As part of a series of articles from TooSerious writers to be featured on the Herald Sun website over the pre-season, last week I had a look at the value of POD players in SuperCoach. The story changed names a few times along the way, and picked up some extra bits in editing such as an extended introduction and calling Mike Pyke a banana, but rest assured this is the original piece. I didn't have access to the stats on how many teams players are currently in, so that isn't included here, and the list of players at the bottom of the article only includes brief notes as to why they have potential upside this year.



Either way enjoy, and as always feel free to discuss in the comments.





The Value of POD's





In SuperCoach player selection always comes down to one basic equation, asking price vs scoring potential.



As simple as that may seem, the more you try to analyse it the more complex it becomes. With an almost infinite amount of variables, and the majority of them entirely subjective, scoring potential is something that simply cannot be measured.



Picking a good POD (Point Of Difference) in SuperCoach is therefore very difficult, but as we'll see it can also be very rewarding.



Other recent articles have already covered the tactics and strategies of team structures, so here we'll look at how valuable some of the 2013 POD's were to their coaches.



By definition a POD is a player that is not in the majority of teams, so the inherent risk in selecting them is that if they aren't effective you not only lose points to a lot of people, you also have to burn some trades to fix the problem. Vice versa, when they are effective you can find yourself rising through the ranks or dominating your leagues pretty quickly.



For a POD player to be effective, they need to fit one of several criteria; they need to score more than the equivalent choice, they need to score similarly to their equivalent but cost considerably less, or score similarly to their equivalent and play more games. The balance of POD numbers in your team will generally depend on how risky you want to be, but a good starting point for most would be around 1 per line.



On face value Gary Ablett is the highest ranked player for 2013 to Scott Pendlebury second, with averages of 129 and 127 respectively for the year. So over 21 games Gaz scored an average of 2 points more than Pendles, or 42 points for the season. But Pendles played one more game then Gaz did, and with an average of 127 that means that theoretically if you picked Pendles over Gaz to start with you would have been around 85 points and $70,000 better off (not including replacements score). Being the highest 2 scoring players for the year you would of course be better off having both of them and neither are POD's, but they work as an effective example of some of the variables that need to be considered and how POD's can work.



2013 saw many valuable POD's emerge, and give big rewards to the astute coaches that picked them early on. Ryan Griffen started the season costing $567,400 and in under 3,000 teams, after missing 2 early games he finished the year as the 5th highest averaging player (116) to play 20+ games. Those that picked him later had to pay up to $670,500. Andrew Walker cost $423,400 in round 1, selected in around 6,000 squads, before becoming the 3rd highest averaging forward (106) with 20+ games and peaking at a price of $553,700. Throw in Will Minson who started the year costing $508,800 and in less than 2,000 sides, to finish the year as the equal highest averaging ruckman (114) with Todd Goldstein and you get a good idea of the benefits to picking the right POD's.



How POD's are used will depend on your team structure and focus, whether it be leagues or overall glory, but there are always examples of a great POD choice available at any stage of the season. Joel Selwood started 2013 in around 28,000 teams, costing a hefty $629,500. After averaging 104 from rounds 1-10 the coaches that held off on selecting him to start with could bring him in after round 10 for $491,300, not only over $100,000 cheaper but his average from round 11 onwards jumped to 130 to have him end the season as the 3rd highest averaging player (118).



Unfortunately it's not quite as easy as that, with all the variables that can't be measured like injuries or suspensions, sudden form drops and mysterious coaching practices, there are many reasons why POD players aren't in many teams. Players like Ben Howlett who scored 164 and then 127 in the opening 2 rounds in 2013, and made his way into 10,000 teams, only to average 66 from round 3 onwards are good examples of how easily things can go wrong. For every successful POD story there are 50 unsuccessful ones, with players like Higgins, Sylvia and Grimes looking ready to break out any day now, seemingly for the last 5 years.



An effective POD can win you your leagues, or give you a shot at the overall prize, but they can also just as easily destroy your season. No team can take the flag without having at least a couple in there, but every year there are thousands of coaches regretting their choices.



10 possible POD's to watch in 2014



[span style='color: #222222;]Stewart Crameri (WBD) FWD $390,400 - avg 72 - New team with contested ball focus, need forward target, possible midfield time

[span style='color: #222222;]Charlie Dixon (GCS) R/F $487,900 - avg 90 - Injury affected 2013, still averaged 99.7 when not subbed, goals and rucks

[span style='color: #222222;]Rory Sloane (ADE) MID $577,100 - avg 107 - Has been 1 year behind Dangerfield in development, 24th contested possessions and high score 180 in 2013

[span style='color: #222222;]Ben Cunnington (NM) MID $516,700 - avg 96 - North focus on spread from stoppages, 23yo, consistently improving, 2013 high score 151

[span style='color: #222222;]Sam Jacobs (ADE) RUC $460,200 - avg 85 - 2012 avg 102, Crows down year 2013, approaching ruck prime

[span style='color: #222222;]Brett Deledio (RIC) MID $558,800 - avg 104 - Less tags (Cotchin), 2012 avg 115, avg 100+ 6 years

[span style='color: #222222;]Callan Ward (GWS) MID $525,000 - avg 97 - avg 106 in 2012, team improving, addition of Mumford

[span style='color: #222222;]Jake Carlisle (ESS) DEF $408,900 - avg 76 - =16th for marks, =24th for contested marks and 84.5% DE in 2013

[span style='color: #222222;]Mike Pyke (SYD) RUC $466,800 - avg 86 - 2nd contested marks, avg 22 HO 2013, now #1 ruck

[span style='color: #222222;]Trent McKenzie (GCS) DEF $477,700 avg 89 - =5th rebound 50's, 2.8:1 kick:handball and 77.5% DE in 2013