We continue our trek through our reviews of every clubs supercoach season, today taking a look at that club we all love to hate, Carlton. Todays review is thanks to Hornsy. I was going to do my own little review of their overall season but have decided to leave this one as it was delivered to me. Im not sure if i agree with Hornsy with his opening paragraph, but hell they can dream cant they. Anyway have a read over the break.
<!--more-->Ah, Carlton. To us supporters theyre known as the Navy Blues, to all others theyre no doubt regarded as their second team. And an improving second team at that. 14 and a half wins in the home and away season in an era of equalisation and salary caps is a pretty good return. Pre-tty good.
But enough baiting, lets head on to some dry statistical analysis. As my rat-headed carnival working cousins say "Hop on the trolley"!
Carlton monopolise possession; both on the inside and outside so to speak. Ranking 1st in least Opponent Disposals and 2nd in both Short Kicks and Marks taken, as well as 1st in least Opponent Clearances, 2nd in Clearances and 2nd in Contested Possessions Differential vs Opponent. They also rank 4th for KE% @ 67.7% and 7th for DE% @ 72.8%.
Thats all well and good I hear you moan, but how exactly is it fantasy relevant?
Along with scoring goals, getting the ball and keeping the ball is a pretty good way to score points in SC. So Id look at players from Carlton who are pretty good at doing those things; explosive ball-winners and defensive midfield sweepers.
Premiums (The Good)
Marc Murphy, at the age of 24, has had what could be termed a "breakout breakout" season. Playing all 22 games and averaging 118 over the year, Murphy jumped from ordinary premium to the 5th best scoring midfielder in the competition. The improvement came on the back of improving his number of contested possessions (9th Overall) and score assists (7th), and he got close to magical 30 disposals per game mark, averaging 29. Always a pretty consistent scorer, Murphy failed to crack the ton in only 3 games, his lowest score a 79, to go with 2 90s.
66% ke, 74% de
Chris Judd continued to be Chris Judd. If you dont know him by now, youll never ever, ever etc. 7th in tackles, 4th in contested possessions, 1st in scoring assists. Played 22, averaged 116 and close to 3 Brownlow votes per game. Nuff said really.
61% ke, 67% de
Heath Scotland had a year out of the box. Sort of. Hes actually averaged 102 over the last 6 years, but at the age of 30 going into the season Im sure most thought that he would begin to slide. I did, but he didnt. He averaged 104 over the 22 games, including 26 disposals at a Goddard-esue 80% DE. He was also 7th in the league for long kicks.
78% ke, 80% de
Bryce Gibbs frustrates both footy and fantasy footy watchers alike. I gather that they think he could be doing more, yet his results say hes probably done enough. The 4th highest averaging defender with 103 ppg and 24 disposals a game. Gibbs took the 2nd most marks for the year and had the 4th most kicks, and along with Scotland, is the most prominent example of what Carlton do when theyre not winning the ball out of a stoppage.
69% ke, 74% de
Midpricers (The Bad-ish)
There was only really one mid-priced option being seriously considered from Carlton pre-season 2011. Chris Yarran. He was a contentious selection, and even more contentious a selection after a Round 1 performance where he was tagged out of the game (32) by Richmonds Matt White. Yet over the course of the season Yarran played 21 and has averaged 88 for the season (8 hungys, 14 scores >80). A rise of 27 ppg from 2010, and a better F7-8 option than Higgins, LeCras and JRoo.
Ultimately though, 88ppg is not really good enough for a premium forward. The silver lining for 2012 though is that Yarran is only about 10 ppg off being a premium forward or defender. Given that he managed an averaged an 88 off just 18 disposals at a pretty tasty 76% efficiency, it should not be a huge leap.
Also lead the league in running bounces. Hard to believe.
75% ke, 76% de
Just as the Oracle predicted pre-season, Kade Simpson fell as a premium in 2011, 5 ppg in fact. But I never really considered him a true premium, and Im sure most out there didnt pick him up this year. Kades actually had a good year, he just suffered from others eating his points (Murphy, Mr Robinson)
64% ke, 71% de
Matty Kruezer also suffered a fall in ppg in 2011, although not from such lofty heights ironically. Coming back from an ACL, Kreuzer played less time in the ruck and consequently averaged 6 less hit outs and 1 less tackle per game. Averaged 75 points per game, but showed what he was capable of in R13 with a 150 point, 24 disposal game against Sydney.
The Ugly
Carlton kicked more behinds than anyone else. It sucked. Also, tall players getting injured.
Who To Pick in 2012
Pre-season form and fitness withstanding, Murphy, Judd and Gibbs should be in most peoples calculations. Many will hesitate on Scotland due to his age, and Ill most likely back in Yarran to steal some of his points. Overall, its far too early to call, but those are the 5 players Id consider backing in to be the only premiums from Carlton.
Kruezer would have to show a lot in the pre-season for me to pick him next year, but hes more than capable. Also, Ive been burned too many times by ruck injuries so Im extra wary.
On the bargain side of town, theres only really two that Id recommend. Kane Lucas kinda screwed us all by scoring 78 in the last game of the season, but with an average of 59 over two games in 2011 coming into his 3rd season, hes definitely a player that Id look at. Especially if he gets an injury discount.
The other player that Id consider is entirely dependent on whether or onto he can shake his injuries. And thats a big if. Paul Bower played 3, largely sub-affected, games for an average of 29. Even without an injury discount he will be at a basement price. Given that he can average mid 80s when fit and in form, you really cant lose at what his price will be. Unless, he doesnt get on the park. Which is very possible.
Supercoach Season Review: Carlton
Discussion in 'Blog' started by obione05, Sep 7, 2011.
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Discussion in 'Blog' started by obione05, Sep 7, 2011.