TS Best Buys?  Nope, you read it correctly: TS Best Bets is a new addition to the TS Community that will feature the best offerings in the market for AFL based wagers each week.  Many of you out there like to put a lazy $20 on the nose or in a 5 leg multi each week, and this post is designed to help you with your selections.

The m-far-sis will be on statistics, taking out the bias and personal opinion as much as possible, and promote discussion on where the best value can be found.  Given there is only one game this weekend, and the result is already guaranteed (or is it???), this first edition will focus on many of the season-long bets that are on offer: who will be premiers?, make the top 4?, the wooden spoon - and of course the individual medals and this weeks game are there too.

See you over the break!

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2012 Premiership Winner

Past 5 winners:

2011 - Geelong
2010 - Collingwood
2009 - Geelong
2008 - Hawthorn
2007 - Geelong

To win a premiership - you have to be strong in all areas of the ground.  Geelong have been able to take out 3 of the last 5 cups with the only deficiency being an elite tall forward, yet their goal-kicking midfielders and plethora of elite small forwards was about to counter this.  Collingwood have been strong in all parts of the ground over the last 2 years, whilst the Hawks poor ruck division is a key factor in them only making 1 GF throughout this period.

The captains have rated Hawthorn and West Coast the most likely teams to make the grand final, yet the agencies still see it as a three horse race between the 3 teams who have shared the cup over the last 5 years.  For the Pies ($3.50), they have the downside of a new coach - although Geelong have proved that this isnt necessarily a downfall after taking home the cup in Chris Scotts first year.  The Pies also won the flag in the year before last (as Geelong did in 2009), yet they didnt have to lose their number 1 player (again - this has to be an upside).  Throw in the natural progression of Pendlebury, Thomas, Cloke, Beams &amp; Sidebottom, and all of a sudden $3.50 looks fairly appetising...

The Hawks &amp; the Cats then come in at $4.50.  The Cats most notable absentees are Ottens and Ling, and now go in to 2012 without a strong ruck division or an elite tall forward.  One of these areas will need to improve greatly for the Cats to have a chance at back-to-back flags, therefore the hopes lay fairly &amp; squarly on Tom Hawkins shoulders.  If he can step up and do what Cloke has done over the last two years, the Cats will be as strong as any.  And if he was going to do that, wed have him in our SC side.  But we dont, do we.  The Hawks will go in to battle again without a premier ruckman, yet this is their only downfall.  Franklin looks like hell set the competition on fire in 2012, and if he kicks > 100 goals as he did when they one the flag, well theyll be a very good chance yet again.

As for the rest, the Blues ($9) are still too weak up forward, the Saints ($15) are a bit of an unknown in terms of what game style they will bring under a new coach, but still lack overall depth outside their big 6, whilst West Coast ($15) forwards have been massacred by injury.

Best Bet: $50 on Collingwood at 3.5 and $40 on the Hawks at 4.5 will return $190 from a $90 outlay.  Not big returns, but fairly solid chances.

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The Top 4

Given 3 of the top 4 spots seem to already be sewn up, which teams have the best opportunity to take that 4th spot?  No doubting the Blues and Saints are a chance, but present little value.  The teams from the wild west are worth a closer look: West Coast finished comfortably 4th in the end last year, yet due to their forward line have blown out to 6th favourite at $3.  Good odds if they can keep some decent forwards on the park.  But Fremantle are the clear choice here for value.  Paying $5, and under new coach Ross Lyon, a real possibility.  The key to Fremantles year is keeping the Sandiman fit and firing.  Their win rate from 2010 - Rd 9 2011 with Sandilands playing was 2 in 3, or 14.5 games in a year.  Throw in Barlow, Mundy and Fyfe all playing at the one time (which has only happened 10 times in the last 2 years) and Ross Lyon has the cattle for a top 4 finish.

Best Bet: $20 on Fremantle at $5 for $100 collect

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Wooden Spoon

Past 5 winners (losers?):

2011: Gold Coast
2010: West Coast
2009: Melbourne
2008: Melbourne
2007: Richmond

Should I simply state GWS and move on? Yes.

Best bet: $10,000 on GWS @ 1.15 for $11,500 collect (is it too late to mention responsible gambling?)

In all serious GCS, almost avoided the wooden spoon in there first year, yet the Giants dont have the little master on their side.  But if you look back further, all of Port Adelaide, Fremantle &amp; Adelaide, being the 3 most recent sides added to the AFL, all comfortably avoided the spoon in their first years.  By weighting bets on GCS ($9), PTA ($13), and Brisbane ($51) - you can get a return of $5 across your outlay...not too shabby, though you still need GWS to finish ahead of one of them.  Best bet?  Avoid.

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Brownlow

Past 5 winners

2011 - Dane Swan
2010 - Chris Judd
2009 - Gary Ablett
2008 - Adam Cooney
2007 - Jimmy Bartel

How the pendulum can swing.  Swan clear favourite in 2010, Judd takes it home by 4 votes to Ablett - and Judd becomes favourite for 2011 (based on history, Pendlebury favourite on form).  Swan takes home by 6 votes to Dal Santo...2012??  With so many to talk to, Im going to focus on a select few.

Swan @ $7 should have the pendulum swing away from him after the most votes polled in a season in the history of the 3-2-1 system.
Judd @ $8 now hast the 4th most votes of all time.  17 more will see him overtake Leigh Matthews and into 3rd, and hes still only 28 years of age.  The rise of Murphy and Gibbs, along with the interrupted pre-season doesnt bode him well
Mitchell @ $9 30 votes last year, but ineligible.  Hodge and Franklin just dont take votes off him, if he plays well, he will poll.  No room for improvement, but at 30 votes, he doesnt need to improve, he just needs to stay eligible.
Pendlebury @ $9 has polled > 20 votes in each of the last two years, should pick up more votes from Swan than last year, and should improve with age...very solid choice
Ablett @ $11 picked up 23 votes last year in a wooden spoon, and 20 of those came from rd 8 onwards where he was involved in 1 win!  Few more wins and better early season form, and 30 votes isnt out of the question
Selwood @ 13 has the second highest vote/game ratio in the league behind Judd.  Is now the captain, but has only polled over 20 votes once... will need a big year

Best Bet: Of the 6 favourites, Pendlebury and Ablett are the clear choices, and present the least amount of risk.  $20 on each.

As far as smokys go, what does one think of A. Sandilands @ $50?  Was leading comfortably in 2010 before Juddy stormed home, and played injured last year whilst other ruckmans SC average jumped 25%.  If he can reach and maintain full fitness early, he provides some sneaky value at $50.

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Coleman

Past 5 winners

2011 - Franklin
2010 - J Riewoldt
2009 - Fevola
2008 - Franklin
2007 - Brown

Injury or significant time suspended is likely the only thing to hold Franklin from his 3rd Coleman in 5 years.  Paying $2.50, we have to look elsewhere for value.  Jack Riewoldt ($7) and Travis Cloke ($11) are the two other main contenders.  Riewoldt managed 62 goals playing injured last year, and took it out the year before playing at the true full forward position.  The best hope for Riewoldt would be full fitness, and Franklin being required to move around the ground a bit.  $7 has enough meat in it to have a crack.

Best Bet: $100 on J Riewoldt for $700 return, and $70 on Franklin to cover the bet.

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Sydney v GWS

We touched on GWS earlier, and noted that whilst Gold Coast managed 3 wins last year, the three teams that entered the AFL most recently prior to this all faired a lot better.  In fact, the Camry Crows beat Hawthorn by 10 goals in their first ever game.

But we are really talking apples and eggs here.  The Crows team of that year already had an average age of 24-25, with the majority being mature picks from other established leagues.  GWS is made up of babies and grandparents, and next to no one in between.  The closest comparable team remains GCs first outing against the Blues last year, where they were smashed by 20 goals.  Swans are at 1.02, so we have to look a little deeper.  The line is at 91 points, still I favour the Swans here.

Best Bet: Swans -90.5 points &amp; total score under 205.5 point double paying $4.

So there you have it.  As the year progresses, well get better data around the correlation between SC values of a team in given week versus result, etc, and try to build a machine to predict the future!  You dont have to get it right everytime, you just have to be right more often than the bookmakers are

And of course, Gamble Responsibly!