<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]If you play in a keeper league, like I imagine anyone reading this is, it's a pertinent question; what is pick 15 in a yearly draft worth? How do you even quantify that?

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Head over the break and we explore what draft picks are worth in the long and short term.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]I've been mulling over this question of draft pick worth for muchof the preseason. On the one hand given that in the ORFFL we're cutting lists down to a maximum of 20, that pick is essentially a R21 pick. We all remember R21 in the original; Lachie Hansen, Liam Jones, Jayden Post were a sample of names called out.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]On the other hand though, where do Lance Franklin's come from?

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]This time last year the 18 ORFFL clubs drafted 42 first year players, picking them up on average in the 20th round. 15 GWS pre listed players (including 17yo's and Issy) and 18 players picked in the first 25 of the 2011 AFL ND.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]I bring up the first 25 players picked in the draft as when I began pondering the title question months ago there was a general consensus that there were roughly 25 rookies from the 2012 AFL draft worth picking. Further to that there was the contention that in any given year there was on average only 25 rookies worth picking up. How does this contention stand up though? How can it be tested?

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Being neither scientist nor scholar, but a curious fellow all the same, I decided to draw up some parameters for this overarching question. The year 2000 seemed a reasonable starting point for the 'modern age' of recruiting, 2007 a reasonable end point given the breakout of many of that years alumni last year. I defined success as a player having played &amp;gt;100 games (at least 5 years of solid service), or in the case of the draft years of 06-07 whether or not they were still on an AFL list as of 2013 (players such as Gumby and Morton were given .5 as it's hard to say they'll reach that 100 game mark).

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]So, looking at the drafts of 2000-2007, what was the success rate of the first 25 players drafted ? And further to that, what was the success rate of each player type in that top 25 on average?

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Key Position Defenders

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- 71.9% success rate.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Average of 2/25 picked each year.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Players drafted as KPF's often go on to become KPD's, but by the same token, many of these players have been earmarked to become KPD's by the time they're drafted.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Key Position Forwards

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- 50% success rate.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Average of 3.25/25 picked each year.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]General Defenders

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- 50% success rate

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Average of 2.25/25 picked each year.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]General Forwards

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- 42.31% success rate.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Average of 1.63/25 picked each year.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Midfielders

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- 66.3% success rate.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Average of 11.5/25 picked each year.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Utilities

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- 61% success rate.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Average of 1.13/25 picked each year.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- A hard position to classify, but includes the names McGrath, Brennan, Everitt, Wiggins.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Rucks

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- 47.6% success rate.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Average of 2.63/25 picked each year.

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]- Bears mentioning that the early part of the decade included some horrendous ruck selections in the top 25 (Barry Brooks, anyone?). You now see less rucks going in the top 25 and a greater success rate of those that do get picked.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]And just for good measure here is the success rate for each pick over that 8 year time frame.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]1. 100%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]2. 93.75%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]3. 100%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]4. 68.75%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]5. 81.25%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]6. 43.75%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]7. 75%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]8. 50%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]9. 50%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]10. 50%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]11. 50%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]12. 75%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]13. 100%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]14. 50%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]15. 56.25%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]16. 62.5%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]17. 31.25%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]18. 43.75%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]19. 62.5%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]20. 37.5%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]21. 37.5%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]22. 25%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]23. 50%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]24. 43.75%

<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]25. 0%

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]So what do we make of all that aside from the obvious - that pick 6 is cursed, pick 13 is ironically blessed and pick 23 is nothing special. It's abundantly clear that higher the pick, the greater general chance of success you have, particularly if you have a pick in the top 3-5.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]If you're after someone to hold down a KPF spot, don't settle for second best unless it's a larger than average field that year. They'll more than likely not make the grade.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]Midfielders are arguably your safest bet in terms of available quantity and overall success rate. That being said, most teams are teeming with developing midfield prospects so their value is somewhat diminished. You never know though, they may land themselves a cushy HBF/HFF position in later years; a good result.

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<p style='font-size: 12px; font-family: Helvetica; color: #424242;]As to the title question of what is the value of pick 15; it's pretty much an even money bet. If you're looking to draft young talent your best bet is to get a pick in the top 5, or if that's not possible, hedging your bets by picking up multiple picks in the 5-20 range. The odds say one of them will come good.