as every year, the focus around getting your players right is massive. Given the extra complexities involved in SC2011, the question must be asked, is it worth starting with Swan and/or Ablett? Ablett - $631,900 Swan - $617,300 they're more expensive then any other midfield by at least 30-40k. Could you money be better spent? Will people be starting with Swan or Ablett or both? Here I see some of the cons of starting with either - Swan - given the interchange rules in 2011, will this impact his score? Ablett - new team, new environment, same scores? He won't initially have the same chemistry that he had in geelong, combined with the fact they have a round 1 bye. Are they perhaps better upgrade targets once both of them have seen out their two byes, or will you be starting with one or both in your teams?
At the moment..and it is very early, I have them both. They are 30-40 more because they score higher. Wasn't Ablett over 700 at the start of last year? or have I killed too many brain cells over the new year.
Everything adds up to Ablett being a great upgrade target as: - has two byes in the first 9 rounds - is yet to be seen how he will score in the new team After Jolly last year, I decided to go against picking up premiums that have switched clubs. Even more so in this instance with the club itself being brand new. I have also avoided starting with Bruce in the backline for this reason, however I reckon he will be in the top 7 defenders this year. I am personally going to start with Swan, however I don't think he is an absolute must have to start, with both of Collingwood's byes also being over with comparatively early. So for mine: Ablett - No Swan - Maybe leaning towards yes
My view is that GAJ will be a juicy upgrade target around round 10. There are just too many uncertainties with him this year and add to that GC have both their byes in the first half of the season, he will be behind the 8-ball. My plan is to upgrade Conca to Ablett at say Round 10 to maximise points around the byes. With Swan, i dont see the new interchange rules effecting his output dramatically. He will still run just as hard up and down the ground and he will still get rotated just as he has in the past. Collingwood will be the highest scoring team this year and if you dont have Swan from the start i suspect you will be playing catchup all season.
Went no Ablett last year and upgraded to him which worked ok. At almost his highest point I might add. Going with Swan to start with which I didn't do at all last year. I agree with Collingwood being a high scoring team in 2011 but as with last year it will be spread around the team during a lot of the games. A question i'm asking myself which some of you veterans of SC may know answer to is how does bye affecting SC player pricing. Does the zero mean a possible price drop when its in the three round average ? So going Swan and Targetting Ablett for upgrade.
Have started without Ablett two years in a row, both times around mid-year i have double or triple traded to bring him in. Last year trading him in at his most expensive when i was seriously considering Swan, was a huge mistake. Once again I think i will not pick either, I will just make the conscious effort not to get caught up with how well they are scoring and stick to a plan, i.e. Ablett after round 10.
Limo Bye will be classed as games not played so they will have no effect on the players average nor their prices. The only side effect of a bye is that a players price appreciation or deprecitaion will be delayed by a week, so that will need to be considered when planning trades.
@Liquid_Six Cheers. Got it. That might mean an extra week available on some of the necessary rookie in - deadwood out trades.
<blockquote>Quote from Holey on February 8, 2011, 12:36 So for mine: Ablett - No Swan - Maybe leaning towards yes</blockquote> Ditto
Ablett - No - New team, early byes, and a whole lot of unknowns Swan - No - Interchange rules may not affect his overall scoring, but i reckon it will take a few weeks for him to get used to it, he also has two early byes, and he also has started the season off slowly before exploding after about round 9 or 10 for the past few years.
The only danger is past performance does not always indicate future output. Collingwood has a relatively easier start to the year and a much tougher finish than in the past few seasons. If Swan had trouble scoring early it could have been because he was playing better opponents, then in that soft underbelly of playing teams like Melbourne, Sydney, Port and Richmond, he whacked out the scores. With the Pies having an easier run early, I could see Swan being the man to get, and Pendlebury being the one to get upgraded to after the 2nd bye.
And stats...remembering the golden rule that past performance does not indicate future output. Pies run at start of year, Swan last yr and Pendles last yr R1 - PORT - 127 / 125 R2 - NM - 127 / 70 R3 - CARL - 113 & 152 / 115 & 139 R4 - RICH - 190 / 84 R5 - ESS - 78 & 142 / 130 & 120 R6 - WB - 145 & 118 / 91 & 145 BYE R8 - GEEL - 106 & 131 / 96 & 110 R9 - ADEL - 100 / 104 R10 - WCE - 163 / 139 R11 - STK - 98 & 145 / 73 & 106 R12 - MELB - 93 & 173 / 122 & 123 BYE II In general Swan smashed them out bigger than Pendlebury, but the scores Pendlebury did put out make him a very good selection for his price I'd think. Can you carry them both in your team through R7? Not so sure. I'd be thinking take one the entire season and another from R14 onwards (almost your last mid upgrade)
It seems the sensible thing to wait until after GAZ has his byes to get him in but I'm worried that he might start off with a bang and I won't be able to afford him without stuffing up other plans. He is a very proud and determined player (witness last year's final v. Coll when we got smashed but he still killed it)and I reckon he'll bust a gut to prove to everyone what a champ he is, regardles of his changed circumstances. Also, I have a feeling we are not going to make as much money off our cows this year as I reckon a number them will be Subs (or be subbed off). So still weighing up whether to saddle up now with GAZ and just cop his two early byes or try to grab him later... either way, i reckon you must have him come the business end of the season.
Another issue with Ablett going to GC, is will he be more injury prone? Will his shoulders end up like Judd's, or he simply cannot take the constant beatings of having no protection, week in week out. There are simply too many unknowns, and as long as he averages the same, or less than last year, he will go down in price. Same with Swan.
I certainly think Pendles represents better starting value than Swan, and would choose him ahead of Swan if only interested on a league win. However for overall purposes, I feel the risks associated with not starting Swan far outweigh the benefits to be gained from not starting him. Similarly to Goddard - he might lose a bit of cash early, but if he's still pumping out more points than the other midfielders and you aren't making that points up with the extra cash elsewhere, you'll be behind the 8-ball. There's also the danger of him going BANG early as Lucas posted, which will see a non-Swan team potentially missing out on points early and then having to waste at least 1 trade on getting him in when most other teams will already have him (also the danger of him being a harder player to find the cash to bring him in, as opposed to a ~500k-~550k player)
Re. the figures Lucas posted earlier: Swan averaged 129.47 over those games Pendlebury averaged 111.29 over the same games Swan averaged ~18ppg higher (~$88,400) but is priced only $79,400(~16ppg) higher. Not sure how relevant it is, but just some more info to look at when trying to make the decision. I would like them both in my team after the Pies second bye, but will only consider one up until then (Swan for overall or Pendles for league)
Got 3 premiums in my midfield that will hopefully be the best 3 scorings mods this year so I don't have to upgrade them, swan Judd and selwood r10 based on how he is performing upgrade to an ablett and r14 upgrade to a pendles to maxamise scoring in midfield
<blockquote>Quote from Fez on February 8, 2011, 17:44 Got 3 premiums in my midfield that will hopefully be the best 3 scorings mods this year so I don't have to upgrade them, swan Judd and selwood r10 based on how he is performing upgrade to an ablett and r14 upgrade to a pendles to maxamise scoring in midfield </blockquote> Are you inadvertently trying to bait the other mods Fez?