Gents, Given the ridiculously close comp this year with only 2 wins separating only 2nd to 15th I thought I'd have a look at where we all stand in relation to making the 8. So in a stupidly simple system (cos I'm stupidly simple) I've come up with the table below outlining the ease of the draw from here on in. Each team has been given a point for their ladder ranking after round 14 (e.g. the Monarchs 1, Buffalos 18) and then the points of your six remaining opponents totalled. So in descending order of ease: Groote 73 Xmas Island 69 Cow Bay 67 Hughenden 63 Eden 61 Southern Cross 61 King Island 60 Bangchang 60 Staghorn Flat 59 Ararat 57 Pakenham 55 Gisborne 53 Nuytsland 53 Serengeti 52 Coolgardie 51 Blanchetown 47 Pearcedale 43 Korumburra 42 A couple of my thoughts given the above: The Monarchs are Minor Premiers (not particularly controversial), with the Cudas to finish runners-up. Korumburra and Pearcedale will deserve their spots in the finals if they can hold on, as both play 3 of the top 4 in the run home.
So what you're trying to say is: never mind the fact that my team is decimated by injuries, The Prospectors still have no hope this year! (higher score = easier run home, right?) That was to be expected. I think I've already officially announced it, but I'm tanking from here on out ;-)
So I am sitting in 2nd, have the 3rd hardest run out of everyone? My team will either be battle hardened and ready to rumble, or going out in a blaze of glory!
JPK wrote: So what you're trying to say is: never mind the fact that my team is decimated by injuries, The Prospectors still have no hope this year! (higher score = easier run home, right?) That was to be expected. I think I've already officially announced it, but I'm tanking from here on out ;-) I'm with you mate, injuries and some poor form see me destined to miss the finals for a second season. Looks like there'll be no WA teams in the ORFFU finals this year, at least we've got West Coast to look forward to! The only saving grace will be a quality kid in our draft.
Round 15 is looking like a ripper. At the top end is 2 vs 3 and 4 vs 5. At the other end Staghorn vs Banchang is probably season over for 1. Xmas vs Gisborne is must win for the smugglers with a loss putting them 2 games and % out of the 8. And in between is 9 vs 10 and 11 vs 12. A lot of ladder-shaping matches.
4 Rounds left and the picture isn't much clearer. Although I am calling 5 of the top 8 safe and sound. King Island will be the minor premiers Ararat, Pakenham, Blanchetown and Groote Eylandt should comfortably make the top 5. I hear you say what about Pearcedale? If your a betting man they'd only start favourite in 1 of the final 4 games giving 10 wins. 10 wins plus percentage should secure a finals berth however there are numerous teams fighting for the final three spots. I'm also making the following bold prediction - Korumburra will miss the eight (after they lose to the Bulls this week), as too will Gisborne & the Coolgardie Tankers. This leaves Eden, Pearcedale, Souther Cross, some bias Staghorn Flat fighting for the last three spotswith Hughenden &Xmas Islandneeding to bank 4 wins to be with a chance. All to play in the final month
I'm going to need to beat 2 out of Eden, Pearcedale & Korumburra to be any chance for 8th spot. I'll also need to pants The Coolgardie Tankers (EFA) in Nugget Cup 2, but that is starting to look a little more promising now that they're battered & bruised! edit: Nice to be included in finals talk this season!
JPK wrote: Maybe I should just change my team name and avatar... Maybe go Cooltank as an homage to those navy poos Carltank!
3 Games to go... 13 doesn't go into 8! This week Hughenden's hopes all but evaporated as Nutsyland finally clicked and broke through for a well deserved win. Could they take the mantle of finals killers again this week as they face Xmas who did what they needed to this week in accounting for Banchang. The top 4 teams are safe and should be looking forward to some finals action. The four teams even with the card at 7/7 must now win three games you'd expect to challenge for the 8. I think Xmas Island are the best placed to do so given the run home. If those four teams on 8/6 win the final three your as good as home, win 2 your right in the mix - I have a feeling that someone or two will miss out on finals on overall points. I called Blanchetown safe last week, however the loss to the Tankers all of sudden has them facing three 8 point games on the way home - however their superior points for will work in their favour. Pearcedale need to jag a win and it best chance will come in the next 2 games as they play Blanchetown & Southern Cross. You'd hate to have to defeat the reigning premiers in the final round to get up. This week they are all key games, with seasons on the line all over the place. Perhaps the picture will be clearer next week...
Feel sorry for the Prairie Dogs knocking them out of the finals race. If there is any impact I can make this season and come home with a wet sail and also send smugglers packing then let it be. Vikings have not shut up shop yet, even if we win all remaining games still wont move us up the ladder.
bryzza wrote: Feel sorry for the Prairie Dogs knocking them out of the finals race. If there is any impact I can make this season and come home with a wet sail and also send smugglers packing then let it be. Vikings have not shut up shop yet, even if we win all remaining games still wont move us up the ladder. Definitely a danger game for the Smugglers. It's a sign as to how well Bryzza's drafted and traded that a fixture that was a lay-down [span data-dobid='hdw]misère at the start of the season is now a tricky assignment. Especially as the Smugglers generally do well when Richmond does well, so this Friday could be ugly...
its a bloody quality day when someone seamlessly introduces a 500 reference into a comment. Hats off to you Damo
bryzza wrote: Feel sorry for the Prairie Dogs knocking them out of the finals race. If there is any impact I can make this season and come home with a wet sail and also send smugglers packing then let it be. Vikings have not shut up shop yet, even if we win all remaining games still wont move us up the ladder. We are not out of contention yet, just going to be a tough run home.The Prairie Dogs just need to knock offthe Parasites this week and see how other results fall. Overall the Prairie Dogs are scoring well but getting beaten. The Prairie Dogs havethe 6th Highest Point aggregate for the season to date and had the 2nd Highest amount of Points scored Against them. Goodscores each week hasn'tresulted in wins with the opposition often playing above par when they come up against the Prairie Dogs. Obviously the Prairie Dogs brings the best out of the opposition.
What a cracker of a round, with 2 high scoring classics. The Barcrawlers & especially the Vikings can be justifiably disappointed with the SC 3300 magic formula perhaps being the difference. Put it this way if this was an election we are past preferences and going to a full recount. Leigh Mathews 2001/ Predator 1980s have succinctly put it in the past ‘if it bleeds we can kill it', 7 other finals bounds teams are thinking the same after the Monarchs lost for only the second time this season. There is now only 4 points between 5th and 12th and with 2 weeks left any slip up could be costly. Finals now seem a bridge too far for Gisborne after a promising first half of the year. At the lower end of the table, we won't call it tanking however only 1512 points were scored as Serengeti registered win number 2 for the year. Pick number one is going Cow Bay's way! This week in the penultimate H&A round. 7 games will have an impact on the finals outcome. Its 5th v 8th as Blanchetown take on a revitalized Korumburra. This one is too tight to call 1.90 each for the win. Blanchetown have averaged 1261 since the break Korumburra 1257. Line ball Coolgardie's season goes on the line against the reigning premier. Ararat comfortably for mine. Eden has two very winnable games to end with, this week they'll take the points against Serengeti. Finals beckon. Christmas Island should get the points over Hughenden however this is a danger game for the Smugglers who will be on guard following the match with Nutsyland. Groote Eylandt face a tricky task against a fired up Nutsyland. Cudas for mine to all but secure a top 4 spot with too much on the line at this point of the season to drop this one. Match of the round sees 3rd placed Pakenham host 6th placed Bulls. The Bulls have won 7 of 8, whilst Pakenham are on a 5 match winning streak. This is line ball Bulls averaging 1310 since the break, Pakenham 1293. The home side start slight favorites in this one. Pearcedale v Sandgropers shapes as another classic, all eyes will be on the Gropers at the selection table. Pearcedale have dropped two on the trot and face the reigning premier in the last round, a must win for them and they'll go in at this stage as slight favorites. The picture is as murky as ever, I'll call the top 4 safe. Still anyone's guess after that with some mouthwatering match ups to follow in the last round.