The Magnificent Seven - The Players to break into 100PPG in AFL Supercoach for the first time

Discussion in 'Blog' started by willbo, Mar 17, 2011.

By willbo on Mar 17, 2011 at 11:00 AM
  1. willbo

    willbo New Member

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    <a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/magnificent_seven.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-2650" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/magnificent_seven-300x225.jpg" alt="The Magnificent Seven" width="300" height="225" />[/url]Winning and losing Supercoach is a matter of getting the best players on the ground more often.   It sounds obvious but its the truth.

    The hard thing, and what makes the game interesting, is that you dont have unlimited money, or unlimited trades to get your best team together.

    So therefore, you are left to use strategies to get your team maximised.  Some use Guns and Rookies (GNR), some use a midpriced combination, and many use a combination of these to fit in our special favourites.   Every team, no matter if its the reigning champion down to the novice must take risks in order to get the best team.   One of the places you could decide to take risks, particularly with a midpriced team, is to try to pick the underpriced players who will make a jump forward this year.   The examples from 2010 of these players were Barlow, A Swallow, Johncock, Simpson and Jack.

    Anyone can pick the best premiums from year to year.  Generally the best players in the competition dont change much.   A few come in, a few come out, and the main block of star players remain the same.   In previous articles, Ive tried to outline some basic points about premiums (<a href="http://tooserious.net/premiums-the-initial-lowdown#more-2490" target="_blank">http://tooserious.net/premiums-the-initial-lowdown#more-2490[/url]) and who is going to be departing the 100 PPG group and who will be returning (<a href="http://tooserious.net/afl-supercoach-2011-premiums-100-ppg-out-and-premiums-returning#more-2548" target="_blank">http://tooserious.net/afl-supercoach-2011-premiums-100-ppg-out-and-premiums-returning#more-2548[/url]).   No one who is serious as a Supercoach player would have grave arguments against the points raised.

    But this article is to try to find a group of players who will come into the premium list for the first time.   Its trying to find the next generational shift in football.   And its over the break... :D

    <!--more-->As the picture and heading indicates, Im selecting a Magnificent Seven to take your team to glory this year, if you are gutsy enough to go with these players in your team.   You can probably afford one, maybe more in your team depending on your risk profile, and trust them to go into battle for you.  Lets have a look at them.

    Greg Broughton - This young player has shown remarkable ability in just two years of league football.   Sitting on the cusp of 100 PPG in previous years, this is the difficult year to pick, because he will be targeted by the opposition for heavy tags.  Being a defender, the ball will be under heavy forward pressure with Collingwood-clones coming left-right-and-centre.   But, for all that, the players in defence who are clean and win their own ball will probably get more of it.  Broughton will get this, and he may also get an occasional midfield run to shake the tags.   And for that reason, hes my first member of the Magnificent Seven.

    Travis Boak - A midfielder of great ability, Boak has shown gradual improvement each season, after being a top 5 draft pick in 2006.   Coming from great footballing stock in Geelong, and tempted to return by the dominating Cats side of the recent era, Boak has carved himself a nice niche in the Port midfield, alongside the blue collar workers of Cassisi, Rodan and Kane Cornes.  Boak has not the silk of a Pendlebury, but he is a very determined young man who if he improves efficiency by 5-10%, particularly in his kicking, will ease comfortably into the premium ranks.   Last season he earned 43% contested ball, and had 50% kicking efficiency.   Im expecting Port to free him up a little more this season, to give him a bit lower contested ball percentage, a higher kicking efficiency, and to also utilise him in the same way the Dogs do Daniel Cross, handballer par excellence.  Get the hard ball, farm it out, and get a few strong kicks long to a target.   Thats what I see from Boak this season, and given hes probably Ports most important player this season, he needs to do so for the club to prosper.

    Cyril Rioli - Mr Delicious.   We have heard those words from Bruce McAvaney, and though we mightnt go to the same extent in our hyperbole, its true to say that this player still has the upward curve on his play from all pundits, even though his greatest passage of play remains the moment where Hawthorn clinched vital momentum in the 2008 Grand Final.  You dont get points from looking good, you get points from being good, and Cyril doesnt just have the flashy plays, he has the grunt to back it up (40% contested ball over his career, 4-5 tackles per game).  Rioli has gone 75-79-95 in the past three seasons which shows the trend is up.  And given he started last season with debilitating injuries he couldnt even train around, Im pretty certain with this years better preseason, he will up at least 5 points, if not 15-20.   My view is given he averaged 101 PPG from Round 8 onwards, is that Delicious is already effectively a premium, and should be in your team.

    Dale Thomas - Daisy the Tank Engine has won a lot of criticism for his play over his career.   Playing for the Magpies like a millionaire early in his career did not help, but the metamorphosis that his game underwent through 2009, when played as a high and defensive half forward, though widely criticised at the time, has been the making of this No2 draft pick.   Last season Thomas averaged 94 PPG off the wing.  Im not certain I can work out where he can improve given he averaged 24 disposals at 73% efficiency, but Im thinking that from what Ive seen in preseason, Thomas has finally worked out how to use his bursting pace to the teams advantage.   In other words, more damaging possessions.   With help from the already solid Magpie midfield, who cant afford to "tag them all", Thomas will continue to find space on the wing, where he is effectively a new Chris Mainwaring in style.  This should give him the 6 points he is seeking.

    The first four premiums have come from >90 PPG last year, which means not a huge step up.   More refinement and probably not so much risk in their selection.   From here, we look to find two who were 80-90 PPG and one <80.   Im also going to "do a Mike Sheahan" and put in a list of players who averaged <80 that I believe are worth a second look as well, even if they dont make it to premium.   So now, for the next 3:

    Jack Grimes - This young player has been "coming" for longer than Carlton.   He has always shown great Supercoach ability, and this season, were expecting a full year of fitness, and a player ready to show his wares to the football world.   A versatile player who can move into the midfield, but is also comfortable as a sweeper across half back, he will find more responsibility (and importantly opportunities) with no Bruce and no McDonald in the Melbourne unit.   He uses the ball well, and given a few more tackles, and a decent run of fitness, he will surge into the premium ranks.  Indeed, he should already be the Melbourne captain in my opinion, as the perfect specimen for Melbournes next golden era.   At 21 years of age, its time for Jack Grimes to deliver, and push the Demons into September again.

    Patrick Ryder - Maybe its St Patricks day that is making me slide into this selection, and its quite a risky one, but I have seen some good signs from Ryder since the start of the season.  Given support from Hille and Bellchambers, Ryder can be the player he has always threatened to become - a floating half forward, wingman, back man, depending on what the situation demands.   For most players, a lack of role clarification such as this would be frustrating, but for one of the few aboriginal ruckmen, I can see this as being liberating for Ryder.  What he needs is to kick more goals, keep the tackles coming, and become more of a go-to player around the ground for a short pass or two.   The trend line is still upward for Ryder despite having had to bear the load of the Bomber ruck division in 2010, and defence in 2008 (27-72-63-85-86).   Again maturity for some players takes a while, particularly for the big men.   This season, its time for Ryder to join Sandilands and Cox, in competition for the All-Australian team.

    Liam Anthony - I have pressed myself to find one player from the lower price range and Liam Anthony fits the bill, partly because he also helps himself to a healthy injury discount (so technically isnt a sub 80 average).   Anthony is an absolute machine in getting the ball, and as such would be a perfect addition to a Dream Team squad.   In terms of Supercoach, he has struggled somewhat, but a player who can churn out averages over 85 in his first 17 games shows enough ability for me to consider to be a realistic premium chance.   With Harvey and Swallow taking the majority of opposition attention, and given his love for a goal and a possession, Anthony strikes me as a good player to consider to make the grade in 2011.

    Theres my Magnificent Seven.   Happy to experience bouquets and brickbats through the comments section.

    ---

    As a subscript, the players who I considered in the "priced <80 PPG" and were worth a look:
    Trent Cotchin, Daniel Rich, Bernie Vince, Shaun Higgins, Sharrod Wellingham, Nathan Foley, Rory Sloane, Leon Davis, Justin Sherman and Chris Yarran

    My Final List of Premiums for 2011:
    By Position (dual position players were put away from MID):

    DEF: Goddard, Gibbs, Johncock, Deledio, Broughton, Grimes
    MID: Ablett, Swan, Judd, Selwood, Hodge, Barlow, Montagna, Cross, Dal Santo, Murphy, Pendlebury, Priddis, Watson, Boyd, Swallow, Bartel, Jack, Mitchell, Cooney, Thompson, Cassisi, Thomas, Boak, Anthony
    FWD: Chapman, Franklin, Riewoldt, Pavlich, Goodes, J Brown, Rioli
    RUC:  Sandilands, Cox, Ryder

    By Club:
    Adel: Johncock, Thompson
    Bris: J Brown
    Carl: Gibbs, Judd, Murphy
    Coll: Thomas, Swan, Pendlebury
    Ess: Ryder, Watson
    Freo: Broughton, Pavlich, Barlow, Sandilands
    GC: Ablett
    Geel: Chapman, Selwood, Bartel
    Haw: Franklin, Rioli, Hodge, Mitchell
    Melb: Grimes
    NM: Swallow, Anthony
    Port: Cassisi, Boak
    Rich:  Deledio
    StK: Goddard, Riewoldt, Montagna, Dal Santo
    Syd: Goodes, Jack
    WB: Cross, Boyd, Cooney
    WCE: Priddis, Cox
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by willbo, Mar 17, 2011.

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