Hi all...Yep its Duck Season as our good friend Ducky has got chopped for his intentional (not reckless) forearm to the ear of Hair Hat.

But what does it mean in Supercoach?  Main issues of course being the midfield malaise (Selwood, Swan, Pendlebury, Mundy, Montagna...) and the defence coverage (if say Adcock goes down it exacerbates the situation).   Read on for my take on it all...

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So what to do?  Trade or stick?  Well its all come down to a shocker of a situation.   For those holding some of the more popular midfield options, its not looking pretty.   My take on the situation for mids missing this week...

Pendlebury - BUY/HOLD
Swan - HOLD
Selwood - SELL
Mundy - SELL
Montagna - HOLD, but if gone this week and you cop a donut SELL

Its not great though.  People are saying, yeah but I can MPP Gibbs into my midfield, its still strong.   Yeah what rot.  It means from your 22 out goes Selwood and in comes someone like Stanley or Luke Thompson.   For a week you might consider it, but in the long run, forget that!   You are probably better off giving Selwood the flick.

Who to is the bigger question for the Selwood/Mundy holders out there.

Im thinking the answer to this one lies closest to home.

Now honestly...those without Ablett have a simple answer.  Id almost say the same about Boyd as well.   Two very solid options who can do the job.

If you dont have Pendlebury, its a tough one, because a straight swap between Selwood and Pendlebury would net you the best scoring player.  Thing is the bye strikes at the worst situation.   If you do this, you pretty much cost yourself at least 50 points, which may not be gained back over the concluding rounds of the year by Pendles v (say Ablett/Boyd).

So, scratching around, you could look on value, by which you have to consider Scott Thompson (though hes in a patch of average form), and then theres more risky moves like Moloney or Mitchell.

Ive taken the time to do a basic run home outlook on the 16 teams and with the easy draw being a higher score and a hard draw being a lower score, heres how it turned out (location I didnt factor in...)

Hawthorn 10.91, Geelong 10.09, WC 9.73, Melb 9.55, Port 9.36, WB/Adel 9.27, Rich 9.18, Syd 9.09, NM/Coll 8.82, Freo 8.73,  StK/Bris 8.64, GC 7.92, Carl/Ess 7.91.

So, surprise surprise, Geelong gets an easy run home.  Fair enough if you consider their tough run to now.   Hawthorn also a good run home, which is why so many jumped on General Hodge in the last few weeks.

Personally when I look at this, I think...

Mundy/Selwood gone, Bartel in.   Hodge or Mitchell another option for those with Bartel.

If you have to cover another Cat in the bye round 22, so be it.   Every player outside of Ablett has a bye to cover, and I think most teams dont have another Cat in the midfield.

The only real downside for Bartel is the fact that hes probably due a "general soreness rest" which could well come when Joel Selwood returns.   Thats a risk thats probably just as big for Mitchell (could miss this week with sick kids) or Hodge (achilles dont mess with them e.g Roughy).

The other options:  Priddis is a little unders at 490 but you dont get the handy extra 70k that Bartel would net from Selwood.   Rischitelli quietly goes about the business racking up 100 ppg and has no bye.   A bye translates to I think about a 50 point loss over 11 matches to come, so 100 ppg is just not enough to justify the trade to him in my opinion.

NDS is nicely placed as well, gives some change, and the Saints are hitting some form.   The fact is though, they do have a tough run home which could impact on points scoring.

Marc Murphy is a no for the Carlton factor of round 23.   Tough to cover two midfield losses (as we are seeing this week with the 5 outs).   I am not convinced on Wells or Swallow, and both are overs for mine - both would actually cost money to upgrade from Selwood.

So - in short, Bartel is my Best Buy for this week.

Downgrades

Strauss looked impressive last week.  Get on if you can do a downgrade of a player like Luke Thompson.   Though I am tempted to give Adcock the flick for him...depending on the medical reports.
I also like the look of Howe - reminds me of an inexperienced Dawes.   Both these two young Demons could provide a good source of points as backups in the latter rounds.
Smith for MPP is an option, but rumours about around Glenferrie of a groin issue here.

Oh well, join in the discussion and happy trading!