Welcome to another edition of the Best Buys
ADVICE FOR THE WEEK
Some timely advice to consider if you want to win overall, or your league. Consider your trades precious, and look to buy low and sell high. This means that it is often more important to time your downgrades right more than upgrades. Downgrades allow you to realise value and net a bargain. Upgrades need to be thought through similarly. I will make it clear, if you want to win, you need to make best use of every dollar, and as such you should avoid paying full price for a premium...or for any player. Due to the cyclical nature of the game, and the 3300 rule, there will almost always be a player who represents value or a bargain. Therefore, bring in bargains for upgrades, not necessarily best player available. If the best player is a bargain too, thats good and well. An example of this is Brendon Goddard at the moment. The best defender, but is about 50k away from his peak.
On to the rest of the show:<!--more-->
FRESH MEAT
Two players at the 2 game mark, both from Perth
Roberton from Fremantle; Stevenson from WCE. Both have shown decent form, both are slightly risky selections in terms of job security (Stevenson a rookie), both are relatively cheap and in the good areas for cows (DEF/MID).
Hughes looked decent for Melbourne in the light of Petterds injury. Could be a prospect here.
Wait on Rohan to show more this week after a Swans shellacking at Skilled. Could do more so hold fire.
Sheppard and Webberley came through as defenders debuting, and as such are worth a look for another week to see which one is a better downgrade prospect.
Jaensch is also at the two game mark as a forward, and needs to be considered in light of your trading strategy, particularly if you are looking to do a keeper cow (e.g. Hall out - a risky move for mine)
From last week though, much meat put on the table for us hungry traders which is good to see.
CATCH THE TRAIN
At the midpriced level you have Travis Varcoe (mindful of Stokes return) and Rhys Palmer.
James Podsiadly still represents value at the moment, even though hes 250k worse than you could have nabbed him for. Last week of value.
Daniel Cross and Joel Selwood are current top 20 mids at the lower point in a cycle.
Dane Swan and Brendon Goddard represent low points for players who have been top in positions or very close in previous years. At 550 for Swan and 575 for Goddard, they may not end up much cheaper over the longer haul.
ON THE NOSE
Players who are losing value like its going out of style - again next weeks bargains come in this slop.
Adam Goodes. Totally on the nose. Could go under 400 - and then for mine he is a buy regardless of how poorly he is playing!!
Barry Hall. Has had a few Barry Crockers. Im not sure on him. Lots of Etihad games, but some challenges in keeping him. I think hes a hold but only just. I dont think he will provide value at 330k for people wanting a downgrade. Its either hold or thats it for his year - he has served his purpose.
Brad Sewell. In a non-full strength Hawks mid, he has come down in price. Will keep doing so and represents one of quite a few decent Hawk mid options in the next few weeks (Mitchell, Sewell, Burgoyne in that order)
Matthew Boyd will be carrying a 70 for the next few weeks.
Leigh Montagna also had a quiet one for the Etihad Specialist. Unsure if hes the best value but if he has another sub 100 game in the next 3 will be quite tasty.
Finally Nick Dal Santo has had a few average games, and could come into 500 zone. For him thats cheap and good punters will pounce on a legitimate upgrade target.
BEST BUYS PER POSITION:
Defenders: Premium I think theres plenty. Enright, Gilbert, Malceski, Shaw, Hurn take your pick on who you dont have. For midrange, I dont see anyone. For rookies, well theres Roberton for the risk takers with Webberley and Sheppard on the monitor.
Midfielders: Premiums at the low level this week (not future) are Goddard, Murphy and Bartel, with Swan also worth a second glance if you have the cash to splash. Stanton and Boak are still underpriced options. Rookie downgrades see Stevenson, Rohan and Cunnington.
Forwards: Probably the best value is in the forwards as per usual. Outside of the two standouts Chapman and Pavlich, any other forward represents value from one perspective, and risk from another. Brown is a cheap premium, and a mix of Varcoe, Betts and Higgins makes up my trio of good options in the forward setup. Danny Hughes is on rookie watch this week.
Rucks: Outside of Sandilands its still a bit of a mess. Dean Cox is still a few weeks off being the low price. Interesting is the fact that Kepler Bradley is the 2nd high average (only one game but maybe Freo know something we dont). Bradley would open up an MPP slot for those with Jackson Trengove down back. But at 322 and no job security I think we know its a no (even though hed be a first 18 player at Hawthorn and Sydney at the moment hehe)
Personally I see this week as a back your team week though it may be influenced by team selections.
Best of luck for the week and happy trading.
TooSerious Best Buys
Discussion in 'Blog' started by Mattoc, May 12, 2010.
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Discussion in 'Blog' started by Mattoc, May 12, 2010.