Good afternoon all.  Time for another instalment of Best Buys.

Advice for the week:
This week I think its pertinent to think of the run home for teams.  When you get players in from here you need to consider that you will hold them until the end of the year.  Because we are getting towards mid point of the year, you need to know whether teams are going to be better on the run home due to a better draw.  The flawed AFL fixture means that some teams should have the potential to generate late momentum (Saints, Pies) where others have landmines in their way.  Interestingly Geelong has a fairly difficult run in SuperCoach finals.

So - take into account "the next few rounds" in getting a few players in for cheap particularly if they have an OK run home.  But as most of us here are going to be trying to win our leagues, the key rounds to note are 19-22.  I find particularly 19 to set you up (20 the fall back if double chance), 21 is a must as is 22.  Loading up on the wrong teams and player combinations (e.g. Carlton has bogey team Essendon in 19, Richmond in what could be a useless 20, then Geelong in 21 and Freo away in 22) could prove costly.  Be warned and plan ahead.

Now on to the regular items:<!--more-->

FRESH MEAT
This week much of the talk is about Jack Watts, the #1 pick thats done Jack All so far, but has strung two together for the Demons.  Whether to trade down a cow and enjoy watching Watts in action is a big decision.  I think you have to think about what youd be getting him in for if you do.  For a reliable F8, well Gumbleton is already handling this thanks very much.  For a F7 (well you are stuffed) or to get some cash for an upgrade it MAY be worth looking into, but I guess I would be loath to suggest Watts is the next Podsiadly SC-wise.   Maybe the next Fyfe for a few more $.  I personally am not convinced on his job security, but hey, I thought the same of Pods (blush..)

Another to get a run has been Henry Playfair, getting a Sydney run after getting fit, and through the Seaby-Mumford injuries.  Does he have job security, Im not sure, but if the trade is just for money and with emergency not too important hes cheaper at 107k.

Wonaeamirri and Gunston are other options under 200k but have another week to run.
Campbell Heath looks a potential defensive downgrade option from the Swans.  Have another look this week, but dont ignore in your plans.  A noted good ball user and starting to mature having moved to Sydney this year.

CATCH THE TRAIN
Rohan, Webberley and Sheppard are at week 3, and just about time to get on board.  If you need to secure MPP for the forwards and possibly save multiple trades later, Rohan comes at a price of nearly 200k today.  Webberley and Sheppard both appreciated last week and are probably out of range in future.

Kepler Bradley, Adam Cooney and Lenny Hayes are three guys who appear in the zone for an increase in price this week, and Id suggest in the Cooney case he does go on yoyo runs, so you might get him low now (lower than his start price) but likely not in future.  At the price represents value.

Buddy Franklin is the forward who looks to be about to bubble over.  Has been decent value and form all year, just missing games is his biggest issue.  If you have good cover up forward, dont discount him from your plans, though the Hawks do travel a lot in the run home.

ON THE NOSE
Scott Thompson?  Jason Akermanis?  Saints (and Pies)?
Those that want to get into Ablett, I think it is clear he is going down soon.  Other players who appear to be going that way would be Giansiracusa, Betts, Stanton and potentially Heath Shaw.

BEST BUYS:
DEF: Gilbee, Gilbert and Goodwin (for want of a G) are underpriced.  No great midrange options outside Crapula.  Avoid him.
MID: Cooney is the best value I reckon, with good value to be had from Judd, Montagna, Boyd, Bartel, Murphy and Dal Santo.  All are good options in the right teams, so work out if they suit your team balance.
RUC: Cox for an upgrade, Skipper for a downgrade.  Avoid the rest.
FWD: Really hard to find good value consistent forwards this year.  For those who want out of Brown (I can understand it but cant bring myself to do it) your best picks seem to be Franklin, Thomas and I am of the opinion Goodes has started to turn the SuperCoach corner.  A very makeable <60 BE and under 400k, I think you have to strike now and get him.

Until next week, happy trading.