The boys fromDTInsider.com
take a close look at how each ground effects DT Scoring. Remember, when reading, that it's DT based. And always, if you like what you read, check out their site, orgive em a like on facebook.



There are so many variables that influence Dream Team scoring, and this article attempts to break down the effect of location, using every regular season game from Round 1 in 2008 to Round 4 in 2013.



First things first - there is a degree of chicken and egg to this. It isn't easy to separate the overall scoring in the game between the teams involved, the conditions on the day, or where the game is played. That said, we'll soldier on with the facts and work through a few conclusions from what they show us.



Additionally, one thing to remember about the data in the previous tables is that it is based on all regular season games from 2008 to 2013 - so each AFL team may not be at the same DT scoring level that they were at the beginning of the time period.








I've highlighted 7 of the venues as at this stage there haven't really been enough games yet to be certain just how they will settle long term. In addition, many of these are typical neutral games” or venues such as Skoda where an expansion team has played every game and thus the averaged are skewed.



The first thing to notice is the highest scoring venues overall - Skilled, Aurora & Etihad. But clearly, one of those three is not like the other. Whereas at Skilled and Aurora the overall scoring levels are driven largely by the efforts of Geelong and Hawthorn respectively, Etihad has a variety of teams that play there and contribute to the overall rank.



Skilled's results are quite remarkable - Geelong is averaging 1,802 DT points per game at Skilled, and 1,688 in all games in the same period. Yet their opposition is averaging just 1,391 DT points per game, good enough for last place of all venues. So its clearly misleading just to associate Skilled with being a high scoring ground overall, when its just the Cats making themselves captain and running riot.



Aurora is a very similar situation; Hawthorn averaged 1,609 over all its games in this period, but this rises to 1,663 at this venue.



Etihad's statistics reveal it to be a slightly better than average DT scoring venue - something which is probably accepted without fact more often than not - but at least now there is some data to back that up.



Looking at the other end of the scale, it's a tale of 3 venues and 2 teams; the SCG, ANZ Stadium and the Gabba. The first two have Sydney as the home team, which confirms the general perception of most football fans and DT experts. What doesn't escape my attention is that Sydney actually scores better at these venues than it does elsewhere; averaging 1,519 per game in the 5+ years at all venues but 1,544 and 1,523 at these two. It is the absolute strangling of their opponents which is the big red flag for any DT coach as the weeks progress.



The Gabba is one of the only venues (excluding the new venues) where opponents actually average more than the home team. Brisbane themselves score better at home than away, so clearly their opponents are enjoying whatever the Lions are serving up.



THE REMAINING SCHEDULE



Applying what we have learned from above, and ignoring venues that are largely neutral or where there is not enough data to form a view, we can identify certain games that are likely to be high or low scoring DT events.



Geelong, with 7 games at Skilled between now and the end of the season, stand out as a likely team to target from the byes onwards. Sydney's last month might be a good time to consider playing matchups at the expense of your Sydney premiums.



Note that in the table below, GCS looks a lot worse than GWS primarily because we're ignoring the Skoda games for lack of data but including Metricon.








OH CAPTAIN MY CAPTAIN



As our push for the perfect captain is a dilemma for all DT coaches on a weekly basis, I thought it might be interesting if we looked at the number of +100, +125 and +150 scores that have occurred at each venue over the last 5+ years.



Most of the conclusions follow in line with the overall scoring - Skilled & Aurora the venues with most of the big scores, and the SCG & ANZ Stadium with the least.



The Gabba provides another unusual result here though - while they are pretty much league average for +100 and +125 scores, it's almost impossible for anyone to land a 150+ score there.



(for the record - the 4 players to have 150+ games at the Gabba and ANZ Stadium in 77 combined games played there: Dean Cox in 2008, Justin Sherman in 2009 & Tom Rockliff in 2011 at the Gabba and Josh Kennedy (Syd) in 2012 at ANZ Stadium.)








FINAL THOUGHTS



Like any DT analysis, no-one piece of data is the prize that will unlock the car, but put them all together and you're in a better position to make the decisions that will help you win overall, win your league, or just win your matchup this week.



Next up is analysis on the remaining draw and which teams (and players) are the ones to target and avoid.