Hi all.

Time for Best Buys this week has been a little short in terms of thought given some other articles I thought were worth writing and discussing.

But there are two factors to consider when trading this week.

First is - will a player Im bringing in improve my score?  And if youre fighting for overall honours, how much will it improve by?

Second is - what is the strength of the player I am downgrading to?   Will they become a future cash cow, or a reliable backup.

To make trades without improving your overall score at end of year is (in my view) self defeating.   To make trades too often without thinking of the downgrade target means that you can find yourself (particularly with byes abounding) only one injury away from a donut, or at least a score thats going to give you considerable pain in your league match that week.

This week I aim to go through some of the value picks you can get first, then look at the downgrade targets.  Hope you can join me over the break.

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Value Picks for the Round

Defence:
Decent upgrade options abound.  Thats why people are thinking of giving Duigan an upgrade this week.  Names that average around the 100 mark this year and are in that 450 range are: Adcock, Deledio, Enright, Scotland, Shaw, Newman, Fisher and Gibbs.

No way anyone would have all of these players, so probably worth finding a spot for them.   And if you dont have Goddard, hes worth getting now.  Playing poorly and still churning out scores of the 100 variety.   Of the list above, please remember the bye factor for Shaw, Deledio, Scotland, Gibbs and Newman.   They are either having one this week or in the next few weeks.  Dont forget completely the  guys mentioned who are having a bye soon.  After their bye they become just as good to have.   I think Shaw with his early second bye will be a handy player to have because he lets you settle your side down after Round 13.

Therefore my upgrade targets would be Adcock, Enright and Fisher.  Not in that order necessarily, and all have claims.   Im thinking if you already have Goddard, and have no Cats in your defence, then Enright is the go.

Midfield:
Normally this is an area where you find good gold early, and take it to the bank.

The best value here at the moment on form from this year are Scott Thompson and Jobe Watson.   Both were expected to improve with good opportunities in emerging teams.  Im not convinced they should be trade targets though.

Judd is one who should be on the radar of every player who doesnt have him.  After the big score last week, you really need to get in at 507 or watch him sail into the distance.   His bye is at an awkward time though, so I would suggest holding fire and then striking before Round 9.

Selwood then becomes the target of choice.  At 516k and a BE of 138, you can make a case for not getting him this week also, however he does play North at Skilled, and you might miss his big score and his current price might slip up bye a few dollars.   Id suggest hes still a very worthwhile target this week, despite the BE.

Two for the watch lists are Hodge and Montagna.  For whatever reason, be they average preseason, niggly injury or loss of assistance in the middle, both are struggling.   But both are champions who can fix these issues and get back to scoring powerfully.   They could quite easily find themselves under 450, they can score HUGE and would be PODs (meaning you could make up ground on the leaders quickly plus put yourself in with a roughie chance of winning the overall score for the week) so keep their details handy.

Daniel Cross is another one to watch who has started the year slowly.   If you see him starting to churn out the 110 consistent points of old get on.

Finally I would assume Ablett is on everyones watch list.  Despite the GCs average form, hes still knocked out 109 PPG.   At that average he will be about 520k when the bye occurs so whack him on the watch list.   He is the type of guy to set and forget in your side, which is important as the bye and injuries knock teams around later in the year.

Other players you could easily trade into and if not keep an eye on would be:
Mundy - A great start to the year, almost equivalent to Swans start.  That says how good hes been.   The improver of the year, but not completely convinced he can keep it up.  Id wait a few weeks, then get on.
Embley - A class act who is now playing like it.  A goal kicking running loose wingman should be SuperCoach gold, but hasnt been.   A definite POD option.
Bartel - Brownlow Medallist, need I say more.
Griffen - Started the year munching on Cross points.   Coming of age.
Mitchell - Could be cannibalising Hodges points as he shrugs off the loss of the captaincy.   Probably Hawthorns best player this year, which is an "up yours" to all who questioned him.
Dal Santo - Has started the year well.  Worth a look, as the attention post-Hayes has tended to go to Montagna/Goddard.
Martin - Not a realistic option to put in your side yet, but if he keeps going at the rate of improvement, all  I can say is WOW.   The first player you should pick next year.

Personally I dont have a huge option to upgrade in the mids this week, but Id consider Selwood if I didnt have him.   Or one of the list of players directly above.

Rucks:
Should really be a set and forget area, but Impromptu has shown us rucks is an area you might want/need to trade around.
There have been plenty of points on offer in this area, to the big 4 - Cox, Mumford, Sandilands and the surprise packet Brad Ottens (finally fit).

The top 3 would be my suggestions for any rucks to bring in.   The rest is fools gold that might attract for a short while.

Forwards:
Are people running after Chapman mad?   Thats a big question.   The answer is....NO.

Having shrugged off his start of year injury and lame preseason matches, Chapman has hit the ground full of energy and ability.   Make him part of your forward line as soon as possible - I reckon the next 2 weeks at around the 550 mark - its expensive but needs to be done.   And he probably replaces Matera in your team, which pretty much guarantees 60ppg.  Yum.

Other good upgrade options are:
Fyfe - Despite my doubts he keeps performing winning over more critics each week.
Pavlich and Franklin - Bye out of the way, no reason not to get them.

Outside the top 4 the standard drops considerably, and you could use one of a range of players to fill your positions from 5 to 7.

Harvey is probably the clear next best, but his team has shown signs of uncompetitiveness this year, which is sad for Boomer.

Rioli and Higgins are always injured or suspended and cause their coaches much stress.   Fully fit, they are certainly great top 7 options though.

Throw a blanket over much of the rest.   All inconsistent and struggling.

Nick Riewoldt could be one to get in a few weeks if you dont have him.  Under 400 what a steal if he gets out of this pitiful morose mood, and back into damaging forward.
Alan Didak is another people are watching to see if he can become a midfielder during the year.  If he does, after a somewhat interrupted preparation, he is certainly worth including.  The fact he will be at 350k or less is a lovely bonus.

Finally I say with the lack of true forward options this year, monitor the form of J Brown when he comes back.   Could be a point of difference who leads the Lions home to a few wins.   The Brisbane form has been very strong without him, even though they are at the bottom of the ladder.   If JB had been there, I think theyd be in the 8, with 3 extra victories.

My forward targets would be Chapman, Franklin or Pavlich.   And Id put Fyfe on my watchlist alongside Brown and Didak.

Downgrade options:

Defence - You could go Thompson a week late.  Its still not the worst move, given he could easily average 80 from here in the Crow defence.   For mine, the perfect D8 long term.  You could wait another week for Hibberd or Cripps.  Or a few more for Puopolo or even Jacobs.   For mine, there are good downgrade options in future weeks, so not the time to do a downgrade of the defenders this week.   With players like Heppell, Stanley and Lower cooking nicely it looks like the downgrades will be ready at perfect times for this line.

Midfield - You really need to downgrade this week if you want Iles or Wright.  I think both are good prospects, but Iles has the job security.   Wallis is another good option who will be on the bubble this week, but with his first week sub and second week Collingwood, he has had a nicely depressed start, and might be gettable at 140 next week.   Outside of these guys, there is Hibberd next week on the horizon to put in an MPP link.   Maybe Mzungu in future as well given he is training.   Might be worth a lash.

Rucks - Id steer clear, but McCauley is the best semi low price option.

Forwards - Looking better with May and Harper getting a good run last week.  Mzungu is on the horizon.   Winmar is knocking on the selection door as is Smith.   Id watch for a week or two if possible, then move.

OK, my advice is downgrade a mid and upgrade a defender or maybe a forward this week, but do your own research and make your own trades to suit your position.

Happy trading!