TS Brownlow Predictions - Round 23

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Chaffer77, Aug 30, 2011.

By Chaffer77 on Aug 30, 2011 at 10:00 AM
  1. Chaffer77

    Chaffer77 New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    One week to go.  This time next week, TAB will have released their odds for most team votes - and you will need to get in quick to jump on any bargains.

    Ive spent the last few days completing a review on the season as a whole, and have moved away from each players tally simply being the sum of their 3-2-1s.  Results are almost as expected.  With one round to play, Judd is a certainty for a top 2 finish.  Swan has moved into third favourite behind Pendlebury in most betting markets - and I couldnt agree more.  Top 20 broken down below, and then over the page for a detailed look at just who will get the most votes for each team (and as always - this weeks votes).
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="474">
    <tbody>

    <td width="122" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="52">Strong 3s
    <td width="62">Likely poll
    <td width="54">Chance Poll
    <td width="113">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Judd (CAR)
    7
    3
    4
    10 - 14
    29



    <td height="20">Pendlebury (COL)
    7
    2
    4
    9 - 13
    28



    <td height="20">Mitchell (HAW)
    5
    5
    2
    10 - 12
    27



    <td height="20">Swan (COL)
    3
    7
    2
    10 - 12
    26



    <td height="20">Boyd (WBD)
    5
    4
    2
    9 - 11
    24



    <td height="20">Ablett (GCS)
    2
    6
    4
    8 - 12
    22



    <td height="20">Goodes (SYD)
    3
    5
    1
    8 - 9
    22



    <td height="20">S Thompson (ADE)
    3
    5
    2
    8 - 10
    21



    <td height="20">Selwood (GEE)
    4
    4
    1
    8 - 9
    21



    <td height="20">Dal Santo (STK)
    4
    3
    1
    7 - 8
    20



    <td height="20">Murphy (CAR)
    0
    8
    2
    8 - 10
    19



    <td height="20">Priddis (WCE)
    3
    2
    4
    5 - 9
    19



    <td height="20">Franklin (HAW)
    4
    3
    1
    7 - 8
    18



    <td height="20">Cox (WCE)
    2
    4
    2
    6 - 8
    16



    <td height="20">Watson (ESS)
    2
    4
    1
    6 - 7
    16



    <td height="20">Moloney (MEL)
    3
    3
    1
    6 - 7
    16



    <td height="20">Swallow (NM)
    2
    4
    2
    6 - 8
    15



    <td height="20">Johnson (GEE)
    2
    2
    3
    4 - 7
    14



    <td height="20">Cotchin (RIC)
    2
    4
    1
    6 - 7
    13



    <td height="20">OKeefe (SYD)
    2
    3
    1
    5 - 6
    13




    <img src="../wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif" alt="" />

    <!--more-->Im not going to go into detail of the 10 locks.  In order, ranging from 100% to 95% likely are as follows: Ablett, S. Thompson, Boyd, Judd, Mitchell, Goodes, Dal Santo, Watson, Moloney &amp; Selwood.  Goodes &amp; Dal Santo 8-9 votes ahead.  Essendon has the week off, whilst Moloney is 7-8 ahead of Sylvia who of course isnt playing this week.  If Stevie J goes big against Collingwood, we can look at that closer (although both are already in the top 20 above).  Team will be posted in order of most to least confidence:

    Brisbane:
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="431"><col width="79"></col> <col span="3" width="53"></col> <col width="122"></col> <col width="71"></col>
    <tbody>

    <td width="79" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="53">Strong 3s
    <td width="53">Likely poll
    <td width="53">Chance Poll
    <td width="122">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Black
    3
    2
    0
    5
    12



    <td height="20">Rockliff
    0
    1
    4
    1 - 5
    6




    Black close to a lock, but the closeness of the TS count has caused me to delve deeper.  Would be very surprised to see Rocklobster get up, but as a precaution I wouldnt have Black in every single multi.

    North Melbourne:
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="431"><col width="79"></col> <col span="3" width="53"></col> <col width="122"></col> <col width="71"></col>
    <tbody>

    <td width="79" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="53">Strong 3s
    <td width="53">Likely poll
    <td width="53">Chance Poll
    <td width="122">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Swallow
    2
    4
    2
    6 - 8
    15



    <td height="20">Petrie
    1
    2
    3
    3 - 6
    10



    <td height="20">Goldstein
    1
    3
    1
    4 - 5
    10




    Swallow has been short priced favourite all year, however has only pulled away from the pack in the last 2 weeks.  Goldstein has dropped 2 votes on the season-as-a-whole count, suring up Swallow further.  Wells a couple further back again... similar to Black, include in most multis but not all.

    West Coast:
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="431"><col width="79"></col> <col span="3" width="53"></col> <col width="122"></col> <col width="71"></col>
    <tbody>

    <td width="79" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="53">Strong 3s
    <td width="53">Likely poll
    <td width="53">Chance Poll
    <td width="122">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Priddis
    3
    2
    4
    5 - 9
    19



    <td height="20">Cox
    2
    4
    2
    6 - 8
    16




    Cox has had his best season to date, in a career nothing short of stellar.  Has never polled more than 12 votes - and 16 seems to verify this.  Odds not currently available, however Priddis should still be in the low 2s which is great value.

    Richmond:
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="431"><col width="79"></col> <col span="3" width="53"></col> <col width="122"></col> <col width="71"></col>
    <tbody>

    <td width="79" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="53">Strong 3s
    <td width="53">Likely poll
    <td width="53">Chance Poll
    <td width="122">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Cotchin
    2
    4
    1
    6 - 7
    13



    <td height="20">Martin
    3
    0
    3
    3 - 6
    11




    Similar to Swallow, Cotchin has pulled slightly ahead of his main rival Martin over the last few weeks.  Close enough for Martin to change the landscape in one week, Cotchin otherwise the favourite somewhere around $2.

    Collingwood:
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="431"><col width="79"></col> <col span="3" width="53"></col> <col width="122"></col> <col width="71"></col>
    <tbody>

    <td width="79" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="53">Strong 3s
    <td width="53">Likely poll
    <td width="53">Chance Poll
    <td width="122">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Pendlebury
    7
    2
    4
    9 - 13
    28



    <td height="20">Swan
    3
    7
    2
    10 - 12
    26




    Similar amount of quality games from these two stars, however the system seems to have followed history and reduced Swans likely 3s count to just 3.  Remembering last year, he polled in 13 games, yet just the 2 best ons.  I would include Pendlebury @ $1.80, but again, not in every multi.

    Fremantle:
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="431"><col width="79"></col> <col span="3" width="53"></col> <col width="122"></col> <col width="71"></col>
    <tbody>

    <td width="79" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="53">Strong 3s
    <td width="53">Likely poll
    <td width="53">Chance Poll
    <td width="122">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Fyfe
    1
    4
    1
    5 - 6
    13



    <td height="20">Pavlich
    2
    2
    2
    4 - 6
    12




    Both players now finished for the season, so this isnt going to change in the next week.  Feels like last year when the originally unknown Barlow was tipped against the historically well polling Sandilands.  Slight difference though - Fyfe did play last year, and polled in 3 games - and Pavlich whilst being an accomplished poller is not at the same level of Sandi.  Hopefully will be some value for the second year star.

    Port Adelaide:
    <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="431"><col width="79"></col> <col span="3" width="53"></col> <col width="122"></col> <col width="71"></col>
    <tbody>

    <td width="79" height="40">PLAYER
    <td width="53">Strong 3s
    <td width="53">Likely poll
    <td width="53">Chance Poll
    <td width="122">Potential Polling Games
    <td width="71">Overall Prediction



    <td height="20">Gray
    1
    0
    2
    1 - 3
    4



    <td height="20">Hartlett
    0
    1
    2
    1 - 3
    4



    <td height="20">Boak
    1
    0
    0
    1
    3



    <td height="20">Westhoff
    0
    1
    0
    1
    2



    <td height="20">Schulz
    0
    1
    0
    1
    2



    <td height="20">Chaplin
    0
    0
    1
    0 - 1
    2




    A real gamble here - Gray changing the landscape after his 6 goals against Essendon, although the fact the Bombers got up could still see either of Hartlett or Boak get home.  I will probably have a go at a couple here if the odds allow.

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Fremantle

    TS/Holey:
    3 - S. Pendlebury
    2 - D. Swan
    1 - D. Beams

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

    TS:
    3 - L. Hodge
    2 - P. Puopolo
    1 - L. Franklin

    Holey:
    3 - P. Puopolo
    2 - L. Franklin
    1 - L. Hodge

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Sydney v Geelong

    TS:
    3 - S. Mumford
    2 - A. Goodes
    1 - C. Ling

    Holey:
    3 - S. Mumford
    2 - A. Goodes
    1 - B. McGlynn

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda v North Melbourne

    TS:
    3 - B. Goddard
    2 - N. Riewoldt
    1 - A. Swallow

    Holey:
    3 - N. Riewoldt
    2 - B. Goddard
    1 - A. Swallow

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">West Coast v Brisbane

    TS:
    3 - C. Masten
    2 - T. Rockliff
    1 - M. Priddis

    Holey:
    3 - C. Masten
    2 - T. Rockliff
    1 - D. Rich

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Richmond v Adelaide

    TS:
    3 - T. Cotchin
    2 - N. Van Berlo
    1 - B. Vince

    Holey:
    3 - T. Cotchin
    2 - B. Vince
    1 - D. Martin

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Melbourne v Gold Coast


    TS:
    3 - C. Garland
    2 - M. Rischitelli
    1 - B. Moloney

    Holey:
    3 - C. Garland
    2 - B. Moloney
    1 - M. Rischitelli

    [span style="text-decoration: underline">Essendon v Port Adelaide

    TS:
    3 - R. Gray
    2 - A. Monfries
    1 - D. Hille

    Holey:
    3 - R. Gray
    2 - D. Hille
    1 - J. Watson
     

Comments

Discussion in 'Blog' started by Chaffer77, Aug 30, 2011.

Share This Page