With only 3 rounds to go before finals, things are getting tight in the race for finals spots. This week we'll focus on matches that will have a bearing on teams either making it or missing out. Apologies to @DamoH and @bryzza who will be fighting out an epic battle with serious top 4 ramifications but they can rest a little easier knowing that they'll at least be there when we get to the knockout stages. For the coaches of the teams below, sleep isn't going to come quite so easily over the next few weeks; Groote Eyelandt v Gisborne King Island v Banchang Coolgardie v Staghorn Flat Korumburra v Ararat Hughenden v Serengeti
Groote Eyelandt v Gisborne What's at stake? A win for the Barracudas will see them jump into the top for should @eagle_eyed or @bryzza slip up in tricky contests while for Gisborne the equation is simple. 9 wins and a strong points for column should be enough to scrape into 8th spot so win out from here and they'll give themselves every chance of claiming that last finals spot. Selection table The biggest problem facing @YAD69 is what to do with their forwardline. Defensively it hasn't quite worked out for the Barracudas but they at least have their best potential players available. Unfortunately up front the ageing body of Jarrad Waite hasn't been able to stand up to the rigours of a long season while promising youngsters Line Jong and Kanye West have also succumbed to injury. That leaves only 5 fit players available to fill 4 spots so just who the selection committee comes up with to roam the forward 50 arc could prove decisive. An unfortunate appendix issue for star mid Marcus Bontempelli isn't making things any easier either, while the poor form of Rhys Stanley will have management sweating on whether he even bothers turning up to the match this week . The only headache for @Tomster on the other hand is which in form players to pick with Gisborne at as close to full strength as a team is likely to be. The in form Brayshaw is leading their defensive line and could potentially be joined by the return of Mitch McGovern up forward. Prediction I can see this one coming down to the ruck battle. With all the injury issues facing the Barracudas they just can't afford to be missing Stanley from the team. Reports out of Groote Eylandt suggest that an expert in emotional healing has been brought in to the club for a week long stay to try and get young Rhys up for this match up and providing any sort of drive for the Barracudas out of the middle. It will be money well spent if it works with a top 4 spot up for grabs but in the humble opinion of this column I can see Stanley going on holiday this week and it costing his team the 4 points. A closing 2 week fixture against 2 sides outside the 8 may mean that a top 4 spot could still be theirs for the taking but for this week in front of us I'm tipping the Grenades to keep thier season alive, but they'll be wanting to post a mammoth total to give themselves a serious chance of finals action. Gisborne by 30
I want to double-like this just for that last sentence, especially after your 100% tipping record last week. Cheers wb!
King Island v Banchang What's at stake? With both teams on 6 wins it's win or go home this week for @Tylo & @choppers. The winner will keep their season alive while the loser will be able to start planning their end of season trip. Selection table At such a vital point of the season, an injury to their star ruckmen could hardly have come at a worse time for the Monarchs of King Island. Having been working around the clock to get Jack Macrae back on the park in time for a late charge to the finals, it was a cruel blow to see Naitinui go down in the week Jack was back. They'll aslo need to find a replacement for Taylor Walker who is fortunate to only be missing one week after trying to take out opposition player Zach Touhy in an incident on a supposedly friendly mid-week pub crawl to welcome the visiting Barcrawlers. It will be touch and go whether Tuohy gets up for the match with management doing everything they can to get him ready after already losing Jonas & Hanley from the defence. Hanley is working his way back to full fitness but is more than likely at least 1 more week away while Tom Barrass could be the teams saviour if he can prove his fitness after running around in the seconds last week Prediction The Monarchs have been sitting inside the top 8 for most of the year but it looks as if injuries to key players have finally caught up with them having dropped to 11th following last weeks loss to Gisborne. Macrae was incredibly straight back to his starring best and could be the man to drag them over the line and keep their season alive but even with Zac Smith a likly in to somewhat cover the loss of injured ruckmen Naitinui, I think it will be the Barcrawlers who keep on fighting for a finals spot in 2018. Banchang by 40
Coolgardie v Staghorn Flat What's at stake? Another of the teams on 6 wins @JPK is in the same boat as his fellow coaches log-jammed on 24 points, win or it is season over. Even though @tyze1 may have 8 wins in the bank, with the lowest points for column of any of the finals contenders, they wouldn't want any slip ups or they could see their current grip on 8th place loosen considerably. Selection table Is there anything more frustrating than finding out a player who completed a match seemingly without a problem is now going to miss multiple weeks? That's the unfortunate scenario faced by the Prospectors this week with star swingman James Sicily out for up to 6 weeks and leaving a gaping hole at either end of the field. Management will also be sweating on the fitness of Oraaaaazio who has been a late withdrawal in the past fortnight which has some coaches questioning the ethics of the Thursday night selections being made. The Bulls aren't without their own selection concerns with the ongoing problem of how to replace Big Boy McEvoy in the ruck department however they could receive a very timely boost with the potential return of David Zaharakis. Prediction The return to form of fringe players, Aliir, Daw & Watts could not have come at a better time for the Prospectors but the same could be said on the Bulls side for the return of David Zaharakis. A midfield group of Coniglio, Whitfield, Rockliff and Zaharakis challenges most teams in ORFFU land but will they get the chance to show their talents with Stef Martin roaming the open spaces of his home town Coolgardie goldfields without any real opposition? The injury to Sicily is a massive blow to the Prospectors but does it hurt as much as the Bulls missing their lone ruckmen? Recent form says the Prospectors will get the job done however the mental toll of losing suck a key player at a pivotal time of the season could be too much to overcome. A lot could come down to which players under injury clouds get up for the contest with Fantasia on the Coolgardie side and Zaharakis on the Staghorn Flat side vital to each sides fortunes. Without the gift of prophecy to see who will line up on either side, I'm going to stick to current form and tip the Prospectors in a tight battle. Coolgardie by 15
Korumburra v Ararat What's at stake? Could this be a grand final preview? Will the Armadillos unbeaten season be destroyed? This round 18 matchup pits probably the 2 most in-form teams of the comp up against each other and should be a battle for the ages. With top spot all but sewn up for Ararat, even a loss would still see them claim the crown if the Smugglers fall to the Vikings while even though Korumburra are coming in on the back of a 5 game winning streak, and have 8 wins to their name, given their slow start to the season they wouldn't want to be giving any advantage to the chasing pack by dropping a match here. Selection table As it has been all season after the horrible injury to star defender Sam Docherty in the pre-season, defence is where @Mick and his selection committee are going to have the most problems. Fresh injury concerns for breakout youngster Jimmy Webster will cause problems and they'll be hoping old-timer Luke Hodge recovers from last weeks calf problem that caused him to miss the round 17 match up as well as praying retirement village counterpart Scott Thompson continues his late career resurgence. For @insider and the Ararat team, Adam Treloar remains out and in a battle to return for any finals action but they could be boosted by the early return of forward Mason Wood. Prediction Korumburra have outscored Ararat in both of the last 2 rounds and will be lamenting the fact this matchup has come in a week when their light on backline has been put under extra pressure. The return of Luke Hodge should solidify things down back for the Blowflys but even with an under performing midfield and inconsistent individual performers there just always seems to be enough in the Ararat side to beat each team that is put in front of them. On current form I actually can't see how or why but Ararat probably wins again. Armadillos by 5
This is absolutely champion work mate! Great analysis of all the teams and all the games, and a great read to boot. Lets hope the Prospectors keep winning, as per your prediction. If not, then lets hope we lose BIG (tanking anyone?) as earlier draft picks wouldn't go astray...
Hughenden v Serengeti What's at stake? The last of the 6-8 teams sees Hughenden also in a must win scenario but with a strong points for column @Batfink can be more confident of a realistic chance to see finals action if they can scrounge together 3 straight wins to close the season. Even though Serengeti have made it to 7 wins, their poor scoring start to the season has meant they'll probably need 10 wins to get in so can't afford a loss either. Selection table Another matchup where a ruck selection could prove vital. Can the Hughenden medical team get the big Sandi up for action when his team needs him most? Injuries where always going to be a concern as the season wore on for 211 but an underwhelming season from backup Archie Smith has probably meant there has been more pressure than anticipated on the Hughenden big men. Elsewhere on the park the Prairie Dogs look pretty sound although Callum Mills remains out for the season in a light on backline and although not a star player, Sam Kerridge plays a vital role in the midfield and will be missed. Defence is also the major problem for Serengeti, as it has been all season. Steven May & Tom Langdon are both under injury clouds and the selection committee will have a tough time deciding on who will be best placed to take on an in form Hughenden forward set up. A super impressive debut from mid-season recruit Darcy Parish and an underwhelming couple of weeks from Allen Christensen will also have management scratching their heads about what the best mix is up forward for the Buffaloes. Prediction Can Sandi get up? Will the Buffalo defenders start to stand up? Last week Hughenden sent a reminder of what this team can produce when all things click together and if Sandilands does get up for round 18 they will be a real show of keeping their season alive. Serengeti have started to string some better performances together and have looked a lot better since the mid-season break but will be worried that a return to earlier season form is always a danger. With their stacked midfield running deeper than the Prairie Dogs I'm tipping the visitors to get the win but if Sandilands does get up it could show up the weakest area of the Serengeti game plan. Buffaloes by 20
I reckon you’re spot on WB, Houli out now as well as Hannan, Corr oop in fwd it will be an interesting performance from the Cudas this week. Will have to rely on Gropers & Vikings taking a loss as well to stay put on the ladder.
Lol. Can’t claim too much thought in the margin. Lucky guess after analysing which team are favourites. Apologies for getting the hopes up @Tomster. Who knew the health & well being investment from @YAD69 would work so well for Stanley as well as getting his partner in crime Tom Hawkins well and truly up and about as well!