Matches under the microscope this week; Coolgardie v Hughenden Serengeti v Cow Bay Staghorn Flat v Pakenham Ararat v Pearcedale and hopefully; Groote v Eden Nuyts v Korumburra Valuable information; The Run Home equation - http://tooserious.net/forum/threads/2018-the-run-home.90207/page-2#JAoX91XYLPOwLIx4.97
Coolgardie v Hughenden What's at stake? After putting together 3 wins on the trot @JPK has kept the Prospectors season alive but will be ruing the poor showing from Gisborne last week that gave Staghorn their 9th win and made things very difficult for Coolgardie to nab one of the last remaining finals spots. As detailed in the Run Home post they need a lot of things to go right for them to get in but a win here first is the most important to take care of if they are to have any chance. @Batfink seems to have a consistent knack of bringing out the best in his opposition and although generous, the Prairie Dogs will be hoping for some of those performances to rub off on their own team after season 2018 goes down as another finals miss albeit an improvement on 2017. Selection table Although Sicily went down in the past fortnight, the return of key player Fantasia and improved form of Short, Aliir & Daw have meant that Coolgardie have been able to keep posting solid scores and getting the W's on the board. Sicily will remain out of this matchup and any potential finals that Coolgaride make it to but aside from that there aren't too many worries for the Prospectors. Hughenden also have close to their best players available for selection with their only fresh concern up forward after opposition teams were starting to worry about the improvement in Kyle Langford and sort to have him taken out in the Prairie Dogs match up last week. Big Sandi continues to miss and leave a big hole in the ruck department. Prediction With more to play for and better coverage across the field, the Prospectors should get the job done, but will it be enough for them to sneak into the 8? I'm tipping mixed emotions for @JPK this weekend with his boys getting the job done but ultimately falling short in their finals chase. Coolgardie by 45
Ararat v Pearcedale What's at stake? Just a few short weeks ago @TigersTooTough was planning how to best manage the Pearcedale squad for a deep finals run but losses in 3 out of their last 4 have left them in all likelihood, a scenario that sees them needing to beat the top team just to scrape into the 8. @insider has his own concerns around the Armadillos squad. Not many other teams would have been able to cope with the amount of injuries to key players that Ararat have experienced but the depth of this squad has meant that this match won't have a bearing on their finishing position after top spot was wrapped up for them a couple of weeks ago. Selection table A combination of continued injuries and inconsistent performances have been the let down over the last month out at Pearcedale and selection news has not got any better for them this week. The Panthers 2 leading defenders Jeremy Howe and Shane Savage have fresh injury concerns just when the team can least afford it as they are withdrawn from an already depleted backline but in better news Brodie Smith has continued his comeback from a knee injury and returns to the team just in time while Charlie Curnow showed of his ever developing arguing skills as he was again let off an original suspension charge. Those all around the league are all aware of his up and coming stardom but questions are starting to be asked about the continued favourable outcomes. Ararat suffered a key blow on the eve of the finals with Tom Stewart more than likely copping a season ending injury in last weeks bounce back win and with Tom Cutler suspended the Armadillos will also be stretched down back. With Treloar, Dahlhaus and Wells all still on the sidelines this is not the same team that was all together dominant during the first half of the season with the Sandgropers even overtaking them as the highest scoring team for the year at the end of last round. Prediction This one will be closer than may first appear. Ararat sitting pretty on top of the table and the Panthers only winning one in the last month suggest that the Panthers grip on a finals spot is loose at best. However, Pearcedale have actually outscored Ararat twice in that last month and although they have suffered some fresh losses this week they may be offset by the casualties that Ararat have also had to deal with. Come final siren time though I think it will be the Armadillos just in front unless Nank can get on top of the people's beard and outpoint him in a pivotal ruck battle and the Panthers depth players step up in the way Ararat have been able to conjure as they impressively fill in for their missing star teammates. Ararat by 25
Serengeti v Cow Bay What's at stake? One of 3 teams currently in the bottom half of the 8 to have won their past 5 matches, Serengeti have clawed their way back up the table and currently occupy 8th spot. Win this last match of the H&A season and a second consecutive finals appearance will be theirs after making their maiden run last year. @fresh has brought his Crocs along in huge strides during season 2018 and will be one of the teams to watch in future years but season 2018 was over for the 2017 Crocs and this match will be the end of the line for them. Selection table Ex-Croc Jeremy Cameron has spent the last 5 weeks doing a mini pre-season but was adamant he must return for not just a pre-finals workout but to say g'day to old Cow Bay mates and have the chance to compete against his old teammates. He almost didn't make the squad after young forward replacements Parish & Ahern and put in impressive performances while he was away but ultimately he couldn't be refused a return to the lineup and mid-season recruit Darcy Parish was the unlucky one to miss out. Defence has been where most common issues have surfaced for Serengeti though and this week is no exception with Steven May & Marcus Adams both set to miss. Unlike the start of the year where the defensive 50 was often patrolled by an undermanned backline the Buffaloes at least have reinforcements available to replace the 2 key backmen even if they aren't in the best of form. The young Crocs are showing the signs of a long season with their squad currently cruelled by injury to the point they will be doing well to field a full squad of 15 once they get down to The Crater. In an interesting move though, @fresh has identified the Serengeti weakness around the ruck department and in an attempt to exploit the lack of Buffalo big man strength the selection committee have decided to go in to this one with an unprecedented 3 ruckmen. Prediction In all honesty this should be a comfortable confirmation of finals action for Serengeti but they won't want to take anything for granted with 2 sides breathing down their neck to snatch a finals spot should they stumble. Serengeti by 100+
Staghorn Flat v Pakenham What's at stake? With a forecast loss on the cards for the Panthers there is a spot in the finals up for grabs if Staghorn can grab their 10th win of the year as their season closes out against the Parasites of Pakenham. @tyze1 and the Staghorn Flat faithful with have one eye on this game and another glued to the phone screens as they follow the Pearcedale result as a win for the Panthers would render this result void (if the Buffaloes also win) while a loss for Pearcedale would mean finals action for the Bulls if Staghorn can win this one. It's been a transition year for @ddsaints and his Pakenham boys as they bring in some quality young pieces of the puzzle and transition out the older servants of a team that has seen some decent success in the opening ORFFU years. With 15th spot all but locked away, for the Pakenham fans and players it will be half an eye on this contest and 1 and a half on the scheduled plane to the end of season trip that leaves straight after this one wraps up. Selection table Just 1 real injury concern for the Bulls but it remains a significant issue with Big Boy McEvoy still on the sidelines and no backup ruckmen in the Staghorn ranks. Adding insult to injury is Matthew Lobbe who was recently let go by the Bulls but is now playing quality football in the rival ORAFL. The return of Zaharakis in the past few weeks has been significant for the Bulls and they'll need all of their star studded midfield at the top of their game to make sure they cover the loss of their big man. Tom Lynch and Alex Fasolo remain as missing forward line pieces but the likes of Thomas, Lobb and youngster McCluggage are doing solid jobs at filling the holes left by those two. With Aaron Francis debuting last week, Darcy Moore healthy again and Hipwood ever improving adding to a core of Gaff, Sidebum, Hogan and Franklin, the Parasites will run out with a team full of potential even if they won't yet be able to produce what they could be capable of in a couple of years time. Prediction In the last 5 weeks the Parasites have averaged 1172 to the Bulls 1165 but the wheels have dropped off in the past fortnight as they have only been able to muster an average score of 1085 vs the Bulls putting up 1189. If Pakenham turn up this could be interesting but with too many players ready for the end of the year I'm tipping the Bulls to committ the steal of the century and grab the unlikeliest of finals spots. Don't book those August holidays just yet Bulls fans! Staghorn by 80