<p class='Standard]The pre-season is upon us. A time where coaches give their young charges plenty of games and your everyday puff piece can turn any rookie into the next Gary Ablett. But with so many different fresh faces thrown up each year and with the coaches experimenting with team structure, how exactly do we separate the real deals in these rookies from the fools gold?
<p class='Standard]Being a numbers kinda guy, I've always been a fan of watching trends from the past to garner a few clues on the future, so lets take a look at the obvious statistic to track- a players average over the NAB. Last year, we had 22 rookie or rookie priced players, who during the pre-season managed an average of 60 points per game. Not keeper material, of course, but for what you pay, it does the job and is likely to make you a bit of coin along the way.
<p class='Standard]Of those 22 players however, only 6 of them kept that average, while playing an acceptable amount of games over the early season, where others just didn't get the games. These absolute hits were, Brett Goodes, Jaeger O'Meara, Dean Terlich, Lachlan Whitfield, Oliver Wines and Matt Jones. All well known names if you played the game seriously last year and every one of them essential to any squad hoping to have given it a shake.
<p class='Standard]Obviously, scoring alone isn't the only indicator of success in the season proper or perhaps even the most important.
<p class='Standard]When we take a closer look at that list of hits, there are a few significant factors at play. Firstly, teams. Those guys came from teams who, to put it bluntly, weren't exactly Premiership contenders in the 2012 season. Secondly, they all played significant minutes across the pre-season, averaging around 260 minutes of game time. Whitfield was the exception to that, playing just 195 minutes. Finally, we can look at these guys and see, they are either mature aged, or were rated as a potential elite midfielder.
<p class='Standard]So, with criteria in hand, lets take a closer look at some of the hits and misses from the more popular rookies in the 2013 season
<p class='Standard]Hits
<p class='Standard]Sam Dwyer (COL), Mature, 295 minutes, NAB Average: 38
<p class='Standard]Started the season wearing the green vest, but went on to make some solid coin with tons in rounds 2 and 8 and a 99 in round 7. He averaged 76 over the first 8 weeks and put on $257k for your team. Definitely a win. Despite playing for a successful team, at 27 years old, was brought in with a role in mind and did himself (and all his SuperCoach coaches) proud.
<p class='Standard]Brett Goodes (WBD), Mature, 272minutes, NAB Average: 80
<p class='Standard]Averaged 91 over the season and was one of the best possible rookie choices from last year. Would have been a keeper if not for his injury in round 17 ruling him out for the rest of the season.
<p class='Standard]Campbell Heath (PTA), Mature, 334 minutes, NAB Average: 50
<p class='Standard]Played early and averaged 65 over the first 8 weeks, making you a tidy $142k before the bye rounds.
<p class='Standard]Matt Jones (MEL), Mature, 265 minutes, NAB Average: 64
<p class='Standard]An astute pick up from last year, Jones averaged 75 through the first 8 rounds, putting on $254k leading up to the byes.
<p class='Standard]Jaeger O'Meara (GCS), Rookie, 324 minutes, NAB Average: 73
<p class='Standard]The golden boy from last year and a benchmark from which this years rookies will be compared. Jaeger averaged 92 over the first 8 rounds, but most importantly, put on upwards of $309k leading into his bye- another $37k if you held onto him a little longer than that.
<p class='Standard]Lewis Stevenson (PTA), Mature, 339 minutes, NAB Average: 70
<p class='Standard]Coming in to fill a spot in Ports defence, Stevenson managed to put on $147k over the first 8 weeks, a solid bench option.
<p class='Standard]Dean Terlich (MEL), Mature, 263 minutes, NAB Average: 70
<p class='Standard]Terlich missed the first game of the year last year, meaning he was missed by a lot of coaches early- Still, he managed to finish the season with a fantastic average of 79, which included a fantastic string of games mid-season that he averaged 94 across. Really shaped up as keeper material.
<p class='Standard]Nick Vlastuin (RIC), Rookie, 231 minutes, NAB Average: 60
<p class='Standard]Vlastuin was the perfect downgrade last year, playing his first game in round 5- however, his numbers still have him as an hit on this board. An average of 90 leading up to the byes saw him put on $263k very quickly.
<p class='Standard]Lachlan Whitfield (GWS), Rookie, 195 minutes, NAB Average: 65
<p class='Standard]The #1 pick was always going to put on solid numbers and a 70 average over the first 8 rounds was just that. Cash-wise, because of the premium, he was surpassed by others, but over the journey still managed $141k with a good amount of points for your team.
<p class='Standard]Oliver Wines (PTA), Rookie, 257 minutes, NAB Average: 64
<p class='Standard]Wines was a machine early last year, putting on two tons early and $200k after round 6. His growth did peter out after that, but that was as much a symptom of his premium rookie price as anything.
<p class='Standard]Misses
<p class='Standard]Kane Mitchell (PTA), Mature, 272 minutes, NAB Average: 61
<p class='Standard]Kane ticked all the boxes last pre-season. Lesser team, high minutes, mature aged- but tragically, Hinkley saw fit to give him the Green Vest 6 times in his first 9 games, absolutely destroying any chance he had of making dollars. If only there was a formula to predict this happening.
<p class='Standard]Lachlan Plowman (GWS), Rookie, 183 minutes, NAB Average: 59
<p class='Standard]Plowman, as a highly ranked youngster with defender status found himself in a lot of teams. Sadly, this faith was misplaced as he was never an elite ball-winner as a junior and his NAB minutes didn't bode well.
<p class='Standard]Dane Rampe (SYD), Mature, 355 minutes, NAB Average: 52
<p class='Standard]Rampe did very well breaking into the Sydney line-up, though considering his mature status, and his pre-season minutes, it was unfortunate that he drew the red vest and a two week injury in his first game. Still, didn't put on mid-field type number upon his return for a few weeks and by the time he hit his strides, averaging 78 over the middle of the season, was probably a little too late for most.
<p class='Standard]Jimmy Toumpas (MEL), Rookie, 161 minutes, NAB Average: 72
<p class='Standard]Looking at the NAB average alone, you'd think at pick #4, Toupmas would be an easy lock, however that doesn't tell the full story. Toumpas scored fantastically in the shorter lightning rounds, but simply not being given the minutes in the full length games. This lack of endurance saw Toumpas become the nightmare of SuperCoach teams- a rookie who actually lost you dollars.
<p class='Standard]Jack Viney (MEL), Rookie, 64 minutes, NAB Average: 40
<p class='Standard]Poor Jack Viney. A great talent who drew a lot of coaches on for a ride, particularly after scoring a 117 in the first round. Still, just like in the pre-season, Viney went on to have an injury riddled season that saw him miss 10 of the first 16 games.
<p class='Standard]So what does that tell us? When looking at the rookies, it's critical to keep a calm head and ensure that they check these boxes: they are mature aged or pegged as an elite midfielder and they're playing for a less successful team thus will get more time on the field in the season proper or they're filling a definite role in a team. Most importantly though, when you're getting sucked into the hype mid pre-season about how this little gun or that future superstar will be running rampant in the 2014 and you'd be mad not to have him on your team, avoid a repeat of last years experience with Michael he-has-to-do-better-next-week Evans and have a close look at how much confidence their actual coaches have in them. Coaches give minutes across the pre-season to new players that they believe will be given a significant role in the upcoming season. It's not exactly rocket science, but sorting last years rookies by their minutes played in the NAB really does provide a bit of a who's who in the best rookies of 2013. As it turns out, under 200 minutes is not enough but 260-ish seems just about right.