The sub rule is making me nervous about any guys not starting on the park. Do you play Conca ahead of Libba with Libba starting on the bench? Libba will almost certainly be in the 21, but is there a big enough potential points difference between the two rookies to warrant taking the risk? It's going to be very tricky assessing the likelihood of your player being the guy on the bench who gets the vest. Atley, Buckley, Gaff, Prestia, Curnow..... how much weight does the possibility of a bench player starting as the sub have on your starting line-up? For me, I think I'll play Conca over Liberatore just to be safe.
Just for the record, subs can be chosen from anyone in 22. Not just from 4 on the interchange bench, in case that's a misconception floating around. I'm a bit wary of Libba starting or finishing as a sub this week. Actually, I'm a bit unsure of the prospects of any 1st year midfielder playing out a whole game given how many teams were out on their feet with the reduced interchange bench. Except Swallow, GC have to give him a full game.
Wal I was just about to put up a post (rant?) on pretty much the same thing but didn't know where to look until I saw your post ! Currently for Rd 2 I have duigan on field as D7 and toy as an emg even though I rate toy as a stronger player and think that he could get quite a bit of the ball dwon back. My hangup is Toy being named on Gold Coasts bench and the potenetial loss of 30-35 points from his score. If Toy was starting I would switch them. I am not a massive risk taker in SC (or DT) but what do people think of having a Fantsy D7 (or a Fantasy emg for that matter) named on a 4 man AFL interchnage bench? My thinking is that those on a 4 man bench for Sat have a 1 in 4 chance of starting as a sub and missing around 1/2 a game, and a 3 in 4 chnace of not being the initial sub with (optimiatically) a 1 in 21 chnace of then being the 2nd sub and mkissing around 1/2 a game. So being a starting sub would take about 1/8th (or 7/56ths) of the likely points and being a second sub take about 1/56th of the likely points, . So this means for a 70 point scorer they would miss around 8/56ths = 1/7th= 10 points (or thereabouts) making them about a 60 point player instead. Clearly you might make the wrong decision if you get spooked about dropping 35 points and go for a 55 point player (who has a 1 in 21 chnace of getting subbed off) instead of a 70 point player. I am hoping a few stats minded someone may agree (more or less) with my logic regarding likely points impacts. If so I should be able to work up the courage to switch duigan and toy !! Cheers TTH
Hornsy, I was under the impression that the sub would come from the bench players. Surely in practice this will be the case, even if theoretically it can be any player. There may be rare occasions when it's not the case but I think the vast majority of subs will come from the bench players. As far as I am aware this was the case for all the round one teams. TTH, I think playing it safe this week could be the way to go. There's not enough exposed form to really justify putting a 'possible' sub ahead of a guy named on the park. But there will be exceptions even this early. I'm happy to have Mitch Duncan on the field even though he's named on the bench. It wouldn't be hard to justify the same risk for someone like Curnow. I think avoiding the bench might help some of those 50-50 calls but in the end we'll have a lot of players during the year who we cross our fingers on.
Hornsy....this media release from the AFL in January states that: "For the 2011 premiership season, AFL clubs will be required to nominate one of their bench players as a substitute player." http://www.fiveaa.com.au/article_afl-clarify-substitution-rule_106990
My point being is that the four players named on the bench on Thursday/Friday are not necessarily the four that will start on the bench come Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Case in point Krak this week. Lucas last week.
<blockquote>Quote from Hornsy on April 2, 2011, 12:17 My point being is that the four players named on the bench on Thursday/Friday are not necessarily the four that will start on the bench come Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Case in point Krak this week. Lucas last week. </blockquote> Good point Hornsy. Looks like a bit of russian roullette until we get a feel for the players coaches prefer to sub on/off.
Thanks for that spud, been checking the useless AFL site for this info for the past half hour!!! Why the hell can't the AFL get these sub announcements on the site as soon as team sheets are in - they brought this rule in, so it's up to them to inform the general public straight away instead of leaving it till half hour before the game starts!!!
Hehe I feel your pain mate. They're not the best at the moment. Shaw getting subbed off for Krak might hurt a few people.