SuperCoach Team Selection

Discussion in 'Blog' started by walesy, Feb 5, 2014.

By walesy on Feb 5, 2014 at 11:00 AM
  1. walesy

    walesy Administrator Staff Member

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    SuperCoach is opening for another year which, for us die hards, is the fantasy equivalent of Christmas/New Year's. There's a box of new toys to play with and a fresh season with infinite potential.



    This could be the year your research, analysis, gut feel and, of course, a little bit of luck all come together to see you standing above all others in September as the 2014 SuperCoach.



    But we're a long way from those lofty dreams of glory. Your initial team selection is the critical foundation on which the whole season rests.



    So how do I, a SuperCoach with many years of experience and a pretty solid footy knowledge, go about selecting my squad?



    The first step is research. You have to know the game to win the game, and to know the game you need to know the teams, the players and in particular, know what is going to change from last year. You also need to be comfortable with the fantasy strategies which can best help you turn that football knowledge into SuperCoach success.



    When sitting down in front of a screen, putting my squad together, the first thing I look for is value. There is often great value to be found in players who were injury-affected last year as, overall, they have a lower average for the year and they generally attract discounts in their pricing. Yes, there is significant risk in picking this type of player, but nailing them is essential for any successful SuperCoach. Some examples are Suckling, who missed the year with an ACL, McIntosh, Daisy and Sandilands whose performances were hindered through injury. These players have attracted discounts in their pricing due to missing games, or simply performed well below their former averages, meaning you can add them to your squad for much less money than otherwise, with the potential for them to go large. Marc Murphy or Dayne Beams, are examples of players who were affected by lesser injuries and who are going into the 2014 season twenty per cent cheaper than in 2013.



    You can also find value in players who copped vests in the previous year. Brandon Ellis, for instance, averages twenty per cent more when you exclude his sub games. His first four games, for which he was subbed out, brought down his average so his pricing doesn't accurately represent his potential to score in your team. Morabito, Bock and Rohan are all coming into the season significantly under-priced, due to a few years of misfortune, making them the definition of high-risk/high-reward.



    Then come the rookies. You'll need gun rookies who you expect to be on the field in the first few weeks and rookies for your bench. Jack Martin, James Aish and Dayle Garlett are a few young stars who will be in everyone's team, and for good reason. We'll get a better idea of who's a must-have to fill the bench through the pre-season, learning all that we can about those important rookies who will make us significant dollars over the early part of the season. Just remember, you want a team full of warm, playing bodies. Don't be sucked into the utter cheapies who won't get a game. (With the potential exception of your fourth ruck, but that's a different article.)



    Finally comes the fun bit - figuring out just how many guns you can squeeze in with the remaining funds. You will need at least one super-gun like Gaz or Swan to throw the captain's vest to, but outside of that, I like to grab fellows whom I enjoy watching, like Pendles or Watson or Franklin. There are, however, a couple of factors you need to take into account, the most important being durability. Ideally, these guys will be in your squad for the entire year and you don't want them to be wasting away on the sidelines.



    The next factor to consider is the bye rounds. A team full of the up and coming Tigers might seem like a good idea, but come round eight you'll find yourself struggling to field a full team. Even building a team with too many Richmond, Geelong, Collingwood, North, Adelaide and Gold Coast players will cause issues, considering those teams share the same bye round. So make sure your team is well spread across the byes. Rookies don't matter as much on this front as you'll find yourself upgrading them over this period.



    The general rule thumb that I follow in structuring a team, is to have 3-4 value mid pricers, 3-6 rookies on the field, a couple of underpriced premiums then I'd burn the remaining dollars on premiums. The quality of those premiums depends on how cheap the mid-pricers are, or how many rookies I trust to start. So if I decided to build my team with Suckling, Sandiland, Daisy and Mitch Clark, maybe throw in Beams and Murphy, I would be able to enter the season with a good number of premiums, trusting these guys to score well, but also trusting that I am fielding only the best rookies available.



    One thing to remember at this stage of the year though, everything is fluid. Right now you might like the look of a Mid-Pricer structure, but as more rookies put their hand up in the pre-season, find yourself drifting into more of a Guns and Rookies approach as you remove few mid pricers to replace them with a Gun and a Rookie. What is important now though, is to keep track of a pool of players, so that your final squad winds up as an optimum selection of these groups.
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by walesy, Feb 5, 2014.

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