Joel Selwood surges to the top of my brownlow count this week, after 3 weeks in a row unanimously being declared BOG.  Selwood was my initial pick for the medal this year, but after being concussed in the first quarter of the season, followed by missing the second game, that prediction was initially put to rest.

Since returning however, Joel has been in ripping form - averaging 124 SuperCoach points in his last 7 games, which have all been wins.

His favouritism early wasnt the Geelong bias coming through (well, maybe a little) - there was some science behind it:

- through 2008-2010 GAJ was the leading vote getter at the Cats, taking up 78 of the 314 votes collected (25%)
- in that time, Selwood was comfortably second with 56, an average of 19 per year (18% of overall & 24% of the non-Ablett vote)
- Bartel was well back on 32, followed by Chappy and Stevie J with 26 & 24 respectively

Even without natural improvement in his game, which youd expect from a 22 year old, his expected return increases to 24-25 just from Gaz travelling north.  We are seeing the results now, with him leading my count on 15 after 9 rounds, and equal second with Franklin and Boyd in the public count behind Watson.

Franklin looks to be in ripping form - almost 2008 form, where he picked up 20 votes to win the Hawthorn count.  His main competition usually comes from Mitchell & Sewell (Hodge is a very poor poller), with only Mitchell looking to challenge him at this point.

Watson has become the smoky again, with a few more weeks away from being able to add to his total.

Votes over the break:

<!--more-->[span style="text-decoration: underline">Geelong v Carlton

TS:
3 - J. Selwood (12)
2 - M. Murphy (10)
1 - H. Scotland (2)

Holey:
3 - J. Selwood (15)
2 - M. Murphy (8)
1 - H. Scotland (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">St Kilda v Melbourne

TS:
3 - L. Montagna (6)
2 - N. Riewoldt (2)
1 - B. Goddard (1)

Holey:
3 - L. Montagna (6)
2 - N. Riewoldt (2)
1 - B. Goddard (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Fremantle v Port Adelaide

TS:
3 - N. Fyfe (11)
2 - N. Lower (2)
1 - M. Pavlich (6)

Holey:
3 - N. Lower (3)
2 - R. Crowley (2)
1 - N. Fyfe (9)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Brisbane v North Melbourne

TS:
3 - J. Adcock (5)
2 - J. Brown (2)
1 - A. Swallow (3)

Holey:
3 - J. Brown (3)
2 - D. Petrie (4)
1 - J. Adcock (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Richmond v Essendon

TS:
3 - T. Cotchin (6)
2 - B. Deledio (6)
1 - D. Heppell (1)

Holey:
3 - T. Cotchin (4)
2 - B. Deledio (5)
1 - D. Heppell (1)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Collingwood v Adelaide

TS:
3 - D. Thomas (6)
2 - S. Pendlebury (9)
1 - S. Thompson (8)

Holey:
3 - D. Thomas (5)
2 - S. Thompson (11)
1 - S. Pendlebury (7)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Hawthorn v Sydney

TS:
3 - L. Franklin (12)
2 - G. Birchall (2)
1 - L. Hodge (5)

Holey:
3 - L. Franklin (12)
2 - G. Birchall (2)
1 - L. Shiels (3)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">West Coast v Western Bulldogs

TS:
3 - J. Kennedy (3)
2 - L. Shuey (4)
1 - D. Cox (8)

Holey:
3 - J. Kennedy (3)
2 - L. Shuey (4)
1 - D. Cox (7)

[span style="text-decoration: underline">TS Leaderboard
14 - J. Watson
12 - J. Selwood
12 - L. Franklin
12 - M. Boyd
11 - C. Judd
11 - N. Fyfe

[span style="text-decoration: underline">Holeys Leaderboard
15 - J. Selwood
12 - J. Watson
12 - L. Franklin
12 - M. Boyd
12 - A. Goodes
11 - S. Thompson

* correction to last weeks votes (Holeys tally) 3. D. Wells (4), 2. T. Goldstein (5)