Best bets is back - and given limited time between teams coming out, and running calculations:  lets great straight into it.  Tips for this week:

Fremantle (St Kilda)
Carlton (Essendon)
Collingwood (Port)
Adelaide (GWS)
Brisbane (Gold Coast)
Hawthorn (West Coast)
Richmond (Geelong)
North Melbourne (Sydney)
DRAW (Bulldogs - Melbourne)

Walk away now, or read on as to why Richmond at $5.50 has been picked over Geelong...

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So-  Ive been tracking the supercoach value of a team versus their opponent, with the novel idea that the higher the % value of the team, the more likely the win.  I was right.  Out of the 27 games so far this year, the higher value team has won 23 times.  That would have meant, Freo and NM would have been tipped to beat Geelong, and the only "true" upsets this year have been: Bris over Melb, Port over Saints, Cats over Hawks &amp; the Blues against the Pies.  See the correlation below (which ignores GWS due to irrelevant current value):

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC-Team.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5827" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/SC-Team.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

And whilst the correlation is far from perfect, we can measure the error rate:

<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Error.bmp"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5828" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Error.bmp" alt="" />[/url]

What does this all mean?

It means that when the prediction is for Carlton to win by 12 points, 50% of the time, this will be correct within 23 points...i.e. 50% chance of Ess by 11 through to Carl by 35.  This becomes very useful when comparing against the line...and in this instance, the line for Carlton is at 40 points...which I would take Essendon +40 given the likelihood is 80% versus odds at 50% (or thereabouts).

Anyway, rather than go through the whole thing - shoot some questions through and lets discuss.

Bets bets for the week are:

1. Richmond over Geelong @ $5.50 with a 67% chance
2. Fremantle + 19.5 @ $1.90 with an 85% chance
3. Essendon + 39.5 @ 1.90 with an 80% chance

Good luck!