Strategy Insight - Make The Most Of What Youve Got

Hey everybody,
For the most part of my time on TS I've tried to watch from afar, out of humilty more than anything, but I've started the season pretty well and decided to share some of my ideas this week. Hopefully some of it might inspire you to look at something from a different angle.

The central idea is around my plan to minimise trades until I need them. I plan on making one, and one alone, this week, but should ideally be locked in to my team for the short-term future.
To do this successfully I'll have to play around with structures to make sure I have the best on-field unit at all times.

This was my team last week:
B:Gibbs, Goddard, Broughton, Grimes, Heppell, Lower, Duigan
(Pederson, Stanley, Buckley)
M:Swan, Pendlebury, Judd, Deledio, Liberatore, Harris,
(Selwood, Conca, Atley)
R:Sandi, Cox (Smith, Petrie)
F:N. Riewoldt, Franklin, Pavlich, Yarran, Tapscott, Darling, Krakouer
(McKernan, Richardson, Matera)

This week I've made some slight changes:
B:Gibbs, Goddard,Deledio, Broughton, Grimes, Heppell, Lower,
(Pederson, Stanley, Duigan)
M:Swan, Pendlebury, Judd, Selwood, Liberatore, Harris,
(Buckley, Conca, Curnow)
R:Sandi, Cox (Smith, Petrie)
F:N. Riewoldt, Franklin, Pavlich, Yarran, Tapscott, McKernan, Krakouer
(Darling, Richardson, Matera)

I've recognised that thanks to Libba and Harris and the return of Selwood I've got a much stronger midfield sooner than I anticipated, so I've moved Deledio back, swapping with Buckley, giving me a much deeper backline than last week.
Hoping for 700-800 from the backs. Lids has good history against Hawks and Lower should play out a full game after being subbed last week.
Duigan moves to the bench as I imagine there will be limited rations for Carlton players this week.
Selwood comes back to the mids, Lib stays on to run amok against GC, and Harris stays as he's shown an ability to score big even when his side is destroyed.
Curnow in for Atley, but not to be used just yet.
With Swan captain, I see 900-1000. points being a reachable total from the midfield.
Rucks speak for themselves. 200-240 points
I'm sticking by Yarran up forward, not expecting the world but I'll be hoping for 70 points, anything above is a bonus.
Also moving Darling as a gut feel as playing in Adelaide is tough for a first-time forward.
650-700 points target for forwards.

So, predicted score range is from 2450-2740

The side scored 2,418 last week.

I know there are mitigating factors, and obviously some of these moves will rely on teams being named as I hope, but I've potentially generated an extra 100-200 points from last week's team without trading anybody on to the ground.
If it works, I'll be a very happy man.

Anybody have ideas of their own? Or better yet, anybody see any glaring flaws in my logic/assumptions?

Keen to hear feedback.

 

Apologies for the format...I put in line breaks but they don't look like they've come through.

 

I think your predicted score range is a little excessive - I would say 2300-2500.

Apart from that your theory of not trading until necessary is sound, however we do have a few extra trades this year so you can afford to be more aggressive with your trades.

My feeling is if you are too conservative with your trades you will fall further behind the pack as your goal should be to complete your team as soon as possible.

It is a delicate balance as you dont want to be too aggressive (as i was last year) but after Lucas' analysis of the trades made by last year's winner, he won it by making good trades early. I finished top 100 last year and the differences between the teams were minimal, however I was more bullish with my trades. So finding the balance of aggressive trading and conservative logic is the key.

 

Yeah...scores are skewed towards the "hopeful" end of the spectrum...My excitement for the weekend may have gotten to me there.
Still, I'd be upset with anything less than 2400 as it would mean I've gone backwards.

 

Fully upgrading your midfield by round 7-8 depends on whether you went 3 or 4 premium starters in the mids or not, surely.

 

<blockquote>Quote from Lucas on April 7, 2011, 14:01
I think Midge you're spot on with your side. Not much difference from the majority. That said, how are you going to reel in Meataxe?
</blockquote>

This is the question I've been pondering all week.

Currently I'm sitting 142 points behind Meataxe and can not think of any intelligent way to reel those points back in. The differences boil down to:

(Meataxe/The Hornswagglers)

Judd vs Murphy
Dal Santo vs Bartel
O'Keefe vs Grimey

The Rookies will even out this week as I'l probably grab Curnow and Meataxe will probably draft in Libba, yet I think structurally Meataxe has an advantage by going 5 premiums in the Fwd line over my 5 in defence.

Given that I've lost 140 points from O'Keefe beating Grimey and Curnow beating Libba/Swallow over two rounds, is there anything I can do other than sit tight and hope the few POD's in premiums fall my way?

It feels a bit sad to think that I'm sitting in 43rd place in Round 2 and the most sensible thing to do is concede that victory is out of grasp and good finish (Top 100-200) is the only realistic aim.

 

It is going to come down to the timing of your trades mixed with a little bit of luck. It could be as simple as brining in Chappy one week before Meataxe does and that week one of his rookies that he has on the ground fails.

If his rookies fail during the multibye weeks when he has Goodes/ROK and Buddy/Rioli on the pine and you have a extra premium or two on the ground could be enough to bridge the gap.

My plan at this point is at:
R7 upgrade yarran to ROK/rioli
R8 duigan down curnow up to a premium mid
R9 premium back (enright?)
R10-11 ablett or watson depending on form

 

Thanks for the advice L6. Sadly I don't know how applicable it is.


We both went Rioli/Franklin and Grimey and O'Keefe share the same R5 bye cancelling out any premium advantage. Upgrading to Chappy/Pav R7 is the plan, but with my team having a lack of any genuine mid-pricers (300-400k), that early upgrade is fraught with difficulty.


So basically I'm at a position where I have to bank on Smith and Swallow making a dent in that 140 point difference in R5-6.

And Batchelor being one playing round ahead of Lestor/Stanley to make enough difference in tempo.

The probabilities don't seem to be on my side.

 

Hornsy hang tough, least your there or there abouts no need to take unneccesery risks this early

 

Yarran will end up top 5, Lucas, you just watch...ok...back to reality. Short term, I think meataxe's B7 is an area I can gain a little...(going off his team last week. If Lower can continue his good form he should outscore any of MA's options by 20-30 points. Some POD's in the midfield...Selwood could be the key for me if he plays well. He's missing Cyril upfront this week, too. So there are a few ways to peg him back, mind you I'm only looking at ways I can beat him, not lose to him. I'll suffer on ROK if he keeps up his form for example. Long-term though there is so little difference between most teams that I think, as a car-race can be won in the Pits, this will by and large be won by trades. As Liquid said, it could be as simple as grabbing Chapman a week earlier, or having the wrong rookie fail at the wrong time. For now I'll be happy to hold my ground, maybe inch up, and hope for some luck in making the right calls at the right times.

 

@Fez

I concur, although I don't really have any other sensible options other than to hang tough. Everyone is performing, his POD's just a little better though.

@Midge

Meataxe has Lower.

 

Rioli out this week is the biggest opportunity to claw some of those points back on any of the leaders as the majority have Rioli. So this is the week you want the forward rookies to fall in a heap!

....that is of course if you dont have Rioli, like me

 

Speak for yourself L6

Rookies (in particular Charlie Dixon) don't listen to this man!

Charlie Sheen is not the voice of reason!

 

<blockquote>Quote from Hornsy on April 7, 2011, 16:42
Speak for yourself L6

Rookies (in particular Charlie Dixon) don't listen to this man!

Charlie Sheen is not the voice of reason!</blockquote>
haha Dixon is fine

I have my eye on a Darling failure in particular

 

An ROK 65 point game is my hope. Man, that'd be sweet.