Rucks by the numbers

Discussion in 'AFL' started by stkildathunda, Jul 12, 2011.

  1. stkildathunda

    stkildathunda Moderator

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    Thought id compile a list of the in form ruckman over the past 5 weeks. Thought it might help people decide who is hot & whos not when trading out Sandi or Smith.

    Ben McEvoy - 136.2
    Todd Goldstein - 127.8
    Dean Cox - 118.8
    Jonathon Griffen - 118
    Brad Ottens - 99.4
    Matthew Leuenberger - 98
    Mark Jamar - 95.6
    Matthew Kruezar - 90.4
    Shane Mumford - 83 (only played 5 games since round 6 or something)

    Darren Jolly - 87.4 (only played 2 since round 5 where scored 114,89 @ 101.5)


    I think it was also mentioned in another thread that noone in the top 20 had McEvoy and 1 person had Goldstein. For those still in contention for overall these guys are the ones to get. Also the way to make up the gap is to get the players that are in form, not cheap guys that you hope will start ripping out big numbers. You could potentially lose 40-50 points for going for a Mumford/Jamar over the others each week until they do hit the big scores...
     
  2. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    Ever heard of not chasing points? Already got burnt on picking up Rioli, Ablett, Adcock, Bartel and Fisher when they are supposedly in good form. McEvoy could easily return to 90s next week.
     
  3. TerryinBangkok

    TerryinBangkok Moderator Staff Member

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    Yamum has Cox/McEvoy.
     
  4. stkildathunda

    stkildathunda Moderator

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    I think that stat was from last week, so might have traded him in this weekend...

    @ The Swert

    Of course i have, but both these guys have ave 130.5 for past 6 weeks. How long do you class it as chasing last weeks points and not a premium player? Every trade you do you run the risk that they could drop 40-50 points the week you bring them in. Even if he they go back to ave 90-100 they are still scoring more then 90% of the rucks.

    Dean Cox is only player that has kept his ave up most season but you take out the 166 he scored 5 weeks ago and he drops to about 100...

    McEvoy/Goldstein are the 2nd & 3rd ranked ruckman for the entire year based on total points. 3rd & 5th based on average (but that has Griffen in at #2 who has only played 5 matches so really 2nd & 4th)

     
  5. Sainter

    Sainter New Member

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    McEvoy comes up against Cox/NicNat this week and ruckmen haven't scored too well this year against te Cox/NicNat combo, overall ruckmen have averaged about 79ppg against them this year. McEvoy won't be getting any assistance with Michael gardiner not making it through the VFL game. I think McEvoy won't get his 130ppg from the past 5 or so weeks, but I think he'll easily top 90+.

    Round 17: Ben McEvoy V Dean Cox/ Nic Naitanui
    Round 18: Ben McEvoy V Sam Jacobs
    Round 19: Ben McEvoy V Z.Smith
    Round 20: Ben McEvoy V Jonathon Griffen/Sandi back?
    Round 21: Ben McEvoy V Darren Jolly
    Round 22: Ben McEvoy V Shane Mumford
    Round 23: Ben McEvoy V Todd Goldstein
    Round 24: Ben McEvoy V Matt Kreuzer/ Matt Warnock

    That's his fixture for the rest of the season.

    Hopefully will score well this week again, that'll prove that he's capable of scoring solid against any ruckmen and a premium upgrade option.
     
  6. Lethaldons

    Lethaldons New Member

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    Well i went the gamble last week and got mumford so time will tell!! hopefully pays of as a big pod!! pretty annoyed last week good dt numbers but sc ratio sucked
     
  7. The_Swert

    The_Swert Active Member

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    I just remember a certain 'upgrade watch' post over at YSCC about 7 weeks ago suggesting how they couldn't see how Adcock could average below 100 for the rest of the year given that he had been averaging 109 up till then and shown great consistency. Since then he has averaged 63 and missed 2 games, so he has effectively averaged only 45 :(
     
  8. Sainter

    Sainter New Member

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    He's a ruckman so I'll post here;

    Happy 22nd Birthday for Ben McEvoy, have a big one this week Macca!
     
  9. jibba

    jibba Member

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    @The_Swert

    I saw that post as well, and accordingly I got Adcock and tripled my ranking.

    Consequently, I no longer bother with those columns from there.
    The advice here tends to be more accurate and I have improved my position a lot more just by acting from my gut feeling.

    @topic

    Completely agree with the saints fans, that McEvoy is the No.1 option for a ruck upgrade right now. No byes, and playing like a machine. The teams that have him, will improve their rankings by a lot solely due to an extra 30-40 points per week over people holding Smith.

    But the question is, is his price just not worth it? Same with the Ablett dilemma last week, you've already missed his 136 avg for the last 5 games. If you need to double trade just to get McEvoy, it could ruin your team if he ends up picking up some kind of injury or not really improve your ranking as much as you hoped if he only pulls a 90-100 avg.

    So the next best value options must be Mumford, Jamar and Jolly, IMO.
    Mumford is undoubtedly the best pick but he has a multi-bye. If you are relying on cover from Petrie during the multi-bye, i'd steer clear with ROK/Goodes/who knows who'll get rested. Only trade in Mumford if you have cover from the likes of Bailey, Vardy or even Keefe.

    Jamar is the solid option, he has no byes left and will score you a solid 90-100 each week, but probably won't get the big 150's which Mumford is capable of.

    The final option is Jolly, who I have myself. He presents the most value, being priced the cheapest. I trusted my gut and brought him in last week with a straight swap from Smith. Not sure I'd be tempted to get him this week with a ~40k upgrade from Smith.
    He is the No.1 ruck from Collingwood, and has no byes. He will score a 100 avg for the rest of the year, and i'm pretty confident he will do that and won't get injured. (fingers crossed)
    He is capable of the big 150+ scores but has shown that he can ~70 games as well. I'm confident there won't be many down games as Mick himself stated that Jolly would be the no.1 ruck without Wood (which greatly affected his scoring last year)

    This turned out to be a long rant, but to conclude, McEvoy is the best option in terms of scoring but not so in terms of the well being of your team if you need to pull funds and sacrifice elsewhere.
    I think Mumford is the guy you want in your team THIS week, Jolly was LAST week.

     
  10. stkildathunda

    stkildathunda Moderator

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    Good points Jibba. But also in terms of overall position at this stage of the season you really do want to miss bringing in players that have a bye still to come, multi bye or not. As you would need to have quality backup for that week as potentially cost you alot of points.


     
  11. jibba

    jibba Member

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    Yea, that's why I think you should get Mumford if you have the likes of Vardy, Bailey as cover or even very solid FWD cover (very rare) if you are covering with Petrie

    Ideally you WANT McEvoy, but most people who are looking for a ruck upgrade at this stage in the season, are those with Smith.
    If they don't have that 170k just lying in the bank, they will have to double trade, which might cost them donuts later in the season if they don't have many trades.

    That's why the cheaper options in Mumford/Jolly are much more attractive as if they have a lazy 40-50k sitting in the bank, just one trade upgrade.

    Most people would be envious of you guys SKT, picking up McEvoy when he was at a reasonable price ;)
     

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