As this years race for supercoach glory is now down to a handful of coaches, so too is the race for this years brownlow medal. Â This week, lets have a detailed look at the 5 main chances, how they have gone to date, and what their run home looks like.
A couple of past winners, a pair of the new elite midfielders, and a rookie-listed player come captain make up the five. Â That, along with this weeks votes and leaderboards over the page.
<!--more-->1. Chris Judd (CAR) - vote range 16-26 - combined tally (TS/Holey) 21
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 6, 10, 12 & 15
Last 3 years count (10-09-08): 30(w) - 22 - 16
Current Odds: $3/$1.50
Favourite for a reason. Â The two time winner has had another stellar season to back up last years win - which was his second. Â Very consistent start to the year, and has continued to pull out some big performances between some mediocre ones through the middle of the season. Â Has an amazing polling rate of 1.9 votes per combined 200+ SC/DT score, and has achieved that feat no less than 11 times this season. Â Whilst he has more competition within his own ranks to pull votes, Carlton are winning more games - not that that has affected him getting votes in the past. Â Only downside is that over the last 3 years, only one player has polled well in the following year (Bartel 10 votes in 08, Cooney 3 votes in 09, Ablett with 26 votes last year).
2. Matthew Boyd (WBD) - vote range 19-22 - combined tally 20.5
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 3, 5 & 12
Last 3 years count: 20 - 14 - 12
Current Odds: $15/$4.50
Having his best year to date, after polling a career best 20 votes last year. Â Big purple patch in the first half of the year, averaging 125 SuperCoach points between rounds 2 & 12. Â Unfortunately the Bulldogs only won 3 games through this period, and now that they are back to their winning ways, his form has dropped slightly. Â Polls 1.3 votes per +200 SC/DT game, which is the best rate in his team. Â Bulldogs will need to continue winning, and Boyd will need to find his early season form to take it out.
3. Scott Pendlebury (COL) - vote range 16-24 - combined tally 20
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 2, 5 & 11
Last 3 years count: 21 - 13 - 7
Current Odds: $9/$3
A stellar year, averaging more SuperCoach points than any other player @ 129 - 7 more than the next best. Â Is the best midfielder in the number 1 team, who youd think will win all but 1 game at a minimum from here. Â Very good 3 vote poller, and has now added consistency to him game. Â Big competition from Swan and Didak last year, but still managed 21 votes. Â Swan is certainly down on last years form - as is Didak (in a big way) - but the emergence of Thomas as an elite midfielder is the only new threat. Â Thomas has previously been a very poor poller (just 4 votes in the last 3 years), but has taken a massive step up in 2011. Â Scott on the other hand is a proven poller, and like the two mentioned above, his average of 1.3 votes per +200 SC/DT game is the highest in his team.
4. Gary Ablett (GCS) - vote range 17-19 - combined tally 18
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 8, 15, 17
Last 3 years count: 26 - 30(w) - 22
Current Odds: $14/$4.25
As Ive stated earlier - this biggest unknown quantity on Brownlow night will be Gazzas tally. Â Proven poller in the past, but now in a team at the other end of the ladder. Â Amazingly good form through rounds 8-15, averaging 150 SuperCoach points. Â Wow. Â The Gold Coast however didnt win one game through this period. Â A very big chance if his mid-season form can continue, and the Suns string 2-3 games together in the last 7 rounds. Â Worth noting he polled 8 votes (including one 3) in 9 losing games in the last three years at the Cattery. Â Polling rate of 1.6 votes per +200 SC/DT game is one of the best in the league.
5. Marc Murphy (CAR) - vote range 14-20 - combined tally 17
Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 2, 5 (although I havent given him any to date)
Last 3 years count: 5 - 15 - 11
Current Odds: $5.50/$2.125
Murph has gone from a consistently good player to a consistently very good player in 2011. Â Only 2 games has he had a combined SC/DT of under 200 points - and he has played every game. Â His polling graph took a turn for the worst in 2010, picking up just 5 votes, but prior to that didnt do to badly. Â His other main hurdle is obviously the man at the top of this table. Â Interesting to see two players from the one team being the two favourites, however they are 4th on the table. Â Leading a number of media awards this year.
* Sam Mitchell would currently have been in fourth place had he not been ineligible.
These are my top 5, with the next few just outside this list containing Swan, Priddis, S Thompson and Goodes. Â Now, to this weeks votes:
[span style="text-decoration: underline">Essendon v Adelaide
TS:
3 - A. Monfries (3)
2 - S. Thompson (12)
1 - D. Zaharakis (6)
Holey:
3 - A. Monfries (4)
2 - S. Thompson (16)
1 - D. Zaharakis (6)
[span style="text-decoration: underline">Gold Coast v Richmond
TS:
3 - G. Ablett (17)
2 - C. Newman (2)
1 - S. Iles (1)
Holey:
3 - G. Ablett (19)
2 - N. Bock (2)
1 - B. Houli (2)
[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Carlton
TS:
3 - D. Thomas (15)
2 - S. Pendlebury (20)
1 - C. Judd (21)
Holey:
3 - S. Pendlebury (20
2 - C. Judd (21)
1 - D. Thomas (9)
[span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda v West Coast
TS:
3 - L. Montagna (9)
2 - D. Cox (14)
1 - B. Goddard (7)
Holey:
3 - L. Montagna (9)
2 - D. Cox (9)
1 - B. Goddard (7)
[span style="text-decoration: underline">Melbourne v Port Adelaide
TS:
3 - R. Petterd (3)
2 - C. Sylvia (5)
1 - S. Martin (3)
Holey:
3 - R. Petterd (3)
2 - C. Sylvia (5)
1 - S. Martin (5)
[span style="text-decoration: underline">Fremantle v Sydney
TS:
3 - N. Fyfe (14)
2 - N. Lower (4)
1 - G. Broughton (4)
Holey:
3 - N. Fyfe (12)
2 - N. Lower (5)
1 - G. Broughton (4)
[span style="text-decoration: underline">Geelong v Brisbane
TS:
3 - J. Podsiadly (6)
2 - J. Bartel (10)
1 - T. Rockliff (8)
Holey:
3 - J. Podsiadly (9)
2 - J. Bartel (8)
1 - A. Christensen (1)
[span style="text-decoration: underline">North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
TS:
3 - J. Ziebell (4)
2 - D. Petrie (7)
1 - D. Wells (11)
Holey:
3 - D. Petrie (10)
2 - J. Ziebell (4)
1 - D. Wells (6)
LEADERBOARDS:
TS:
21 - C. Judd
20 - M. Boyd, S. Pendlebury
19 - S. Mitchell*
18 - M. Murphy
17 - G. Ablett
16 - B. Moloney*
15 - M. Priddis, D. Thomas
14 - J. Selwood*, D. Swan, R. OKeefe, J. Watson, N. Fyfe, L. Hodge, D. Cox
Holey:
21 - C. Judd, M. Boyd
20 - S. Pendlebury, S. Mitchell*
19 - G. Ablett
17 - J. Selwood*
16 - M. Murphy, S. Thompson
15 - D. Swan, A. Goodes
14 - M. Priddis
TS Brownlow Predictions - Round 17
Discussion in 'Blog' started by tones77, Jul 19, 2011.
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Discussion in 'Blog' started by tones77, Jul 19, 2011.