So it would seem Chris Judd has all but wrapped up his third Brownlow.  Thats what Sportsbet would have you believe anyway, paying out $300k to punters 4 weeks early...or 3 weeks for Judd considering the round 23 bye.

Which is the beginning of my argument for the negative:

I have Judd on 27, and Pendles on 26.  Ignoring the ineligibles (Mitchell 27*, Selwood 22*), next best is an over-inflated Boyd on 23, Ablett & Goodes on 21, then back to the trio of Dal Santo, Swan & Thompson on 19.  So yes, Pendlebury the only real threat - but surely more than an insignificant one that would lead you to pay out 4 weeks early.

Then theres the risk of being reported.  Just rubbish.

Pendlebury picked up 21 votes last year (111 SuperCoach avg), playing relatively second fiddle to Swan (127 SuperCoach avg) who managed 24.  This year, Pendles has jumped up to a 130 SuperCoach avg, and Swan has fallen to 121 - totaling a 28 point turnaround between them, or 12% difference combined.  My vote tally is reflective of this, with Pendlebury @ 26 and Swan back on 19.

To add to that, the reverse has happened (to a lesser extent) at the Blues.  Whilst Judd has held on to his 119 point average from last year, Marc Murphy has risen to the same level from 112.

The argument that Judd polls regardless of output holds some truth - but my votes already have this taken into account...which is why Murphy is leading the AFL Coaches Votes Award (amongst others), but finds himself back on 17 on my count.

So after all this, Judd does have the lead - but it is a slender one.  I hope Pendles can have a couple of big games in the next 4 weeks to make it just that little bit more interesting...

<!--more-->[span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda v Fremantle

TS:
3 - N. Dal Santo (20)
2 - T. Mzungu (2)
1 - C. Jones (1)

Holey:
3 - N. Dal Santo (19)
2 - T. Mzungu (2)
1 - J. Koschitzke (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Geelong v Gold Coast

TS:
3 - S. Johnson (12)
2 - J. Selwood (20)
1 - P. Chapman (9)

Holey:
3 - J. Selwood (22)
2 - S. Johnson (15)
1 - J. Podsiadly (10)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Carlton v Melbourne

TS:
3 - C. Judd (27)
2 - H. Scotland (7)
1 - B. Gibbs (13)

Holey:
3 - C. Judd (27)
2 - H. Scotland (5)
1 - B. Gibbs (13)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Essendon v Sydney

TS:
3 - A. Goodes (18)
2 - J. Watson (16)
1 - D. Hannebery (2)

Holey:
3 - A. Goodes (21)
2 - J. Watson (14)
1 - P. Ryder (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Port Adelaide

TS:
3 - D. Beams (3)
2 - D. Swan (19)
1 - J. Blair (4)

Holey:
3 - D. Beams (3)
2 - D. Swan (19)
1 - J. Blair (4)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Adelaide v Brisbane

TS:
3 - S. Thompson (15)
2 - T. Rockliff (10)
1 - N. Van Berlo (3)

Holey:
3 - S. Thompson (19)
2 - N. Van Berlo (3)
1 - S. Jacobs (3)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Hawthorn v North Melbourne

TS:
3 - S. Mitchell (27)
2 - S. McMahon (2)
1 - B. Sewell (7)

Holey:
3 - S. Mitchell (27)
2 - S. McMahon (2)
1 - J. Ziebell (5)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">West Coast v Richmond

TS:
3 - N. Naitanui (5)
2 - L. Shuey (8)
1 - D. Kerr (8)

Holey:
3 - L. Shuey (7)
2 - D. Kerr (4)
1 - N. Naitanui (3)

LEADERBOARDS

TS:
27 - C. Judd
25 - S. Pendlebury
24 - S. Mitchell*
22 - M. Boyd
20 - J. Selwood*, G. Ablett, N. Dal Santo, D. Cox
19 - D. Swan, M. Murphy

Holey:
27 - C. Judd, S. Mitchell*
26 - S. Pendlebury
23 - M. Boyd
22 - J. Selwood*
21 - G. Ablett, A. Goodes
19 - N. Dal Santo, D. Swan, S. Thompson

TEAMS

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Adelaide
TS: 15 - S Thompson, 5 - B. Vince, 4 - P. Dangerfield
Holey: 19 - S. Thompson, 5 - B. Vince, 3 - S. Jacobs, N. Van Berlo, J. Petrenko

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Brisbane
TS: 10 - T. Rockliff, 8 - S. Black, 5 - J. Adcock
Holey: 10 - S. Black, 5 - L. Power, 3 - J. Brown

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Carlton
TS: 27 - C. Judd, 19 - M. Murphy, 13 - B. Gibbs
Holey: 27 - C. Judd, 17 - M. Murphy, 13 - B. Gibbs

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood
TS: 25 - S. Pendlebury, 19 - D. Swan, 15 - D. Thomas
Holey: 26 - S. Peendlebury, 19 - D. Swan, 9 - D. Thomas

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Essendon
TS: 16 - J. Watson, 6 - D. Zaharakis, 4 - B. Stanton
Holey: 14 - J. Watson, 6 - D. Zaharakis, 5 - B. Stanton

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Fremantle
TS: 14 - N. Fyfe, 13 - M. Pavlich, 5 - G. Broughton
Holey: 12 - N. Fyfe, M. Pavlich, 7 - A. Sandilands

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Gold Coast
TS: 20 - G. Ablett, 4 - M. Rischitelli, 3 - J. Brennan
Holey: 21 - G. Ablett, 3 - M. Rischitelli, J. Brennan

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Geelong
TS: 20 - J. Selwood, 12 - S. Johnson, 10 - J. Bartel
Holey: 22 - J. Selwood, 15 - S. Johnson, 11 - C. Ling

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Hawthorn
TS: 24 - S. Mitchell, 15 - L. Franklin, L. Hodge
Holey: 27 - S. Mitchell, 15 - L. Franklin, 9 - L. Hodge

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Melbourne
TS: 16 - B. Moloney, 5 - C. Sylvia, 3 - S. Martin, R. Petterd, J. Trengove
Holey: 13 - B. Moloney, 5 - C. Sylvia, S. Martin

[span style="text-decoration: underline">North Melbourne
TS: 11 - A. Swallow, D. Wells, 9 - T. Goldstein
Holey: 12 - T. Goldstein, 11 - A. Swallow, D. Petrie

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Port Adelaide
TS: 3 - T. Boak, T. Chaplin, 2 - H. Hartlett, D. Rodan
Holey: 5 - H. Hartlett, 3 - T. Boak, J. Westhoff

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Richmond
TS: 11 - T. Cotchin, 10 - D. Martin, 6 - B. Deledio
Holey: 10 - D. Martin, 9 - T. Cotchin, 6 - R. Nahas

[span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda
TS: 20 - N. Dal Santo, 9 - L. Montagna, B. Goddard
Holey: 19 - N. Dal Santo,  9 - L. Montagna, 8 - B. Goddard

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Sydney
TS: 18 - A. Goodes, 14 - R. OKeefe, 12 - J. Bolton
Holey: 21 - A. Goodes, 13 - R. OKeefe, 6 - J. Bolton

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Western Bulldogs
TS: 22 - M. Boyd, 11 - R. Griffen, 4 - A. Cooney
Holey: 23 - M. Boyd, 12 - R. Griffen, 3 - A. Cooney, D. Giansiracusa

[span style="text-decoration: underline">West Coast
TS: 20 - D. Cox, 16 - M. Priddis, 8 - L. Shuey, D. Kerr
Holey: 15 - M. Priddis, 14 - D. Cox, 10 - M. LeCras

...and go
<div style="width: 1px;height: 1px;overflow: hidden">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="128"><col style="width: 48pt" span="2" width="64"></col>
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt;width: 48pt" width="64" height="20" align="right">27
<td style="width: 48pt" width="64">Judd


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">25
Pendlebury


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">24
Mitchell*


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">22
Boyd


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">20
Selwood*


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">20
Ablett


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">20
Dal Santo


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">20
Cox


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">19
Swan


<tr style="height: 15pt">
<td style="height: 15pt" height="20" align="right">19
Murphy