[podcast]http://tooserious.net/podcasts/round6_bestbuy.m4a[/podcast]
Welcome to TooSerious Best Buys

Round 7 and now it’s time to consider some of the Best Buys as everyone is looking to improve their teams over the next few weeks.

As discussed many times on fantasy footy forums one of the ways to build a good side is to initially select a sample of rookie players and upgrade your starting team once the rookies gain value.

More over the break<!--more-->

The usual way this is completed is by selling a rookie once they approach their maximum value, down to another rookie who can in turn go up in value.

The cash increase you gain from this rookie sell down, commonly referred to as a Cash Cow, allows you the money to increase one of your current starters into a better player.

From Round 7-12 is probably the main time for upgrading your team, because this is a time when rookies peak in their value, and can then be sold.

Facilitating the best Cash Cows requires a few points to be noted.

1) Try not to pay full price for a player at any time. There’s generally a discounted player available, so look for them first.
2) Ensure your downgrade reasons are clear. If you are looking for maximum cash and you don’t need bench coverage from a rookie, choose one of the sub $100,000 players. If you need bench coverage, you might need to think about getting a player who can play multiple positions in your team, or someone slightly more expensive but will give peace of mind.
3) Keep an eye on the players who have played their 2nd game. This is the last week you can downgrade a current maxed out rookie to them before their price rises. By trading into players in this week, you can save yourself $60,000 to be used on upgrading your team. The TooSerious site keeps track of these players on the Stats tab, under the Fresh Meat heading.
4) Try not to sell a champion at their lowest point. If they have had a few issues in recent weeks, then think if there are reasons why (they played Geelong/St Kilda) and if this is rectified in the future. Nothing worse than selling out low, and then seeing the champion respond and not riding the upward wave.
5) Don’t trade because someone else is, or because a player got points last week. Chasing last week’s points is generally a rookie error, and though past performance can be a predictor of tomorrow’s success, it can be down to a range of factors such as the strength of the opposition team.

So with those disclaimers out of the way, I will move on to talking you through some of the Best Buys.

The structure will be in four main sections.

Fresh Meat
This will include players who are due to play their third match and need to be traded soon to take advantage of their value.

Catch the Train
Players with a very low break even who if you miss them now, you miss the train.

On the Nose
Players with a very high break even who if you are holding, you need to think about trading soon or at least know that their value is going down for an extended period and you need to show faith. I will also try and list some injured players here, though generally these are best known on Thursday and Friday with team selections.

Finally, the Best Buys per position. Defence, Midfield, Ruck, Forward and Multi-Position

FRESH MEAT
Normally around this time there are a few new players around that can be good down trades. Previous years have had options such as Greg Broughton and Liam Anthony stepping up and giving some tremendous value. This year, the pickings are slim.

For players under $200k, the best options appear to be:
In Defence
Dylan Robertson from Fremantle. He still has a week until he goes up, so take a look this weekend.
Jeromey Webberley from Richmond, who has been on the cusp of selection in recent weeks. Again he has not played a match so I would wait on trading unless absolutely necessary.
Marcus Davies from Carlton has big wraps, but again no matches means we cannot give an objective view.
In Midfield
Ben Howlett from Essendon is all the rage. He played well in the first two games, got a few matches off for disciplinary reasons, and has dominated for the Bendigo Bombers the last two. If he is picked, get on him, because he is going to go up.
Ben Cunnington from North had lots of positive press this year but it’s not certain he is able to deliver at the moment. A quiet start in the first few games means he could be on the cutting edge of selection this week after an interrupted start to the year. I wouldn’t be rushing to throw a downgrade his way this round, even though he is probably going up by $15000.
No other players are at the bubble, and to be honest the pickings in the midfield is rather slim.
In the Ruck
Generally you don’t down-trade in the ruck. Your options here are Jordan Roughead from Dogs, Matt Lobbe from Port and Dawson Simpson from Geelong. The Cats option might get a few games in the absence of Ottens.
Up Forward
Only four players under $200k got a game last week, which is slim pickings indeed.
Nathan Fyfe got points two weeks in a row in Fremantle’s strong team. Can he stay there? If you don’t really care, you have the best downgrade option right here.
Jarrad Grant is doing well in the Dogs team, and could get a longer run. He comes at a higher price of 150k but has looked impressive in a good team.
Matthew Jaensch got a run and looked OK in a battered and beaten Adelaide team. Of these three he is the only one with a week to wait, so I’d watch and see how he goes this week against Richmond.
Matt Lobbe is the only other forward option, but I’d probably have him as a ruck option. Though he does look to be playing fairly regularly recently as a backup to Dean Brogan.

CATCH THE TRAIN
Howlett – as mentioned earlier if he is picked you should trade him in.
Ashton Hams is on the brink of going up again. He went up last week after his 3rd game with WCE but at 150k for a relatively reliable young defender is worth a look. Similarly Simon White is doing a similar role at Carlton, and appears to be keeping Jarrad Waite out.

Lindsay Gilbee and Paul Bower appear to be going up quickly, so if you can afford them, now is the cheapest they will be in a while.
Daniel Giansiracusa has found form recently and looks a decent buy, as does Lance Franklin.

Most good midfielders are not on their way up in value, but down. And that leads to the next subject.

ON THE NOSE
As said before this zone is one that is where yesterday’s dud is tomorrow’s legend. Here are some future legends who have been in bad form, and are losing value fast.

Nathan Bock. In the 440s now, and could be mid 300s soon.
Leon Davis could be an option to trade in if he hits the 350 zone.
Sam Mitchell, when he returns wait a few weeks, because he will go down. Possibly to 380k
Brad Sewell is on his way down after an average return after injury. Look for his scores to pick up, but his price to keep dropping over the next fortnight.
Cyril Rioli. Could be another tasty mid 300s option. He has not stopped falling and I pity the players who jumped into him when Riewoldt got injured, directly after the 150 he scored against the Dogs. This is a classic case of chasing the points. At 350 he will hit his current value, but if the Hawks catch a whiff of a return to form, jump on.
Simon Goodwin. Over 30 so judged to be old in today’s game, but is better than he has shown recently. He will hemorrhage some more, but anywhere around the 400 mark would be a good buy so long as there are no injury concerns raised. He and the Crows will improve.
Adam Goodes. On the nose something chronic. For him I’d wait another week. His form has been OK, but a complete change of role means he doesn’t score like the old Goodes.

Hopefully also Brendon Goddard can join this list. He is just showing signs of slipping to 550k.

For injuries the main area affected once more is the ruck with Seaby and Ottens out with long term injuries, and Fraser considered a maybe for this week.

BEST BUYS PER POSITION
Now for this week’s best buys.

DEF – Lindsay Gilbee as a premium, with good value to be found in Bower, Gilbert and Newman.
MID – Chris Judd though Collingwood showed a group tag works better than one-on-one. Still Judd is the premium for me. For value, I see something special in Gibbs, Selwood and Stanton.
RUC – Aaron Sandilands is the only decent premium and the logical choice for a Seaby-Ottens upgrade.
FOR – I assume Chapman is out of your reach or in your team, and Brown is in your team. Outside these two legends of our modern game, the best value options are Bradshaw, Franklin, Giansiracusa and Thomas.
MPP – There are always good MPP high end options. The best premiums this week are Gilbee (MD) and the surprise packet Grundy (DF). For lower priced MPPs, the best options are Rohan who is yet to play a game, and Farmer, who is over 200k. If you didn’t start with Farmer, it’s going to be expensive getting him in.

Until next week, happy trading.