Welcome to the first of the Too Serious Discussions.

What are the Too Serious Discussions? Essentially, a question is asked of each of our writer, and we provide a brief paragraph or to that sums up our thoughts. Then you, the reader can agree, or tear us apart, in the comments. Choose a favorite- sledge the other guys if you want. Its mean to be fun, and most importantly, generate discussion on the topic on hand.

So, what is the topic on hand? To Gary or not to Gary. Hes $744k and an average of 140. Can you, should you say no?

Today weve got 4 people posting their thoughts...
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First off the ranks- Is last years SuperCoach Winner, Chris.
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Ok, so to Gary or not to Gary. The same question was asked last year, and those who didnt pick the little bald fella got burned just like his taggers. Everything says you must pick him. However, last season, there was absolutely no reason to think he wouldnt smash it every week (which he subsequently did) and i think anyone who didnt pick him round 1 last year were either very tight with coin or just mentally retarded.

BUT, i think this year there may be a shred of doubt and those who dont pick him can at least have a foot to stand on in an argument when he starts busting out those 190s. Gary has won his brownlow, he has won the flag the Cats wanted (ie, had to work for), he has lost his missus and he has golden beaches and surf on his mind. Also, i dont think the gap between Gary and the mere mortals like Nicky Dal is so great this year. The pts per game difference this year could be down to under 10pts.

The biggest worth for Gary tho, is the big C next to his name. It is because of this big C that every team should have the little champ in their team from round 1.
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Next up, we have the crowd favorite, Knighty.
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Ablett may have been overlooked for the Geelong captaincy, but in Supercoach thousands of teams should rely on him as their captain from round one, despite his steep price. Yes, it is highly likely his price will fall during the year, but Supercoach isnt won by the team with the biggest rise in value, it is won by the team with the most points. Even assuming that Ablett’s output will decrease by about 15 a week, you will still be losing in terms of value for money by putting a player who averages 115 (about 600K, ala Goodes, Riewoldt, Goddard) as captain. Let’s use Riewoldt as an example, because his price is easily rounded and I’m extremely lazy J.

Riewoldt, 600K, predicted average 115, 230 as captain.

Ablett, 744K, predicted average 130, 260 as captain.

You save 144K by picking Riewoldt, but lose 30 points a week. 144K divided by the magic number=about 28 points, which shows that you are not going to gain any value from another player.

The greatest advantage of picking Ablett up from the start though is the save in trades. By round 22, you need to have Ablett in your side. Getting him into your side will definitely require 2 trades, maybe 3. By having him straight away, you save on these trades, which will be invaluable later on. The only reason I can think of not to pick Ablett is Geelong’s habit of putting him in cotton wool, however by the time that happens you may have put yourself so far behind the rest of the Ablett led pack that it won’t matter.
And for all those who think Ablett will be affected by the preseason happenings at Geelong, the Gold Coast offer, etc etc, remember that Gazza is an extremely competitive and tough individual. I draw your attention back to round 9 in 2008, when Collingwood gave Geelong an 86 point thrashing. Even then, when Geelong was down and out, Gazza never gave up and was running around and cutting Collingwood to shreds. It was that performance that made me pick him last year, and will make me pick him again this year, because that game showed me that Ablett has guts as well as skill.
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And finally, myself, Walesy.
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The thing about Ablett, last year, he scored a grand total of 2662. Which was only 20 points less than the second highest point scorer, Montagna however hes entering this season a full 60k more expensive. Why was this? Simply because Ablett missed 3 games. In fact, the year before, Ablett missed 4 games. So he definitely isnt the most durable cue in the rack. So on that alone, I would say no to ablett.

However, we dont rate Ablett on that alone. When we talk about Ablett, one word comes up. Captain. Having Ablett as captain will net you an extra 30 points per week, for the season. Or a massive 660 over the season.

So the question I ask myself. How many games does Ablett need to miss to negate that 660? Say hes bench and subbed with a 60 Average- While your new captain scores 110. You would *still* need Ablett to miss over 5 games to break even. Of course, thats assuming your replacement scores 60.

Of course, this is all dependant on Ablett keeping his average. But with 660 points on the line, thats not a risk Im willing to take.
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And finally, because it seems that weve all gone the same way, Ive pulled in a ringin to play the Devils Advocate. So Mr. Advocate, youre not selecting Gaz? Do tell.

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Gaz to Swan and youre saving yourself 90K straight up. Enough for an upgrade like Cooney to Gibbs making 15ppg right there. Between the issues with the Gold Coast, the girlfriend, the potential fallout from Stokes and a possible Brownlow hangover to contend with this season Ablett could find it that much more difficult to maintain his monster average. He doesnt play a full 22 games, a point that needs to be part of any SuperCoaches calculations.

Then theres the fact that every man and his dog (and, yanno, their "wives" teams) will have Abblett on board starting up this year. If Ablett doesnt perform and you have him its a bit of a no harm, no foul situation - most everyone will be in the same boat. If Ablett doesnt live up to his reputation and you dont have him... Youll be in a much better position than most of the field. Its admittedly a high risk strategy but not one that should be completely dismissed without giving it a little thought first.
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So there you have it, the first Too Serious discussion. What do you think Ablett seems an obvious pick, but how are you justifying picking him, or more importantly, leaving him out?

(Oh, and if youve got a topic you would like to see us discuss, feel free to send an email through to <a href="mailto:too.serious.team.management@gmail.com?subject=Discussion suggestion>too.serious.team.management@gmail.com[/url] and let us know what you would like to see.