Hi all,

Welcome to another edition of Best Buys.

To upgrade, or not upgrade, that at times is the question.   Of course you want to get your team in gear, scoring points, but sometimes you have to think of the rookie downgrade alternatives, and to make a move down in order to go up in future.

This week in the blog comments I mused that I might do two downgrades this week instead of an upgrade, because of such good value around.

That thought, though just a hunch at the time, is proved to be quite flawed.  The best thing you can do this week is upgrade/downgrade as per usual. If you miss one bus, you just catch the next one.    And there are a few coming on in the next few weeks so its certainly not terminal.   And the cost of not having a fully upgraded midfield I reckon would be starting to hurt some teams.   Mine certainly - Im at least three weeks away from a fully upgraded middle with the issue of Grimes to have to work through.   This was probably a mistake on my part, but we all learn as we go along in this game, and hindsight is a wonderful teacher.

This weeks Best Buys and the interesting downgrade alternatives, yep its all after the break.

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The Best Buys this week once more have been derived from a value rating, along with some filtering of data to check that only players with a high average sneak through.   Heres my thoughts:

DEF:
Heath Shaw v Sam Fisher.   Both have a bye coming up soon, their last for the year.  Should you bring them in now in full knowledge of this?   My view is, particularly if you are carrying Grimes, the answer is Yes.   If you arent and D6 is one of your last upgrades, you might be able to push that out to R13/R14 without copping major burn.   If you have to choose between them, youd have to say Fisher, only because the Saints have been awful so the ball will be in defence plenty.    Even teams with Goddard could use Fisher because of Goddards MPP capabilities.

Outside of these two...Adcock is still a good option, though now more expensive value wise than the previous two.  He has a bye in the SC-bye so for leagues you have to consider him. For overall he is possibly a mistake, as those rounds are ones you need to make up ground, not concede more.

Gibbs if you dont have him is at an ideal price.   Newman is cheap but has two byes to come, and I cant justify getting him in now when you could wait 3 weeks.

Other unique POD options:  Hargrave came back with a 100+ on the weekend, and he has points scoring pedigree.  Nick Smith from Sydney has scored quite well this year, and though I havent seen enough of him live to make a judgment, he came up very strong on my value ratings.   Keep your eye out.   Suckling continues to smash out massive scores for his owners.   Not saying its too late to get on board.   Averages 101 for the year, and 101 for 3 rounds.   After 6 games you have to think its no flash in the pan.   At very close to Heppell price, he swings out better than Heppell scores.   Something to think about.

And one for the memory bank - Mark Nicoski.   Dont get him now, but if youd listened to me and not other forum members at the start of the year, you would have got a real great rookie bargain.  Im ashamed to say I listened to your howling laughter and comments and didnt have the guts to put him in my team.   But a nice 83 ppg with form over 100.

MID:
Joel Selwood.   Hes the value man, fully fit, fully umpire protected, and doing real damage with clearances.   At 108 ppg average for the year including a 24, he is proving to be elite this season.   Outside of him, my value ratings still give David Mundy and Scott Thompson the thumbs up.   Both are from non-Victorian teams which might mean the non-Foxtel owners (of which I am a member) dont fully realise their value as players.

And then theres next weeks man - Gary Ablett junior.   The permacapt is back.

I could see a good POD option of going with Thompson-Ablett for an average of 500k.   These could lock your midfield in, and give you some nice diversity from the pack.   They are cheaper than other options around.

Im liking Boyd/Pendlebury if you are a player seeking the 120 ppg.   Pendlebury at the moment is better value.   And then theres Judd fresh off the bye.   Three blue chip stocks to run your eyes over.   Its probably rare if you have all three, but they will rarely let you down.   Other than that, please consider Nick Dal Santo, a player headed for one of the easiest B&amp;Fs you could get at St Kilda.  The final one here I say to do the Mitsubishi to is Priddis.   Im still singing his praises, maybe I will just bite the bullet and put him in the team.

POD cheapies in the middle are not something I advocate, but heres a few for the real gamblers:
Joel Corey, Daniel Wells (coming of age year), Trent Cotchin (ditto), Tom Rockliff (the kid can play), Daniel Rich (ditto),  James Kelly, Michael Rischitelli, Leigh Montagna (criminally cheap but playing criminally badly...), Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge.  Hodge should nail his BE this week and is mid 400s.  I watch with interest him vs the Swans.  If he gets 100+ jump on.

RUC - I dont think we need to talk about this area any more.   You need premium rucks, and generally all of us have them.   Plenty to pick from, you can do your own research.

FWD:
I really dont like the options here.   Ryan OKeefe and Colin Sylvia look the best value options for the week.   Lots of trash around.

Having seen Steve Johnson first hand last week, you could do worse than putting him in ahead of Chapman.  Save some coin and get a similar return.
Jarryd Roughead looks a smoky selection.   I know most have Franklin and some have Rioli, but if you havent overloaded on Hawks, give Roughy a look, especially if he plays the "Leigh Brown" role.   Because hes way more talented and damaging than Leroy, and he can win a hitout to boot.

Two players I routinely dont select and consistently prove me wrong are Harvey and Fyfe.   Both are I think over the odds this week, but they do get points, so if money is not that important to you jump on.

Most of the other value is patchy.   Even Chapman doesnt have the edge he once did.   But at 460k next week, you have to look twice.

PODs: Nahas, Brennan, Roughead, SJ

Downgrade options:

Well there are plenty.   Lynch next week looks a goer, as will in future be Mzungu.   Id probably advise waiting if possible to see his form.   Harper is on the bubble and shows promise at North.   As does Pissoff from St Kilda.

In the middle you have Smith (fwd as well) and Hibberd on the bubble.   With Watson and Hocking gone for the next few, I think Hibs position is as safe as it can be for a while, so you can put in the DM link.

Down back Puopolo is the man to get this week, but Jacobs (mid as well) is another decent option if you miss him this week.   Cripps looks like he will get a run, scoring however, is another story.  He stinks it up a bit.

Happy to discuss any trading issues in the comments.  Happy trading again this week, and lets hope Rioli and Higgins play this week!