Some more from Champion Data

Discussion in 'Blog' started by sammygee, Mar 20, 2012.

By sammygee on Mar 20, 2012 at 11:00 AM
  1. sammygee

    sammygee New Member

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    Last year, you might remember, <a href="http://tooserious.net/from-inside-the-world-of-champion-data">Champion Data allowed us to ask them questions[/url], answering honestly and revealing quite a bit about what goes on behind the curtain.

    Well, theyve done it again, allowing us to ask some more of what goes on, and to clear up some of the little things that have been on our minds.

    As with last year, a massive thanks to Karl Jackson, one of the statisticians at Champion Data for doing this.
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    TS: We saw a massive change in the scoring of rucks last year, due to the sub rule and some tinkering on CDs part to their formula. Will that remain the same this year or will their be some adjustments.

    KJ: No change to the formula this year, so as long as the number one ruck keeps playing high game time, numbers will stay high.

    TS: Looking at the "scoring model" on the SuperCoach site, it looks like the value of clangers has changed from last year (ie: Its now -6 for a clanger handball, rather than a flat -4 for any clanger). Is this something thats happened on your end? Or just the SuperCoach site catching up to previous changes?

    KJ: This was just the SuperCoach site not being updated. Changes have now been made.

    TS: In the prospectus, weve notice numerous mentions of "pressure acts", are you able to elaborate on that? and do they effect ones SuperCoach scores?

    KJ: Pressure Acts are when you put the opposition ball-carrier under pressure by either making physical contact or by reducing their decision making time by corralling, closing in on them or by chasing from behind. At this stage these do not affect SuperCoach scores, since the majority of pressure acts that are “effective” are rewarded by a tackle or smother. They may be included in future seasons.

    TS: Will there be any attempt to look at the "burn rate" of midfield possessions that lead directly to the hot spot and/or a goal?
    I know there are points for scoring assists, but often the assist comes from a game situation 2 plays previous which created the loose man.

    KJ: This is the first I’ve heard of a “burn rate” so I couldn’t tell you. Are you asking about “Score Assist” Assists? Assists are in the system to reward who put teammates in a direct scoring situation uncontested. The further you get from goal, the less effect every action has on the outcome of the chain of possession, so I doubt this will be introduced.

    TS: Are there moves afoot to try to look at the "go the other way" factor? If Swan/Judd plays and gets 30 possessions but his opponents get 28 the other way, is he less valuable than someone who gets 20 but restricts his man to 15?

    KJ: Using the Swan/Judd example, this might be feasible, but the problem is that it has to be a blanket rule for all players. It’s impossible to have 18 match-ups 100% correct all of the time, so to attribute negative points to a player because their “opponent” won the footy would be a bit harsh. Think about this question next time you see a stoppage in the middle of the ground with 16 players in the vicinity and that should be a good enough answer!

    TS: Is there any way to reward KPDs more, or is it just the nature of their game that they are generally seen to be unskilled and negating due to the nature of their role, rather than creative? I just think a game where Taylor shuts down Franklin (but does little else) should be rewarded more than a couple of chips under limited pressure around a half back line by a player like Adcock.

    KJ: Good point, but what if Franklin rolls his ankle 30 seconds into the game and stands in the goal square all day? Geelong dominate the midfield battle so Hawthorn rarely get it inside and Buddy has no change to have an impact on the game. Should Harry Taylor still have his score bumped up just because he’s playing on an injured player in a team that is getting smashed? Keep in mind that SuperCoach is a completely objective rating system, so there’s no way of introducing any opinion/bias into the equation.

    One thing that we are doing this year is recording every one-on-one contest that happens in a game. We’re hoping that this will give us much more detailed information about key defenders, so that may be a possible inclusion in 2013.

    TS: Is there anything recorded about the effectiveness of a tackle? Pendlebury gets 150 the last few seasons but he hardly does much more than a cursory arm grab, where other players such as Bolton play a junkyard dog, and make a lot more stoppages.

    KJ: Tackles are only paid if they either force a stoppage, a rewarded with a free kick or force an ineffective disposal. If you’re all over your opponent but they still manage to get a handball away you’re not going to be given a tackle. We do grade tackles when we are analysing players/teams, but this hasn’t flowed through to a different value in the SuperCoach formula. Could be a chance in the future.
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by sammygee, Mar 20, 2012.

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