SC 2013 perfect game

Discussion in 'AFL' started by Agent Orange, Oct 26, 2013.

  1. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Does anyone have or know how to get a spreadsheet containing the 2013 Supercoach scores and salaries by round for each of the ~677 players that played at least one match during the regular 2013 season?
     
  2. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Got it, just the scores and salaries, scraped together from 677 individual footywire.com pages. Now for the more difficult part, reverse engineering the winning team ... The winner had a total score of52,881 but I haven't been able to find out anything about his (trading) strategy ... hence the reverse engineering attempt.Will this be a challenging exercise ... yes. If successful, will this help me for 2014, who knows? Of course this is only interesting if this is not known yet, so if I'm wasting my time, let me know!
     
  3. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    I saw an analysis of winner of the previous years trading strategy, I haven't seen one for this years, but I suspect it exists.
     
  4. hawks14

    hawks14 Guest

  5. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Great, thanks!
     
  6. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Good stuff, some good lessons in there I think. It does make me wonder though, was his winning strategy truly great or 'just' better than the rest and there was a whole lot more to be had, just nobody did it ... the ultimate strategy (and how much better is it than the winning strategy) ... It's still too long until the start of the next season so I may have a crack at it now that my initial intention has already been answered.
     
  7. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    The whole game of Supercoach reduced to a relatively small number of lines of code, however of course a gazillion possible strategies, trades, etc. Cue a supercomputer ... anyone have a spare?
     
  8. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    So this has turned into a quest for the Supercoach 2013 Perfect Game. DimmaWits did a great job scoring 52,881 and beating everyone else, no doubt about that, but of course it wasn't a PERFECT GAME - nobody will achieve that, but theoretically it is possible.
    What do you think the PERFECT SCORE for 2013 was? How close did we all get (DimmaWits closest)?
    I think I have the answer, but am in the process of validating it. Let me know your guess (no prices for best guess though).
     
  9. hawks14

    hawks14 Guest

    i worked it out ages ago 2368
     
  10. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Is that average per round?
     
  11. hawks14

    hawks14 Guest

    Yes but factor in -40 occassionally for players not performing. I wont give away my tactics for obvious reasons
     
  12. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Cheers. So that would make a score of 54,464 and add another 1k for your occasional -40 for non-performing players. That sounds like a realistic ultimate score.
    I think I have worked out (I'm 95% sure I have it correct - prove me wrong if I'm not!) that the theoretical ultimate score is 62,464 - that is of course with 100% hindsight making the perfect initial team selection, every single perfect trade and every single perfect captain selection.
    I'm just working out the trades and will post all details later on. For now I have the initial team selection to achieve this score:
    <table border='0' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='339' style='border-collapse: collapse; width: 255pt;] <col width='64' style='width: 48pt;[/img] <col width='158' style='width: 119pt;[/img] <col width='117' style='width: 88pt;[/img]
    <td class='xl63' style='height: 15pt; width: 48pt;]Position <td class='xl63' style='width: 119pt;]Player <td class='xl63' style='width: 88pt;]Team

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D1 Brett Goodes Western Bulldogs

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D2 Corey Enright Geelong

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D3 Lachlan Henderson Carlton

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D4 Michael Hibberd Essendon

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D5 Robert Murphy Western Bulldogs

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D6 Scott Thompson North Melbourne

    <td style='height: 15pt;](d1) Brandon Ellis Richmond

    <td style='height: 15pt;](d2) Brendon Goddard Essendon

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M1 (Cap) Gary Ablett Gold Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M2 Dane Swan Collingwood

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M3 Jack Steven St Kilda

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M4 Joel Selwood Geelong

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M5 Leigh Montagna St Kilda

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M6 Ryan Griffen Western Bulldogs

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M7 Scott Pendlebury Collingwood

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M8 Thomas Liberatore Western Bulldogs

    <td style='height: 15pt;](m1) Jimmy Bartel Geelong

    <td style='height: 15pt;](m2) Steve Johnson Geelong

    <td style='height: 15pt;]R1 Todd Goldstein North Melbourne

    <td style='height: 15pt;]R2 Tom Nicholls Gold Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;](r1) Dean Cox West Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;](r2) Will Minson Western Bulldogs

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F1 Andrew Walker Carlton

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F2 Drew Petrie North Melbourne

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F3 Dustin Martin Richmond

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F4 Nick Riewoldt St Kilda

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F5 Tom Rockliff Brisbane

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F6 Brent Harvey North Melbourne

    <td style='height: 15pt;](f1) Jarryd Roughead Hawthorn

    <td style='height: 15pt;](f2) Lynden Dunn Melbourne

     
  13. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Oops that was round 17, round 1 is:
    <table border='0' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='339' style='border-collapse: collapse; width: 255pt;] <col width='64' style='width: 48pt;[/img] <col width='158' style='width: 119pt;[/img] <col width='117' style='width: 88pt;[/img]
    <td class='xl65' style='height: 15pt; width: 48pt;]Position <td class='xl65' style='width: 119pt;]Player <td class='xl65' style='width: 88pt;]Team

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D1 Brett Goodes Western Bulldogs

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D2 Charlie Dixon Gold Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D3 Dylan Roberton St Kilda

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D4 Jasper Pittard Port Adelaide

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D5 Michael Hibberd Essendon

    <td style='height: 15pt;]D6 Pearce Hanley Brisbane

    <td style='height: 15pt;](d1) Dean Terlich Melbourne

    <td style='height: 15pt;](d2) Nick Vlastuin Richmond

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M1 (Cap) Gary Ablett Gold Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M2 Angus Monfries Port Adelaide

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M3 Ben Howlett Essendon

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M4 Chad Wingard Port Adelaide

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M5 Kane Cornes Port Adelaide

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M6 Oliver Wines Port Adelaide

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M7 Richard Douglas Adelaide

    <td style='height: 15pt;]M8 Scott Pendlebury Collingwood

    <td style='height: 15pt;](m1) Jaeger O'Meara Gold Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;](m2) Matt Jones Melbourne

    <td style='height: 15pt;]R1 Todd Goldstein North Melbourne

    <td style='height: 15pt;]R2 Will Minson Western Bulldogs

    <td style='height: 15pt;](r1) Sam Rowe Carlton

    <td style='height: 15pt;](r2) Tom Nicholls Gold Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F1 Andrew Walker Carlton

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F2 Dustin Martin Richmond

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F3 Jimmy Bartel Geelong

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F4 Joshua Kennedy West Coast

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F5 Justin Westhoff Port Adelaide

    <td style='height: 15pt;]F6 Nick Riewoldt St Kilda

    <td style='height: 15pt;](f1) Sam Dwyer Collingwood

    <td style='height: 15pt;](f2) Sam Kerridge Adelaide

     
  14. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Trades: <ul> <li>Round 01: none</li> <li>Round 02: none</li> <li>Round 03:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Howlett (Ess)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Cloke (Col)</li> <li>Round 04:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Monfires(PtA)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Hanley(Bri)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Petrie (Nth)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Thompson (Nth)</li> <li>Round 05:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Pittard(PtA)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Westhoff(PtA)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Ellis (Ric)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Johnson (Gee)</li> <li>Round 06:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Dixon(GC)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Wines(PtA)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Henderson (Car)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Dangerfield (Ade)</li> <li>Round 07:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Wingard(PtA)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Cloke(Col)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Steven (StK)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Griffin (WB)</li> <li>Round 08:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Cornes(PtA)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Riewoldt (StK)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Barlow (Fre)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Naitanui (WC)</li> <li>Round 09:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Roberton(StK)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Jones(Mel)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Goodes (Syd)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Goddard (Ess)</li> <li>Round 10:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Kennedy (WC)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Dwyer(Col)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] [span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Swan (Col)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Mitchell (Syd)</li> <li>Round 11:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Goodes (Syd)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Vlastuin (Ric)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Cox (WC)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Shaw (Col)</li> <li>Round 12:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Naitanui (WC)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Douglas (Ade)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Kerridge (Ade)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] [span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Roughead (Haw)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Murphy (WB)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Liberatore (WB)</li> <li>Round 13:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Shaw (Col)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] O'Meara (GC)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Dangerfield (Ade)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Enright (Gee)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Selwood (Gee)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Montagna (StK)</li> <li>Round 14:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Barlow (Fre)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Harvey (Nth)</li> <li>Round 15:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Rowe (Car)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Rockliff (Bri)</li> <li>Round 16:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Terlich (Mel)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Dunn (Mel)</li> <li>Round 17:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Mitchell (Syd)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Riewoldt (StK)</li> <li>Round 18:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out - Goodes (WB)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Sloane (Ade)</li> <li>Round 19: none</li> <li>Round 20: none</li> <li>Round 21:[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Out -Griffin (WB)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Thompson (Nth)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] [span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] In - Geary (StK)[span class='Apple-tab-span' style='white-space: pre;] Thompson (Ade)</li> <li>Round 22: none</li> <li>Round 23: none</li> </ul> Screenshots of weekly line-ups to come.
     
  15. walesy

    walesy Administrator Staff Member

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    I need to visit these forums more often! That's good reading Agent!
    There's so much side-ways trading in that! A handful of starting rookies, and a truck load of cash poured into the forward line.
     
  16. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    It proves perfection can only be achieved with the ability to see into the future, no strategy would recommend that trade list.
     
  17. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

    Thanks Walesy. It was a nice distraction (from the things I should be doing) to work it out. I may do a progressive analysis for season 2014 - week by week, to determine the perfect game up until that point.
    I haven't looking into the initial team & trades yet, to classify them as injury-triggered, money makers, side-ways, upgrades, etc. because to be honest I don't know enough about the AFL players to quickly determine this.
    What did surprise me to start with is the ~20% upside to the winner - or maybe it's just evidence of the 80-20 rule, 80% skill - 20% luck.
     
  18. melbandy

    melbandy Active Member

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    Belief in the 80/20 rule is what keeps me coming back. If only I could get my skill level up to 80%. In poker luck plays a 30% part in any given hand. As a result I'm used to only achieving a 70% skill level.
     
  19. Len

    Len Cockburn Knightrider Staff Member

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    melbandy wrote:
    Belief in the 80/20 rule is what keeps me coming back. If only I could get my skill level up to 80%. In poker luck plays a 30% part in any given hand. As a result I'm used to only achieving a 70% skill level. Well, that explains my problem Andy, I like roulette :)
     
  20. Agent Orange

    Agent Orange Guest

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