Evening all,

The Pies v Bombers clash has brought about some great contests, since they drew in the inaugural Anzac Day clash back in 1995.  Since then, the count is 9-7 in Collingwoods favour, with 4 games decided by less than 2 kicks, and the margin blowing out by over 10 goals on just 3 occasions.

Both have experienced periods of dominance throughout this time, with the Bombers unbeatable during 99-01, where they won a premiership, played in another GF and made a prelim.  Collingwood however have had the upper hand in the last 6 years, winning all but one contest when Zaharakis kicked that famous goal.

But there is a smell of change in the air.  Collingwood, almost unstoppable as little as 6 months ago, who since losing the GF are sitting at 2-2, with all but modest victories to date over Richmond and Port Adelaide.  Essendon on the otherhand, are on the way up, being one of 3 unbeaten sides after 4 rounds, and most notably coming off a big win over the highly fancied Carlton last Saturday.

To see what lies ahead, click over the page...<!--more-->Collingwood have been down on predicted form this year - not just in the eyes of the pundits or the bookies, but the stats tell the same story.  Based on the team theyve had on the park, they should be sitting at 3-1:

Loss to Hawthorn by 22 points  (predicted to lose by 25 points)
Win over Richmond by 21 points (predicted to win by 10 points)
Loss to Carlton by 60 points (predicted to win by 13 points)
Win over Port Adelaide by 24 points (predicted to win by 22 points)

Overall they are 1 win down and 57 points down against expected (but still played above themselves on 3 out of 4 occasions).

Surprisingly, Essendon have also been playing below their statistical expectations, despite their 4-0 start to the year:

Win over North Melbourne by 2 points (predicted to win by 24 points)
Win over Port Adelaide by 25 points (predicted to win by 48 points)
Win over Gold Coast by 17 points (predicted to win by 48 points)
Win over Carlton by 30 points (predicted to lose by 12 points)

Equating to 34 points down overall on expectations, but still without loss.

(for more info on how predictions are calculated, refer to last weeks post)

What does this weeks figures tell us?  Based on the teams picked for selection, Essendons 22 add up to $8,863,500 in total value.  Collingwoods 22 can only muster $8,023,200 - or 47.51% of total value.  Shaw, Thomas and Ball missing have a massive impact on the expected outcome, with the final prediction sitting with Essendon @ 28 points.

The line is currently sitting at 5.5 points in Collingwoods favour.  This means, the Essendon bet enjoys a 33 point buffer - with the error rate being below 33 points 67% of the time.  The reason the line is such a great bet in these instances, is that in that 33% where the error rate is > 33 points, this is split in each direction... i.e. statistically, Essendon are just as much a chance to win by > 61 (28+33) points, as Collingwood are to win by 6 or more points.  Effectively, this 33% is shared between each outcome, giving Essendon+5.5 points an 83% (67+16) chance of occuring.  Essendon straight up sit at a 75% chance based on the error rate.

So which is the better bet?

The line is currently paying 1.90, whereas at 83% should be at 1.20.  This is a 1.57 better bet than the odds are offering.

The win is currently paying 2.15, whereas at 75% should be at 1.33.  This is a 1.61 better bet than the odds are offering.

Best bet for Anzac day?  Essendon for the win.