Ive been asked a couple of times recently about trading now so I feel that it is time to put something out there.

Sure, this article wont be as long as <a href="http://tooserious.net/?p=821">the last one[/url] - however it will open that same way.

Then I asked the question, what makes a winning team? Now I ask the question, what makes a good trade?

Funnily, the answers to both questions are the same.

A good trade scores you the most points.

So whenever I think of making a trade, the question I like to ask myself is: How many points will this trade make me over the season?

When discussing this, its important to understand the implications of Points per game (ppg). To examine this, well look at a case study.

Say I have Martin, who is averaging 70. I decide that I want to trade him up to Bartel who is averaging 110. Firstly Ill need to free up the cash difference between Martin and Bartel, so we will need to trade our other Cashcow, Jetta, down to a rookie priced player. We can then use that cash to turn Martin into Bartel.

So what we have now, is two trades netting us an additional 40 ppg (or 20ppg per trade.) however, youll also need to consider the timing of the trade. Making that trade in round 6 will score you an extra 320 points over the season (20ppg * 16 rounds). However, making that same trade in round 11 will only score you and extra 220 (20ppg * 11 rounds) over the season.

This is an important concept to visualise, because an injury to a premium, with no coverage, is going to cost you 110ppg.

So in the above case, you would be just as well off covering a 2 round injury rather than scoring a 40ppg upgrade from one of your rookies. And is why saving trades for the end of the season becomes important because as you keep getting injuries, a two or three week injury could be a much wiser place to spend your trades.

Of course, having bench coverage changes the maths in that a bit meaning you would need Bartel out for 4 rounds before a trade would be more beneficial.

So, how does this theory apply to actually trading? (over the break)
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As a general rule of thumb, I use the value of 300 points for the season as the minimum any good trade should get you. (or 6,000 extra points for all trades together.) Anything less than that, and you should seriously be wondering if the trade is worth it.

This is exactly why sideways trading your premiums right now is a bad idea. You would need a 15 point difference in average over the season for that trade to be worth it. And based on one or two games alone, thats a *huge* call to be making.

A great example of this is the idea that was floated last week on trading Pendlebury out for Swan. This week it was proven to be a bad trade.

A good trade on the other hand, is one Im planing on pulling out this week. Mattner down to Malceski. Not only should it improve my ppg by the requisite 15ppg, but it should exceed that while freeing up additional cash for later.

This is the other side of the equation when valuing a trade, the cash portion of it. In our previous case study, Martin to Bartel in two trades for 40ppg is a neat little statement, however in reality, one portion of that trade is freeing up cash, and the other is a 40ppg increase, so we have to ask. How do we value cash.

On average, I think that a trade down will need to net you at least 200k to be worth it. But really, the more the merrier.

How this works in practice- as the year progresses, your rookies will appreciate in value. A rough average of 70 will see them hit 300k by round 7.

And with two of these rookies, you would then trade one down to a 100k player and the other one up to a 500k player. Preferably a player that has come down in price. The stats page is a magnificent place to find these bargains, both the 100k player and the 500k player can be identified using the <a href="http://tooserious.net/?page=main">Stats pages[/url]. Though we do provide analysis throughout the year to assist you guys in making the best trade possible.

Now, because salary movements work on a 3 game rolling average, a single bad game (or great game) can have a *huge* effect on a player.

For example, say its round 5, Martin has been averaging 70 so his salary is up to $250k. He then scores a massive 140, and then goes back to averaging 70.

His price would have peaked at $370k in round 7, instead of the $300k that his average would imply. His salary would also fall the next week due to the 140 he scored falling out of his rolling average. We call this a players Peak Price. We want to sell our players at their peak.

Now, lets say Bartel does the opposite, he gets his average up to round 5, then cops a heavy tag and scores 60. His salary would drop to $500k come round 7, and be ready so shoot up in salary the next week once that 60 falls out of his rolling average. Generally this is known as bottoming out and is the perfect time to pick up a player.

So all in all, you would be trading out a $300k player, to get a $600k player and only paying $130k for the privlege. Heck thats almost an extra trade saved right there!

This is where TooSerious does its best work, using the stats page and the Calculators, you can make fairly educated guesses as to whether a player is at thier peak, or bottoming out and can make your trades based on that knowledge.

And by timing these trades right, you maximise the value of each one and therefore maximising the points you earn.


Now, I touched briefly on sideways trades earlier and on trades needing to earn you cash *or* points. What I didnt touch on is sideways trading *for* cash.

ie- Rookie swapping in round 3.

This should only be done if youve missed a blinder, or youre holding someone thats not going to play. Why shouldnt you just upgrade as many rookies as possible to players who will improve more? because the cash earned by the player youre trading into is lessened by the fact that youre using two trades to free it up.

So time for another case study.

Say I have Gumbleton. Hes averaging 50 and is looking to max out at $240k and Im thinking about trading him out to Peterson, averaging 78. You need to realise that at that average, Peterson will peak at around $370k. Which means youve used a trade to secure an additional $130k, which falls under the requisite $200k you should be aiming for with a trade.

However, if your rookie is on the field, youre gunna be netting an extra 15pgg. Though consider that because they are rookies, they will be traded up around round 8, so netting you a total of 90 points as well as the cash. Might be enough to make the trade worth while- Provided you believe the rookies involved will keep those averages. And rookies are notorious for being inconsistant, they also have a tendency to go down to the VFL when players come back from injury.

Of course, the more a rookie is averaging, the more likely it is that that sum is going to come out in your favor. So if you dont have Barlow, you must get him in.

Does it answer the question of Trengove -> Shuey though? Youll score an extra 70k straight off the bat, but do you believe youll be able to sell Shuey for 130k more than youll sell Trengove? Personally, I doubt it.

Sorry, youve missed that pick and trading to pick it up just isnt worth it. Just like with sideways trading premiums.

And to finish off the article, Ill leave you with one huge piece of advice:
Trade as close to lockout as possible. Unexpected things happen, the classic example is Bartel going in for appendix surgery 2 hours prior to lockout. Dont let this happen to you when its so easily avoidable!