TooSerious Best Buys for Round 6. Now it gets TooSerious as the going gets tough.

Discussion in 'Blog' started by roberth, Apr 27, 2011.

By roberth on Apr 27, 2011 at 10:00 AM
  1. roberth

    roberth New Member

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    <h1>When the going gets tough, the tough get going...</h1>
    Its one of the mottos of my life, and so after what was a cataclysmic week for so many in Supercoach, its time for everyone to pick up their socks, dust off the dirt, wipe the blood from the face and get back into the ring for another bout.

    What a shame we have to do it this week without Franklin, Rioli, Selwood, Bartel, Enright, Broughton, Pavlich and Sandilands.  And others, but these guys will hurt enough.

    This is where we need to look at the Best Buys for the round, to see if they can make any difference to whats going on.   But first, an aside from me in assessing the current premium and elite players in the comp, on their form from their first 4 or 5 matches.   What is clear, above all else, is that 600k is the new 700k, and that the bargain bazaar is going to be chock full each weekend.   (Not that this is a surprise to many TooSerious readers.   As the Gold Coast entered the fray, we all knew, quick rookie appreciation in the bubble round - after their 3rd game - then slower from there, and that premiums would fall rapidly.   All due to the total player payments pool.   Walesy can regale us on this if so required.)

    And therefore, if 600k is the new 700k, then 450 could be the new 500. Im not sure if anyone else noticed that Gibbs (some piss-poor recent games, granted) has averaged 100 for the year, but is now under 450.   I wont say thats unheard of, but a small blip in form can cause huge ripples in player value.

    My thought on 450 then, following the logic, is thats gettable with two 300s.  Maybe even gettable with a 300 and a 250.  And that means think about getting on board the train headed for upgrade central this round.   A one-line comment on all current elite and premiums follows after the break, along with a quick assessment on all the players who I tipped to be premium this year who arent at the mark.   Finally, Ill try to hit the best upgrade and downgrade targets for each position.   Its not easy, so you will have to help in the comments to cover any ground I miss.

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    <h2>Lucas A1 Assessment on current elite and premium.   I think the phrase for them must be Vintage Crop.
    Swan - 139 - Should be set and forget captain.   Slight query in big matches where others can chew on his points.
    Embley - 130 -  Vintage form.  Worth looking at, but would question him being elite from here unless WCE make top 4.  A good M6 smoky though.
    Mundy - 129 - Starting to vindicate the faith put in him (and big $ from Essendon).  M6.
    Pendlebury - 128 - Just cruising.  Could easily have got more points on Anzac Day, so should be in P2.   Rd 7 will be painful when both miss.  Pick him over Swan in big matches though.
    Cox - 126 - Vintage.  And can keep it up.  What a star R2...at the moment hes the R1!
    Boyd - 124 - Back to the great form we expect from the Dogs captain.  Cant improve much from here, but borderline elite at end of year.  A good POD to consider.
    Bolton - 124 - Vintage again!  A change of role and some close games have artificially boosted his score.   Look for his average to hover back to the 105-110 mark.  Id avoid personally.
    Moloney - 122 - Melbourne have played GC/Brisbane so I take his elite with a grain of salt.  That said, could be premium at EOY.
    Fyfe - 120 - Making me take notice.  The best MF scorer currently.   Freo have played a good mix of good/avg teams so his form line holds.  476k makes me wait.  Better value elsewhere.
    Priddis - 119 - Love the dunny brush.  Even though he gets 200 handballs a week, its the contested mix helping him.  Winning form also helps - with not many others stealing his pie.
    Bartel - 118 -  Vintage again.   And coming down after next game youd think (though he could hit 154 v NM at Skilled).   If hes back under 500 that week, in he goes regardless of R22.
    Sandilands - 117 - Would be ahead of Cox if not for the eye poke.   The one certainty to score in any team.
    A Swallow - 117 - Has done the job for his owners, despite Norths bog-standard form.   Astute TS pick for those on board.   And should hold his ground above 110.
    Thompson - 116 - Has cleaned up points normally reserved for players like Goodwin and McLeod.   A very handy M6 POD from here and under 500 hmm.
    Chapman - 116 - Probably worth having even though he missed R1.   Chappys dont ever come cheap, especially not when Cats are winning.
    Griffen - 115 - Are we seeing a come-of-age break0ut year?  I cant say for sure just yet as the Dogs have had the lovely home double of GC-Bris.   But signs are promising.  M6POD.
    Ottens - 115 - Vintage of the vintages, has shown his class recently.   Can he hold it for the year?  Jury out but I say a big fat NO.
    Ablett - 114 - No longer the permacapt, but has blown us all away with his intensity.   Got the Suns over the line which is what a leader does.  Still a very valid player to grab R9 at 55ok.
    Pavlich - 114 - I wouldnt call it vintage, but a key reason for Freos great early form.   Dropped off last yr, but appears better managed in 2011 (more assistance).  Get on.  507k is cheap.
    Mumford - 114 - You almost couldnt go wrong in the ruck this year if you went 2 premiums.
    Watson - 114 - Very good start to the year against top quality opponents.  Should surge in the next few (GC/WCE/Bris).  Brownlow huge chance.  If not playing leagues, a good mid POD.
    Franklin - 114 - Has improved consistency in scoring.   How he got 95 when smashed for most of the game yesterday astounds me.  So a must in any team if scoring like that.
    Pedersen - 114 - Probably the player North needs right now.   Dropped but a guy with ticker.  Must come in soon, so keep an eye on him for downgrading.
    Mitchell - 114 - I thought he would benefit from Hodge taking over the captaincy.   A gun player in dare I say it vintage form.
    Murphy - 113 - Just going at the moment.   At 500k, a very handy player to have.   Keep handy, though probably after the bye in Round 8.   (Note outscoring Judd this year FYI)
    Goddard - 113 - In a side thats tanking Goddard is still scoring.  Look for a Saints revival and BJ at the heart of it.  Season 2011 is not gone for them by a long shot.  R7 pivotal.
    Adcock - 113 - Another TS selection who has done well.  Watch though for Drummonds return.  Its often hacked his points down to size.
    Redden - 110 - Very good form from the kid.  No one to steal his points and he is benefiting from no Rischitelli and Brennan in the midfield.   Opportunity = points.
    Martin - 108 - An absolute gun.   Best of his draft by a country mile.   About time Richmond snagged one.   A very interesting smoky for your M6.  Shame he still has two byes to come.
    Enright - 107 - Vintage start to the year but slowed off a touch last few games.  At 460k hes tempting and 450 is coming.   A nice upgrade target in the zone unless he kills NM (R7).
    Newman - 107 - What a vintage start from one of my favourites.  Not in my team and appears injured now, so not on my list to buy, but what a nice start so far.
    Scotland - 107 - He never played this well at Collingwood, but I guess he missed a flag.  Too bad for the traitor, as hed get a run in the Pies premiership defence at the moment.
    Jamar - 106 - As said before about rucks, almost couldnt go wrong this year.
    Ellard - 106 - More data needed.   Kicked a late goal, so I call scaling skewage.
    Judd - 106 - Quiet start from the champ.  Still a premium but I expect more from him, especially given the Blues have played GC.  At sub 500 you cant really ignore him as  R8 pickup.
    Rockliff - 106 - A real surprise for him to be there given Ive not really heard much from him this year.   Well done from last year rookie to possible premium.
    Dal Santo - 105 - Has done enough so far to score in SC, but I sense Saints fans have him in the gun for their poor start.   A tradeable commodity in their midfield one thinks.  GWS...
    Deledio - 105 - Has a bit of everything about him this year.  Two amazing games, some average slop in there.  At 470, Id say those without him get on after the Tiger bye (R11)
    Fisher - 105 - Most avoided having GodFish this year because of the bye issue, so he comes as a likely upgrade come R15 with a clear run to September.
    Kelly - 104 - Quiet achiever but gets the job done consistently.  Solely a mid and 475k, is at the awkward price point.  Not quite good enough for mine.
    Dawes - 104 - Great start to the year.  Gets points even when down which is a good sign.   Has firmed to be the first Pies forward selected in teams after R7.  410k and should sit awhile.
    Goodes - 104 - Has media raving on his form, but 104 is only a pass mark for Goodes.   At 470k you can find better value elsewhere, but his MPP could be handy.
    Rischitelli - 103 - Surprisingly here given GC uncompetitiveness in early matches.  Has done well so far.
    Curnow - 103 - The best rising star for the year, on the march to 400k and a near straight swap to a fallen prem.   The question is when to trade.  I fear most will hold on too long.
    Cross - 102 - Solid start to the year, but has been 3rd banana at the Doggies.   Deep midfield rotation there but somehow misfiring.
    OKeefe - 102 - Starting to settle to a more reasonable scoring pattern after two huge weeks early.   Has nipped those who brought him in on the strength of those matches.
    Rioli - 102 - Good start for this forward, and would be higher but for injury in crucial time of Hawks-Cats game scaling wise.   Will he miss given the Bye and a Friday game?  Still a hold.
    Montagna - 102 - A surprise he is prem.   Appears to be heading slightly south of 500k, which for a player of his class is a steal.  Saints to play more at home, so I say get him soon.
    Harvey - 102 - The evergreen keeps on keeping on.  A vintage start, but if North dont come good soon, he wont keep it up.   Playing on heart but not much else.
    Sylvia - 101 - Looks like it could be his year to shine.  That said I put not much stock in the run of Brisbane-GC.   Solid 87 v Hawks but 80s dont give you premium status.
    Jackson - 100 - Will have a week off with suspension.  A good start nonetheless, and one who has been munching on points you could think could go to Connors...hehe.
    Shaw - 100 - 100 appears his range, but that means bonafide defender to have in your team.   At 440 or thereabouts, he should sit and hit the 100s.  Scotland shades him but only just.
    Gibbs - 100 - Should be doing better.  At below 440 after this week, an absolute steal with MPP.   Id consider short term getting him as a mid if I didnt already have him.
    Higgins - 100 - Really churning out the points.  A great selection for those who kept the faith.   Still, regrettably you must still think he is a breakdown risk given his history.
    <h2>And now for the list of players who should be premiums but are under performing...
    Jack - 98 - Nearly there but some growth to happen in his game.
    N Riewoldt - 95 - Signs of life there.   Dont jump off yet.
    Burgoyne - 93 - Hate to say I told you so to Hawk fans, but hmmm.  Not enough pie.
    Hodge - 93 - This is a surprise, but probably a lot due to the Ling tag.   A crushing 200+ BreakEven when he plays Port away in a crucial R7 game.  450 is a possibility, then jump on.
    Simpson - 93 - Well no surprise for me because I predicted it, but some were convinced he could go premium again.   Curnow has had a big say in this.
    Selwood - 92 - Working into it.  Without his 24, his average improves to 115 so nothing to worry about here.  But a huge bargain if you dont have him.
    Boak - 90 - Not there yet.  A tough early run for the Power, but you hoped for more v GC.
    Broughton - 90 - A worry with Suban, then injury.   Just going.
    Grimes - 90 - Has played Bris and GC but not got anything much happening.   Needs to start scoring.
    Johncock - 80 - Not got a good average, but signs of life last week.   Keep on the watch list.
    Green - 79 - Good-average SuperCoach scoring.  But has played GC and Brisbane.   Might struggle to be a prem.
    J Riewoldt - 78 - The zero really cuts him up.  Otherwise borderline premium and at 350k.   Tigers havent had an easy run either (Pies, Blues, Hawks).
    Cooney - 77 - At this average, if Dogs were picking players purely on SuperCoach points, hed be close to getting dropped.   Needs to step up.  Could easily be under 400k this week.
    Jolly - 74 - Maybe his knee injury did make a big impact.  Beat three singlehandedly on Anzac Day (or did he just beat chumpy Bellchambers)
    Didak - 73 - Working into it, but not necessary now in most SuperCoach teams.  You wouldnt trade him in unless guaranteed midfield time, which hes no certainty to get.
    Bruce - 59 - Could be dropped, which says a lot.
    <h2>Best Buys for Round 6 per position:
    DEF: Adcock, Scotland and Fisher head a really chumpy list of defenders.
    MID: Hard to go past Judd/Selwood.   But their byes (R6, R8) Id avoid this week.   Thompson/Mitchell/Griffin look the best of the nearly 500s.   Swallow 500 looks solid also.
    RUC: Cox or Sandilands if you dont have them.   Obviously Sandi R7 though as he has the bye this week. :D
    FWD: Chapman the big fish, along with Pavlich.  Fyfe and Dawes improvers.   Dawes probably warrants a look vs Lake, and Freo have a bye with Geelong and Hawthorn so hold your fire looks the best option here (for a round)
    <h2>Downgrade Targets for Round 6 per position:
    DEF: Luke Thompson shows a bit and is on the bubble as is Pedersen for next 2 games.  He should eventually get game time so pick him in faith.   Coad and Buckley are similar customers. Buckley with MPP helps, but seems miles off Pies top 22.
    MID:  Polec is on the bubble this week.  Expensive but seems to be a gun.  Might be worth getting him for the cash.  Russell (GC) and Smith (STK) are bubbling away but probably job security is average, so maybe not the best options.   Iles should get a regular GC run having earned his spot back.   He has another week on the bubble so maybe wait one more.  Polec the best of a sorry group.
    RUC: Its gotta be Broc.   Huge prospect for the Lions as Brown is out.   Not sure of really long term backup value, but makes you think of trading in Smith for the cash.  Because there is absolutely NUTHIN else there.
    FWD: Nothing here.   Youd be best off going Callinan or Mzungu I reckon because they should play latter half of the year.  Otherwise it looks grim.   OK, if I were to think of an option, Id consider Alex Johnson from Sydney.  Not the best job security but I thought he looks OK and has the FD MPP.   Hes on the bubble.

    So after all that, whats your views?  Remember the byes, remember the lockout of Demons and Eagles tomorrow, and the rest the following evening.   Its a tricky weekend to manage a team, but some big moves will be made this weekend Im sure of it.

    Until next week, happy trading.
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by roberth, Apr 27, 2011.

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