This is my first ever post. Spend a bit of time on the TS site and love it as it has allowed me to do the maths that I am about to present. Have seen a bit of conversation regarding picking up a forward this week and have read this pretty closely as I plan on doing a down/up in order to pick up a premium fwd. Decided I want to turn Matera into a MID/FWD because of the flexibility it allows with the byes and injuries of late. This is my last big trade before I dig in and save my trades for LTI’s and finals so have done a bit of homework and thought I would share and see what people thought. Before I go into more detail I should point out my team already has Goodes and Chapman and I’m only going for the league win. I have been looking at ROK, Pav and Boomer. The other obvious options are Sylvia or Fyfe but I don’t rate them and both seem like they will be affected by injury. What I have done is look at the projected scores and done some calculations with the averages, the plan being to pick a player on averages rather than form maybe for the first time ever! I have looked at all the games left for each player and worked out how many total points I could expect to receive from the player as well as average points per game for each player for the rest of the season by combining avg. points against team and avg. points at ground and then dividing by two. Results (rounded) are as follows: ROK: 1100 total points @ 92 points per game Pav: 1157 @ 96 Boomer: 1103 @ 92 Based on that you would go for Pav. But then I thought I should have a look at the last four games. This pretty much rules Boomer out because the Roo’s have the bye in Rd. 21. Results for last four rounds (rounded) are: ROK: 372 @ 93 Pav: 378 @ 94 Boomer: 265 @ 88 I then thought maybe I could save a trade and go sideways to Didak. So I ran through the same process for Dids with the following results: Didak: 911 @ 76 Last 4 rounds: Didak: 316 @ 77 To me this says Didak doesn’t compare and you shouldn’t expect too much from Dids if you pick him up cheap. So that takes me back to ROK Vs Pav. I’ve never had Pav in my team and I had ROK last year and wish I had Pav instead at times. Both have byes in non league rounds. Both in good form. Both play a current top two side in round 23. The similarities are a bit uncanny. Seven points difference in current averages but the stats say I should only expect to miss out on 57 points if I chose ROK. About now you are saying Pav is more consistent. Somewhat true, based on the numbers if I chose Pav I should expect one score in the 90’s, one in the 80’s and one in the 70’s. If I go for ROK three in the 90’s, one in the 80’s and one in the 70’s. The flip side to this is that I could expect three scores over 115 with ROK and only one with Pav. So my decision... the numbers say Pav but I’m thinking about going with ROK based on last weeks big score as well as Pavlich's current form
Nice work @82! I've got them both... But I'd go pav. He's scored pretty well in the last few weeks and perth media has the heat on him saying he's out of form. I reckon he'll respond in the next few weeks with some good scoring.
<blockquote>Quote from krys on June 7, 2011, 12:25 I have the same dilemma... Also worth mentioning ROK is about $70k cheaper </blockquote> If he is 70k cheaper and going off the maths above to 'assume' he is going to average just under what Pav does from here on in.. ROK it is..
I have Pav and not ROK, but all things being equal, and based on all of the above maths, grab ROK over Pav! If you're looking to save some cash, pick ROK. If you're looking for an extra 4ppg, then go Pav.
I have Pav already, but need another forward upgrade for Darling. Actually I need 2 FWD upgrades, one for Krakouer too. I've shortlisted Goodes, ROK and Rioli. I'd prefer to not have a player who has a bye during SC finals, so for now Chapman and the expensive Stevie J are out. Fyfe is an outside chance, but I'll wait to see how his shoulder goes and the effect of Barlow's return. I currently have Franklin, Pav, Sylvia, N Riewoldt, Yarran, Krakouer and Darling as my starting FWD 7. (Bench are all cows - Mzungu, Lynch, Richardson) Trying to separate Goodes, ROK and Rioli seems a futile task. I might need to pick a name out of a hat.
@ Golingo Same process as above has the following results for Goodes & Rioli: Goodes: 1024 @ 85 but last 4 games is 380 @ 95. Rioli: 993 @ 87 cant do last 4 because they play GC in last round but that could be an incentive to have him. Both players appear less consistent than ROK in my opinion.
Rioli seems likely to spend less time in the middle and more time in the forward line then was expected pre season due to them having to manage his hammies. worth keeping in mind when choosing
@82asch Judging by the length of your post, you are most certainly TOOSERIOUS and ought to post more often haha. Seems like Pav has dropped during Sandi's absence. I would expect him to improve slightly with Sandi's return in 3 weeks. I would expect Pav to score 50-100 points in the home stretch (like his R13-15 schedule: Melb, Bri, GC), but would the $70k saving from ROK be more valuable to you?
<blockquote>Quote from 82asch on June 7, 2011, 16:05 @ Golingo Same process as above has the following results for Goodes & Rioli: Goodes: 1024 @ 85 but last 4 games is 380 @ 95. Rioli: 993 @ 87 cant do last 4 because they play GC in last round but that could be an incentive to have him. Both players appear less consistent than ROK in my opinion. </blockquote> Thanks for the numbers! It's interesting, you often hear of ROK burning people with inconsistency in the past. Looking at this years numbers though, he seems no more (or less, really) inconsistent than Goodes or Cyril.