TS Brownlow Predictions - Round 17

Discussion in 'Blog' started by tones77, Jul 19, 2011.

By tones77 on Jul 19, 2011 at 10:00 AM
  1. tones77

    tones77 New Member

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    As this years race for supercoach glory is now down to a handful of coaches, so too is the race for this years brownlow medal.  This week, lets have a detailed look at the 5 main chances, how they have gone to date, and what their run home looks like.

    A couple of past winners, a pair of the new elite midfielders, and a rookie-listed player come captain make up the five.  That, along with this weeks votes and leaderboards over the page.

    <!--more-->1. Chris Judd (CAR) - vote range 16-26 - combined tally (TS/Holey) 21
    Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 6, 10, 12 &amp; 15
    Last 3 years count (10-09-08): 30(w) - 22 - 16
    Current Odds: $3/$1.50

    Favourite for a reason.  The two time winner has had another stellar season to back up last years win - which was his second.  Very consistent start to the year, and has continued to pull out some big performances between some mediocre ones through the middle of the season.  Has an amazing polling rate of 1.9 votes per combined 200+ SC/DT score, and has achieved that feat no less than 11 times this season.  Whilst he has more competition within his own ranks to pull votes, Carlton are winning more games - not that that has affected him getting votes in the past.  Only downside is that over the last 3 years, only one player has polled well in the following year (Bartel 10 votes in 08, Cooney 3 votes in 09, Ablett with 26 votes last year).

    2. Matthew Boyd (WBD) - vote range 19-22 - combined tally 20.5
    Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 3, 5 &amp; 12
    Last 3 years count: 20 - 14 - 12
    Current Odds: $15/$4.50

    Having his best year to date, after polling a career best 20 votes last year.  Big purple patch in the first half of the year, averaging 125 SuperCoach points between rounds 2 &amp; 12.  Unfortunately the Bulldogs only won 3 games through this period, and now that they are back to their winning ways, his form has dropped slightly.  Polls 1.3 votes per +200 SC/DT game, which is the best rate in his team.  Bulldogs will need to continue winning, and Boyd will need to find his early season form to take it out.

    3. Scott Pendlebury (COL) - vote range 16-24 - combined tally 20
    Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 2, 5 &amp; 11
    Last 3 years count: 21 - 13 - 7
    Current Odds: $9/$3

    A stellar year, averaging more SuperCoach points than any other player @ 129 - 7 more than the next best.  Is the best midfielder in the number 1 team, who youd think will win all but 1 game at a minimum from here.  Very good 3 vote poller, and has now added consistency to him game.  Big competition from Swan and Didak last year, but still managed 21 votes.  Swan is certainly down on last years form - as is Didak (in a big way) - but the emergence of Thomas as an elite midfielder is the only new threat.  Thomas has previously been a very poor poller (just 4 votes in the last 3 years), but has taken a massive step up in 2011.   Scott on the other hand is a proven poller, and like the two mentioned above, his average of 1.3 votes per +200 SC/DT game is the highest in his team.

    4. Gary Ablett (GCS) - vote range 17-19 - combined tally 18
    Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 8, 15, 17
    Last 3 years count: 26 - 30(w) - 22
    Current Odds: $14/$4.25

    As Ive stated earlier - this biggest unknown quantity on Brownlow night will be Gazzas tally.  Proven poller in the past, but now in a team at the other end of the ladder.  Amazingly good form through rounds 8-15, averaging 150 SuperCoach points.  Wow.  The Gold Coast however didnt win one game through this period.  A very big chance if his mid-season form can continue, and the Suns string 2-3 games together in the last 7 rounds.  Worth noting he polled 8 votes (including one 3) in 9 losing games in the last three years at the Cattery.  Polling rate of 1.6 votes per +200 SC/DT game is one of the best in the league.

    5. Marc Murphy (CAR) - vote range 14-20 - combined tally 17
    Best 3 vote chances: Rounds 2, 5 (although I havent given him any to date)
    Last 3 years count: 5 - 15 - 11
    Current Odds: $5.50/$2.125

    Murph has gone from a consistently good player to a consistently very good player in 2011.  Only 2 games has he had a combined SC/DT of under 200 points - and he has played every game.  His polling graph took a turn for the worst in 2010, picking up just 5 votes, but prior to that didnt do to badly.  His other main hurdle is obviously the man at the top of this table.  Interesting to see two players from the one team being the two favourites, however they are 4th on the table.  Leading a number of media awards this year.

    * Sam Mitchell would currently have been in fourth place had he not been ineligible.

    These are my top 5, with the next few just outside this list containing Swan, Priddis, S Thompson and Goodes.  Now, to this weeks votes:

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Essendon v Adelaide

    TS:
    3 - A. Monfries (3)
    2 - S. Thompson (12)
    1 - D. Zaharakis (6)

    Holey:
    3 - A. Monfries (4)
    2 - S. Thompson (16)
    1 - D. Zaharakis (6)

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Gold Coast v Richmond

    TS:
    3 - G. Ablett (17)
    2 - C. Newman (2)
    1 - S. Iles (1)

    Holey:
    3 - G. Ablett (19)
    2 - N. Bock (2)
    1 - B. Houli (2)

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Carlton

    TS:
    3 - D. Thomas (15)
    2 - S. Pendlebury (20)
    1 - C. Judd (21)

    Holey:
    3 - S. Pendlebury (20
    2 - C. Judd (21)
    1 - D. Thomas (9)

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda v West Coast

    TS:
    3 - L. Montagna (9)
    2 - D. Cox (14)
    1 - B. Goddard (7)

    Holey:
    3 - L. Montagna (9)
    2 - D. Cox (9)
    1 - B. Goddard (7)

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Melbourne v Port Adelaide

    TS:
    3 - R. Petterd (3)
    2 - C. Sylvia (5)
    1 - S. Martin (3)

    Holey:
    3 - R. Petterd (3)
    2 - C. Sylvia (5)
    1 - S. Martin (5)

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Fremantle v Sydney

    TS:
    3 - N. Fyfe (14)
    2 - N. Lower (4)
    1 - G. Broughton (4)

    Holey:
    3 - N. Fyfe (12)
    2 - N. Lower (5)
    1 - G. Broughton (4)

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Geelong v Brisbane

    TS:
    3 - J. Podsiadly (6)
    2 - J. Bartel (10)
    1 - T. Rockliff (8)

    Holey:
    3 - J. Podsiadly (9)
    2 - J. Bartel (8)
    1 - A. Christensen (1)

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

    TS:
    3 - J. Ziebell (4)
    2 - D. Petrie (7)
    1 - D. Wells (11)

    Holey:
    3 - D. Petrie (10)
    2 - J. Ziebell (4)
    1 - D. Wells (6)

    LEADERBOARDS:

    TS:
    21 - C. Judd
    20 - M. Boyd, S. Pendlebury
    19 - S. Mitchell*
    18 - M. Murphy
    17 - G. Ablett
    16 - B. Moloney*
    15 - M. Priddis, D. Thomas
    14 - J. Selwood*, D. Swan, R. OKeefe, J. Watson, N. Fyfe, L. Hodge, D. Cox

    Holey:
    21 - C. Judd, M. Boyd
    20 - S. Pendlebury, S. Mitchell*
    19 - G. Ablett
    17 - J. Selwood*
    16 - M. Murphy, S. Thompson
    15 - D. Swan, A. Goodes
    14 - M. Priddis
     

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Discussion in 'Blog' started by tones77, Jul 19, 2011.

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