- 566k ----------- -96k Swan ----------661k --------------- 650k ----------- -11k Dalsanto-------647k --------------- 540k ----------- -107k Murphy --------640k --------------- 558k ----------- -82k Judd ----------626k --------------- 550k ----------- -76k Boyd ----------626k --------------- 552k ----------- -74k Priddis -------618k --------------- 605k ----------- -13k Rockliff ------615k --------------- 507k ----------- -108k Mitchel -------615k --------------- 547k ----------- -68k Goldstein -----613k --------------- 459k ----------- -154k Mumford -------610k --------------- 496k ----------- -14k Swallow -------607k --------------- 542k ----------- -65k Selwood -------604k --------------- 622k ----------- +18k Franklin ------600k --------------- 517k ----------- -83k Sandilands ----600k --------------- 537k ----------- -63k Thompson ------599k --------------- 471k ----------- -128k Thomas --------593k --------------- 498k ----------- -95k Griffen -------587k --------------- 512k ----------- -65k Goodes --------586k --------------- 511k ----------- -75k Fyfe ----------586k --------------- 500k------------ -86k Goddard -------585k --------------- 536k ----------- -49k Johnson -------582k --------------- 523k ----------- -59k Mundy ---------580k --------------- 490k ----------- -90k Hodge ---------577k --------------- 506k ----------- -71k Watson --------574k --------------- 525k ----------- -49k
This list is based on each players averages at the grounds they play on for the first 8 rounds. Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement - Pendlebury --- 700k --------------- 644k ----------- -56k Ablett-------- 690k --------------- 621k ----------- -69k Cox ---------- 662k --------------- 633k ----------- -29k Swan ----------661k --------------- 619k ----------- -42k Dalsanto-------647k --------------- 590k ----------- -57k Murphy --------640k --------------- 599k ----------- -41k Judd ----------626k --------------- 560k ----------- -66k Boyd ----------626k --------------- 560k ----------- -36k Priddis -------618k --------------- 569k ----------- -49k Rockliff ------615k --------------- 625k ----------- +10k Mitchel -------615k --------------- 635k ----------- +20k Goldstein -----613k --------------- 482k ----------- -131k Mumford -------610k --------------- 545k ----------- -65k Swallow -------607k --------------- 606k ----------- -1k Selwood -------604k --------------- 588k ----------- -16k Franklin ------600k --------------- 595k ----------- -5k Sandilands ----600k --------------- 529k ----------- -71k Thompson ------599k --------------- 421k ----------- -178k Thomas --------593k --------------- 590k ----------- -3k Griffen -------587k --------------- 481k ----------- -106k Goodes --------586k --------------- 619k ----------- +33k Fyfe ----------586k --------------- 524k ----------- -62k Goddard -------585k --------------- 503k ----------- -82k Johnson -------582k --------------- 561k ----------- -21k Mundy ---------580k --------------- 441k ----------- -139k Hodge ---------577k --------------- 543k ----------- -34k Watson --------574k --------------- 518k ----------- -56k
I'd put a bit more weight on accuracy of v opponent averages than @ground averages, but I think both need to be taken into consideration, here it is averaged with 75% weight on v opponent & 25% weight @ground, so if a player shows 600k v opponents & 500k @grounds, i didnt meet in the middle for 550k, but 575k, or if a player shows 500k v opponents & 600k @grounds, it's 525k. Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement - Pendlebury --- 700k --------------- 628k ----------- -72k Ablett-------- 690k --------------- 644k ----------- -46k Cox ---------- 662k --------------- 583k ----------- -79k Swan ----------661k --------------- 642k ----------- -19k Dalsanto-------647k --------------- 552k ----------- -95k Murphy --------640k --------------- 568k ----------- -72k Judd ----------626k --------------- 552k ----------- -74k Boyd ----------626k --------------- 554k ----------- -72k Priddis -------618k --------------- 594k ----------- -24k Rockliff ------615k --------------- 537k ----------- -78k Mitchel -------615k --------------- 569k ----------- -46k Goldstein -----613k --------------- 465k ----------- -148k Mumford -------610k --------------- 508k ----------- -102k Swallow -------607k --------------- 558k ----------- -49k Selwood -------604k --------------- 614k ----------- +10k Franklin ------600k --------------- 536k ----------- -64k Sandilands ----600k --------------- 535k ----------- -65k Thompson ------599k --------------- 457k ----------- -42k Thomas --------593k --------------- 521k ----------- -72k Griffen -------587k --------------- 504k ----------- -83k Goodes --------586k --------------- 522k ----------- -64k Fyfe ----------586k --------------- 493k ----------- -93k Goddard -------585k --------------- 528k ----------- -57k Johnson -------582k --------------- 532k ----------- -50k Mundy ---------580k --------------- 478k ----------- -102k Hodge ---------577k --------------- 515k ----------- -62k Watson --------574k --------------- 523k ----------- -51k
Footnote: Disclaimer - Due to being on the 2nd bottle vodka, if something stands out, double check my math on TS' player calculator. No responsibility accepted for miscalculations lol. Tommorrow I'll further tweak the list by factoring in pre season form & age of players being leaving, in, or approaching their prime.
This issue was discussed in detail by JPK's articles (http://tooserious.net/2012-premium-midfield-analysis-by-the-graphs). However as was discovered, you can get into trouble when discussing 3-year averages because a lot has changed in that time. Goldstein for example was a nobody 3 years ago and you can't expect him to score like he did in 2009.
Thanks FF, great info, though Swert's sage advice for the newer premiums must be considered. FF ....using the "75% weight on v opponent & 25% weight @ground" data, is there any chance you can go further down than $574K?
FF- fantastic work! Lucas - re Selwood, I just worry about him missing games due to admirable - but perhaps excessive - bravery, plus the impact of increased penalty for clanger kickers. I know with Lingy's etc retirement there may be more points to go round, but will Geelong win quite as many this year as last? Compare Selwood to say Murphy, who hardly ever misses games, has consistently increased his PPG every season and is now entering the prime of his career. There's only a $35k price difference between them, and I reckon the odds are high that Murphy will score significantly more points overall this season than Selwood. Does that outweigh the possible difference in price drop over the first 8 rounds that FF has picked up? It'd be great to get your thoughts.
@rev Re Selwood, he only missed one game last year due to excessive bravery and 4 due to stupidity. I think the captaincy mantle will stamp out the latter and he only missed 2 games in the 3 years previous. His 2011 average would be 6 points higher (same as Murphy) if not for his Rd 1 concussion and there is no change to the clanger kick rule from last year. If Murphy is entering his prime, Selwood is a year younger and yes, there is $35K difference.
@Whips Thanks for the feedback...Selwood's back in! Now need to work out what to do with the extra $$'s...
Rev...thing to consider with everything is the bye I'm thinking about just going bang and starting with a clutch of midfield prems.
Fine work fidelsfinger. Going by this, apart from Selwood being very appealing it also points Goldy well and truly in the opposite direction. After a massive break out year last year you'd expect another big one but these figures along with HMac back he seems a definite no go for me.
Selwood's stats look too good to be true but just double checked & they're right. Thanks for link to JPK's analysis Swert, excellent read, somehow missed that, I need to hit next page more often. There's such a wealth of info here. Walesy's Rockliff observation is spot on, I'll need to factor it in, where the 3 game average includes a debut season, for those younger premiums I might have to re work their stats to exclude their first year. The Onion, I'll go a bit deeper down the list & later include several other considerations, including walesy's "3 game breakoutitis" factor. Oodles, I was keen on Goldy too, then went off him from these stats, but now after Swerts comments am unsure again, will take another look at him & perhaps drop older stats from his averages too.
Fantastic work on the stats, just for going through them, amazing how vodka affects the workload. Priddis and Swan also looking reasonable at maintaining their cash. I think Priddis will go better this year though and Swan perhaps decline as he thinks about his retirement....(not). Mumford looks a little more depressing, thought Cox was going to be the one to drop more by stats, but think Cox likely to decrease depending on work load and Nic Nat doing more ruck work. Well hoping as I'm going with Mummy to start with....
I'm leaning toward mumford now also. These are a few additions to the 75%/25% list, will tweak em a bit more tonight. Pavlich = -29k Scotand = -63k Deledio = -58k Wells = -49k Gibbs = -38k Redden = -100k Okeefe = -37k Luenberger= -42k Roughead = -45k Mcevoy = -99k Bartel = -43k Chapman = -22k Forecast for Redden will improve when debut season's removed from stats.
Name --------Starting price --- Round 8 price --- price movement - * Pendlebury -89-- 700k -------Mid-------- 631k ----------- -69k Ablett------84-- 690k -------Mid-------- 644k ----------- -46k Cox --------81-- 662k -------Ruck------- 583k -------------79k Swan -------84---661k -------Mid-------- 642k ----------- -19k Dalsanto----84---647k -------Mid-------- 552k ----------- -95k Murphy -----87---640k -------Mid-------- 568k ----------- -72k Judd -------83---626k -------Mid-------- 552k ----------- -74k Boyd -------82---626k -------Mid-------- 554k ----------- -72k Priddis ----85---618k -------Mid-------- 594k ----------- -24k * Rockliff --90---615k ------Mid-------- 568k ----------- -47k Mitchel ----82---615k -------Mid-------- 569k ----------- -46k * Goldstein -88---613k ------Ruck------- 495k ----------- -118k Mumford ----86---610k -------Ruck------- 508k ----------- -102k Swallow ----87---607k -------Mid-------- 558k ----------- -49k Selwood ----88---604k -------Mid-------- 614k ----------- +10k Franklin ---87---600k -------For-------- 536k ----------- -64k Sandilands -82---600k -------Ruck------- 535k ----------- -65k Thompson ---83---599k --------Mid------- 457k ----------- -42k Thomas -----87---593k --------Mid------- 521k ----------- -72k Griffen ----86---587k --------Mid------- 504k ----------- -83k Goodes -----80---586k --------F/M------- 522k ----------- -64k * Fyfe -----91---586k --------F/M------ 503k ----------- -83k Goddard ----85---585k --------D/M------- 528k ----------- -57k Johnson ----83---582k --------For------- 532k ----------- -50k Mundy ------85---580k --------Mid------- 478k ----------- -102k Hodge ------84---577k --------Mid------- 515k ----------- -62k Watson -----85---574k --------Mid------- 523k ----------- -51k Pavlich-----81---573k --------F/M--------544k ----------- -29k Scotand-----80---573k ------- D/M--------510k ----------- -63k Deledio-----87---569k ------- D/M--------511k ----------- -58k Wells-------85---565k --------Mid--------516k ----------- -49k * Gibbs-----89---558k --------Mid--------538k ----------- -20k * Redden----90---557k --------Mid--------489k ----------- -68k Okeefe------81---556k --------F/M -------519k ----------- -37k * Luenberger-88--554k --------Ruck-------532k ----------- -22k Roughead----87---550k --------F/R--------505k ----------- -45k * Mcevoy--- 89---549k --------Ruck-------489k ----------- -60k Bartel----- 83---549k --------Mid--------506k ----------- -43k Chapman-----81---548k --------F/M--------526k ----------- -22k To address "3 game breakoutitis", well coined Walesy The asterix * players averages have been assessed using only their last 2 games versus each opponent. Wherever a second game back was from 2009 or 2010 & where an unusually low score was involved, I took some liberties in rounding up to a score more likely now. eg: where Rockliff scored 65 versus Carlton 2 years ago, I've given him 90 points instead. hopefuly 3GB bug fixed These figures don't yet factor in pre season form or players age.