Hi All,

Just a quick note from me to let you know the weekly brownlow posts are not far away.  This years machine will be smarter and more accurate than ever before, its just taking a           long               time                     to                     build...

From what has been gathered so far, there are some very interesting trends appearing that I didnt initially expect.  Turn over to have a sneak peak into whats coming...<!--more-->

&nbsp;

The first two charts below show the correlation between a combined SC &amp; DT score in both winning and losing teams.  No surprises here, at 250 SC/DT, the average is approximately 1 vote in a win, whilst only 0.3 votes in a loss:

&nbsp;

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-win1.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5764" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-win1.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-loss1.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5765" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC+DT-loss1.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

Next up, we look at raw possessions.  In a win, 30 possessions averages out at 1 vote, whereas you need to hit 35 to average a full vote in a loss:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-win.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5766" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-win.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-loss.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5767" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Poss-loss.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

But heres where it gets interesting.  Goals in a losing side mean little in the umpires eyes.  From the data collected so far (across > 3000 individual games) - 4 goals in a losing side and you wont be noticed.  You really have to kick six to be noticed consistently in a loss.  And whilst 4 goals in a win gets you a potential look in with the umps, 5 goals is almost guaranteed to poll:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Goals-win.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5768" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Goals-win.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Goals-loss2.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5771" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Goals-loss2.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

And lastly, well look at how different players get noticed differently.  Both Chris Judd and Marc Murphy have been in the polling zone ( > 197 SC + DT, where 80% of votes are captured) over 40 times each in the last 3 years.  Yet Judd only requires a 250 SC+DT to average 1.5 votes, Murphy needs to hit 280+:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chris-Judd.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5772" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Chris-Judd.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Marc-Murphy.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5773" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Marc-Murphy.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

All of the above (and more) will be taken into account when predicting this years votes, and in the next couple of weeks, the weekly post will be back.

And now that we have 27 completed games this year, TS Best Bets will be back this week with some interesting findings too...see you soon!