Welcome to another edition of Best Buys.

There arent too many people looking to throw trades around as this is the first of five "league byes", and the first of three in succession.   So the question is, do you bother trading in one or any of these rounds?

If youre going for leagues, one could quite easily say "no trades" for each of these games, but that stands against logic, which dictates that the sooner you get a quality side out on the park, the sooner you can lock away wins in the league and ensure youre not scrambling for the top 8.  To my mind, this means that you can wait and sit out the Round 16 and 19 byes without having to make structural changes to your team.

We all know were in competitive leagues here, where to be off the pace early in the year can be terminal, as you find yourself trading just to keep pace.

So my general advice is avoid trading unless its either to bring in a cash cow, or to do the downgrade-upgrade switch.  Or of course the old Long Term Injury (LTI) factor.

One thing I do stress to do is dont run from your pre-selected premiums at the start of the year.  Even sideways trading these guys can come unstuck.   The thing is we still arent certain of which teams will be the best and which teams will struggle this year.   St Kilda is one team that has had an awful run, but they can quite easily come back to the forefront.  For people to say that we could have already settled the final 8 by now is madness.

Thats why checking out the ticker is always a great move, as you can plan your trades around a good patch of games.  But anyway, the advice on the rest of this weeks Best Buys, well thats over the break.

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Who do I need to think about getting in my side this week?

If you need a ruck cow, Zac Smith is one to consider.   He has a hugely negative (-100) break even this week, and should provide solid backup for Sandilands and Cox in their league byes in Round 5 and 6.   On the bubble, hes one from the Gold Coast that cannot be discounted.  It has been a masterstroke not to have him wasting his time playing in the NAB Cup.

In the midfield, there are two fronts.  One is another Gold Coast player who is going up - Daniel Harris.  Hes probably not going to dominate each week, but should be good for regular 70s and that, for his 120k price, means that if you discounted having him in your team early, you really need to jump on now.

The second front is whether to give a go to Liberatore, Savage and Curnow, all of whom are now into the 200k zone.   Its a tough one, because last week was really the time to jump on these guys and ride their value.   Personally with the bye taking out momentum for Liberatore (4) and Savage (6), I think they are boats you can miss.   But I would suggest Curnow if you get on now is still a goer.   He was mighty impressive against Collingwood, and has some great scores in his three round rotation.   Without a bye before Round 8 will see him mature to a perfect cow.

The question is really, is it worth trading a midpricer out for Curnow this week?   If you have someone like a Liam Anthony, it might well be.   I have Callan Ward, and with the bye factor digging in here, the thought of trading, pocketing some cash, and seeing Curnow basically at Wards value at the end of this week makes for very interesting decision making for my team, Rommels Legion.

Stanley, Matera and Prestia are the other main Gold Coast players on the boil.   I wouldnt run to get them in, but each of them have good claims to be a nice slow burner who can be upgraded in the Round 13 -14 time frame.   Every team needs to have slow burners who you get on the cheap then cash in later.   No use having everyone good to cow out early, because some you will have to keep in the team while you use your two trades per week.   Thats why a balance is always good to have.

At 180k, David Swallow came with a high price tag, and I certainly went for him - probably ill-advised - and now hes become a targeted youngster.   Though a very good player with heaps of smarts, and one of the best readymade draftees to hit the competition, alongside his young teammates, he is going to find it really difficult to carve out a high yield before culling time.   I can see him churning out the 70s, which means another slow burner in the midfield.   I wouldnt normally think of trading a player like him out, but with my team not having Curnow, and their value difference this week being only 18k, and the future projections being apart by at least 130k, I can see the thought behind moving him on.   Not for me though.

In defence, after perusing the options, theres Matt Watson and Brodie Smith on the bubble.   Id go Smith any day given the tasks that have been set for Watson.   Nothing against the kid, in fact I think hes Carltons best young option Ive seen in the past decade.  But if he plays full back he will be busting his guts to defend, rather than release.   But who to get rid of?   Thats a good question.   If Buckley cant return to the Collingwood team soon, it could be difficult to see him realising value.   Otten and Hunt are the two in the firing line of a few teams.   I know for a fact Otten can play better footy than hes done so far, and it would be hard to think Hunt can play worse. Hunt and Buckley are two who I would seriously consider giving the flick for Watson or Smith.

Finally up forward, I find it interesting to note that Jack Darling could just overtake Luke Tapscott in value in a few weeks.   All really depends on how things go this week though - one having the Hawks in Launceston (Darling) and one having Gold Coast at the Gabba (Tapscott).   Outside of the GC slow burners and everyones pick in Richardson, forwards looks an area to give a miss honestly.

In terms of Best Buys for the non-rookies, well its probably early to be thinking of these except in the case of LTI.

I cant really see too many players who are "must get" now.   Certainly there are no premiums with negative break evens - most of them are in the other category - of trying to cling to their value which is fast disappearing.

Though I dont like to say it, there is going to be real value in bringing in Joel Selwood in Round 7.   His value is about to take the hit from his first round 24.   Then its going to take another hit next round.   Unless Joel turns it on for his holders in the next few, we can be seeing a really beautiful upgrade option for the rest of the competition.   So come on Joel, smash out a few 180s!  Please!

Other guys to have your eyes on for future upgrades (as long as you dont already have them - if you do, please dont trade, just realise the rest of the comp is happy to get a bargain, and you have to grin and bear it like I am with Selwood):

Def: Cameron Bruce and Stiffy Johncock, so long as they find form and learn maybe a new style will present great upgrade value in defence in a few weeks.   Both have the class to respond.

Mid: The aforementioned Selwood is the one to watch, no doubt, but Leigh Montagna is another who would be a great sneaky early upgrade at Round 5.   Adam Cooney, I know I will get in trouble for writing him, but his price just sits at the level where you have to say, its time to jump in.   (That said, its probably doubtful he will be in the top 10 mids by end of year)

Ruck: Who are you kidding?  You should already have Sandilands and Cox!  Or Ryder!   Jump off Jolly while you can!

Fwd: Jack Riewoldt after what could be another tough night at the office v Collingwood could see his value go down to $300k once its gone through the 3 games wash.  Im liking the look of Didak as well.   To top it off Chapman at 500k by Round 6 could be doable depending on if he nails something over his current average.   If not, what a nice option to come.

I hope the look of these future options makes you temper your itchy trade finger this week.   Think seriously about your future strategy, and if in doubt (certainly this week and next) dont trade!