Hi all - not a lot on offer this week, with the betting agencies lines falling very much in line with mine.  Predicted wins for this week, and margins:

Hawks by 30
Cats by 15
Tigers by 9
Pies by 23
Bombers by 14
Roos by 17
Dockers by 28
Blues by 18

Only the Friday night game offers any real odds, with Hawks at 55 points +, giving an 80% chance of Melbourne + 55 coming in.  Ive picked the Kangaroos line exactly, whilst all other only have room of 7 - 8 points, which only equates to a 62% chance... throw some comments in as the game gets underway, and further analysis is added...

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AFL-Margin-Error2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6103" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AFL-Margin-Error2.jpg" alt="" width="1908" height="736" />[/url]<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AFL-Margin-Error.jpg">
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Games included above are the 48 non GWS games that have occurred this year.  The blue line is the actual margin, the red line is the prediction, and the green line is the error.  To sum it up:
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<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 16 are exact



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 12 are within 1 point



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 6 are within 2 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 5 are within 4 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 4 are within 7 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 3 are within 13 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 2 are witin 22 points




Each week there have been 1 or 2 very accurate results, which means if you like any of the above options, then 26/1 odds aint bad given theres not a lot of offer on the line this week:

Week 1: 1 game correct within 1 point, another within 2 points

Week 2: 3 games correct within 2 points

Week 3: 1 game exactly, another within 4 points

Week 4: 1 game exactly

Week 5: 1 game exactly, another within 3 points

Week 6: 1 game within 2 points

Overall results for the year so far are shown on the graph below:

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/overall.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6105" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/overall.jpg" alt="" width="978" height="639" />[/url]

The x axis is the SC value of the teamcompared to the total value on the ground.  The blue dots are the results, and the line is the trend using the least squares method.