Some of you may have already <a target='_blank' href='http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/serious-supercoach-which-is-the-best-selection-strategy-guns-and-rookies-or-midprice-mayhem/story-fni5f3gz-1226824934845]read this previously[/url]; however, read on if you haven't
GUNS AND ROOKIES v MID-PRICERS
In simple terms, the guns and rookies (GNR&rdquo approach is to start the year with a mix of low-priced players (rookies) and high-priced premium players. Generally having 15 bargain basement players in your squad would leave enough funds under the salary cap to pick up 15 of the best players in the competition.
On the other hand, the mid-price approach opts for more players who are valued between $200,000 and $500,000. While you still need premium players and rookies under this strategy, it allows for more of a balance of similarly priced players across the field.
Using more expensive mid-priced players instead of rookies does not leave enough money for nearly as many premium players in your line-up. A mid-price structure could vary anywhere between three and 13 mid-priced players, depending on your fancy and how many risks you want to take.
The main advantage of the latter approach is that mid-pricers will ideally have greater job security than rookie-priced players, playing more games when you need them on the field early in the season.
They will also generally score more points than rookie-priced players, although this is offset by having fewer premium players.
The aim is to try to pick players who will become premium players during the season. These can often be found by looking for players who are returning after long-term injuries, have changed clubs or role in their team, or who are set for a breakout season.
ARE MID-PRICERS WORTH THE PUNT?
It is not always easy to identify mid-pricers that will do well enough to justify picking them in our starting squads.
Last season there were only about 10 players who started mid-priced, improved in value and finished in the top 10 pointscorers for their position. Although this is a quarter of all players who finished top 10 in their position, it represents roughly only 2 per cent of all mid-pricers in the game.
These players from 2013 were:
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<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Name
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<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Club
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<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Position
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<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Starting price
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Highest price
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Average points
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Matthew Leuenberger
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Bri
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Ruck
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$301,100
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$507,100
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]97
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Matthew Stokes
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Gee
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Fwd
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$348,100
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$496,800
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]97
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Michael Hibberd
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Ess
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Def/Mid
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$395,100
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$510,600
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]96
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Andrew Walker
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Car
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Fwd/Mid
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$423,400
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$553,700
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]106
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Andrew Mackie
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Gee
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Def
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$425,100
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$457,000
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]87
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Justin Westhoff
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]PA
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Fwd
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$430,700
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$577,300
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]99
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Tom Liberatore
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]WB
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Mid
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$444,400
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$553,900
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]107
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Robert Murphy
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]WB
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Def
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$453,000
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$514,200
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]99
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Jack Steven
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]StK
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Mid
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$480,800
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$581,800
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]110
<td valign='top' style='width: 126.25pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Todd Goldstein
<td valign='top' style='width: 41.05pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]NMK
<td valign='top' style='width: 57.75pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]Ruck
<td valign='top' style='width: 76.2pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$497,900
<td valign='top' style='width: 80.65pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]$586,500
<td valign='top' style='width: 89.8pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: none solid solid none; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;]114
Something most SuperCoaches strive for is to finish the season with a fully upgraded team &mdash; premium players in all 22 on-field positions, all in the top 10 of their respective positions.
With a limited number of trades, you not only need to use them wisely, but also to set your team up at the beginning to get the most value out of your trades.
This is a big part of why GNR is generally considered a stronger approach than a mid-price strategy. Not only do you have fewer positions needing to be upgraded (with more premiums already in your starting team), as the season progresses rookie-priced players will rise in price more easily, quickly and predictably than mid-priced players, allowing more value for your trades and more potential to fully upgrade your team.
The value of a trade and how much each one must earn in profit or points to be worthwhile is important to consider, because there are very few mid-pricers who rise enough in value to match what many rookies do easily.
In 2013, 20 players finished with a salary at least $200,000 greater than their starting price and only one started as a mid-pricer (Lachie Neale). There were actually 31 players who peaked in price greater than $200k higher than they started the season; and of those 31, Wingard and Leuenberger were the only other mid-pricers to join Neale.
TWO BOB EACH WAY
Selecting the right mid-pricer who has a breakout year could be the defining decision of your season, but so could the decision not to take on a risky player.
Both strategies have merit, thus most coaches will end up combining the two in some way.
A proven successful tactic is to select your team using a less-strict version of the GNR approach, allowing for a couple of mid-pricers. However, it may be difficult to stop at a couple this year, given the amount of tempting mid-pricers available including Matt Suckling, Shaun Atley, Dale Thomas, Sharrod Wellingham, Brodie Smith and Aaron Sandilands, to name just a few.
Hopefully you can pick that mid-pricer who breaks out this year, while also having enough solid rookies who can generate the cash you need to win.
SuperCoach structures: G'n'R or Mid-Price
Discussion in 'Blog' started by anthak, Feb 26, 2014.
Comments
Discussion in 'Blog' started by anthak, Feb 26, 2014.