What's everyone's thoughts? Is he worth the initial outlay? Or better suited as an upgrade target? Realistically you wouldn't think he'd go up much (if at all) in value. As someone who got burnt by Goddard's high initial price last year I don't want to get burned again (fool me once situation). (Same goes for Ablett and Swan who arent that far behind)
I've been on Swan all year ahead of Pendles with the plan to bring him in later. But I've got to say, Swan's NAB performances haven't inspired me and I'm really thinking that Pendles may be worth the extra $30k.
gogonz i thought the exact opposite - that swan looked in excellent touch for some early season 160s. Then again if we talk too much about it I will start changing my mind again. Regardless, noone cld fault pendle's start to the year...
I'm not sure about that. For Pendlebury to hold most of 700k, let's say 600k is an 'acceptable loss', then I think he'd need to average his current 130 over the first 10 games to hit that. If he hits 140 he's going to be just about 700. If he however averages 120, which is still a mighty big effort - only Pendlebury, Swan, Dal Santo, Ablett, Sandilands and Boyd could do it last year in a 10 game stretch (either R1-10 or 11-24) - then he loses about 150k. Brings him back to 550 which is his level. So is, I believe, his average that I foresee of about 120-125, representing a price in the 550-600 range. The other thing is, Pendlebury is a dependable captain but not a game breaker like Ablett or Cox, who go huge. Pendlebury is the quiet accumulator, which you need for SC, but not at 700k. It's really difficult to make the call, but on the maths, I think Impromptu has it correct not including Pendles in his starting team. A lot harder call to make when you support the Pies and see SP_10 going from strength to strength though.....
Lock him in! It's Pendlebury! What if he does come out with a bang, which shouldn't surprise anyone and his price doesn't significantly drop? Not only will you miss out on those early points, but you're gonna really stuggle to get the cash together to afford him.
Add Mundy, Cox and Rockliff to the 120+ list Still it is a very elite club, which is to be expected when the 3300 factor comes into play. Reason for my caution on Pendles...quite simply the overall salary of the competition does not change. When a whole raft of debutants take the stage for GWS, like with GC, it will mean that the effort to remain at a high salary is much more difficult, because all the rookies gain in value. It means next season, elite players will probably cost less to pick and will hold their value better, so a full GNR is probably essential. This season, I'm less convinced of the value of pure GNR. It's something I've become wary of just by looking at last year's price movements from round 1 to 10. The top guys got hammered even when they averaged more than 100% from previous year. Price maintenance zone was about 110%. But of course that's common knowledge to a lot here at TS, the entropic factor hitting salaries. The question is are you prepared to take a hit when the guy you're getting hit on isn't the best captain and doesn't give you the occasional 350+ on the scoreboard? Ditto the same argument for Franklin but on a lesser scale.
Pies early games: Hawthorn - will struggle to get 120+ (3300) Richmond - should score 130-145 Carlton - will struggle to get 120+ (3300) Port - should score 130-145 Essendon - pot luck 120-150 Dogs - again pot luck 120-135 likely Lions away - 120-130 Geelong - struggle to get 120+ (3300) Adelaide - 110-125 Luckily he will only hold the Hawks game in for one, because copping both Hawks and Blues in the mix for 3 games would have pushed him quickly down to 600. Let's say he goes 110-135-110-140-135-125-120-95-110 Let's also say you have Ablett and use GAJ as capt most matches. Average of 120 (1080/9) Price goes down to 600k. Sure he's still hard to bring in for other teams, but gettable. And the 120 isn't enough to give you the points advantage you need.
Lucas, I like the points you are making and the stats make it easy reading. But don't those same points apply to the other players. Eg. I like Jobe but can't pick him over 4 other elite mids just yet. Like Pendles even if he holds or even slightly raises his average (something I think he's an ok chance to do this year) then his price will also drop. As he starts about $125K lower then he will be easier to pick up with the upgrade/downgrade trading process. If he goes bang then possibly he's still reachable. If Pendles goes bang then not only do you miss those points but you can't afford him now with a straight up/down swap - you'll probably need 2 downgrades to get the cash. The biggest risk with Pendles is spending all that cash and copping an injury (although he's proved durable so far). But that's a risk with every player you select.
I didn't have Pendles until about Monday when I happened to free up enough cash to bring him in for Masten (I know, not a great original idea). Once I had a spare $730K I just had to do it. It means I'm not worrying about it and can focus on other mids that to me could be a little more variable.
I don't think it's a matter of money. His price going down (like everyone else's) isn't what most people are worried about. It's NOT starting him in favour of someone else. Ok, I'll put it another way, name the players, that will outscore him?
Ablett, Swan, Dal Santo, Murphy, Judd are all guys a hell lot cheaper that potentially outscore Pendles, the first 3 proving it over 3-4 years they are elite.
I think points per dollar, quite a few. If we had no salary cap, Pendles would be in nearly everyone's team, but because there is a cap, that determines that you need to get value for money, and I'm not sure SP is in the top 5 midfielders for value. Not everyone's price will go down. Some will be able to hit that 110%. Some will only have to hit 107% because their starting base is lower. The hardest thing as always is working out which players will take the next step and which will fall back.
No doubt he's not there on points per $ but does anyone think he won't be in the top 4 or 5 TOTAL point scorers at the end of the year? My point is, get him now, and save a trade as well as accumulate solid points from Rd1.
If our teams we built on P/$ then we would all have 30 rookies. This argument is just the same as Impromptu's call to leave out Franklin, and his decision to leave out Goddard last year. At the end of the day, I doubt there will be much difference with either choice, unless something drastic happens to Pendlebury's scoring (like Goddard last year).
<blockquote>Quote from The_Swert on March 21, 2012, 13:56 If our teams we built on P/$ then we would all have 30 rookies. </blockquote> Strawman argument <blockquote> This argument is just the same as Impromptu's call to leave out Franklin, and his decision to leave out Goddard last year. </blockquote> Worked out well for him too, didn't it. I'm just seeing if there are alternatives to putting SP in the team. I think there are.
All premiums will lose value, it depends how much they lose their value which is determined solely by their scoring. Does anyone see Pendlebury not averaging at least 125 until the pies' round 12 bye? This is a player whose lowest score for all of last season was 94, that score being his only score out of 25 games below 100, early on the season in round 3, well before upgrade season. The argument could work for Goddard whose scoring ranged from the 160s and 170s to the 70s and 80s (plus the winner got extremely lucky, at the end of the day it was a crapshoot and he guessed correctly) and is more valid for Franklin, however Pendlebury's stdev has always been much lower therefore he is prone to much less peaking and troughing of his value curve.
I'm starting him. Who cares if his price falls. If you plan on keeping him for the entire year, the only problem will be if he gets injured, then it will be a waste of money.