Which way do you go?

With the byes coming in to play I have problems in the forward line and midfield that I would imagine most SCers would have.

As most people would only want a max of 2 players from a single team in one line and possibly only 1 premium. Do you go for:

L.Franklin or C.Rioli
D.Swan or S.Pendlebury

Can you afford to have both players in the same position if they will both be missing in the same games?

Thoughts?

 

My initial thoughts are to start Swan and bring in Pendles after round 13 - Collingwood are the first team (other than GC) to complete both their byes. This is also dependent on pre-season form, so it could end up being the opposite selection. Either way it is one or the other, with the "other" being my second midfield upgrade after Ablett in round 11.

Franklin vs Rioli is a little bit more complex. Alot depends on the other players in the forward line, particularly how many KP forwards you have. Franklin is arguably a top 3 KP forward so it just depends if you want to go with 2 or 3 KPPs. Rioli on the other hand is trying to break into the Hawks strong midfield group. I'm not entirely convinced he can better Franklin's point scoring ability consistently.

Going with both players in the one line is definitely a risk that depends heavily on rookie selection. If one rookie gets dropped then you might survive, but if 2 of your rookies are dropped before the byes come along then welcome to donut-ville

 

I was thinking that with Pendles and Swanny but Cyril and Buddy will be a problem, Buddy could be a upgrade target after Round 6

 

OK. I'm completely stuck on the choice between buddy & Cyril too. my 1st draft team has half my forward line missing in round 6. being a hawthorn fan i'm clearly not capable of stepping back and seeing it in an unbiased manner, so I'm going to make the case for each player, and why they should be in every team. and everyone else can play devils advocate and tell me why i'm wrong.

Cyril:
I genuinely think he will move into elite company this year. he is a quick, highly skilled player who has shown improvement every year and is looking to take on more of a midfield role.
Last year, he finished with an average of 95ppg, but he had an interrupted pre-season and carried a groin strain into the season. his average from rounds 1-9 was a measly 68ppg, but from round 10 onwards he averaged 114 ppg.
very real chance you could pick up a player who averages 110+ for around $450K.

Buddy:
I think 2009 was a hiccup. they tried bulking him up without losing his athleticism and it failed. I can't see him going backwards again.
2010 was a return to form. it's interesting to note that his average last year, was the same as 2008 when he kicked 100 goals(he kicked 40 goals less in 2010). I think this makes him more valuable then any other KPF as he can still score points when he's not kicking goals.
my only reservation is his history with the match review panel, but hopefully last year was a steep learning curve, and he'll play a full season.
I think sometimes people forget he's still learning the game. another 20-30 goals on top of last year, and he could easily bump his avg up to 115ppg.
barring injury, is a lock to finish in the top 7 averages for forwards.

So, if there were no byes, both these players would be starting in my team. but if I want to avoid getting smashed in rd 6. a compromise needs to be reached and probably means one of these players becomes an upgrade target. even if you agree with me, I heartily encourage any counter argument.

 

Personally i would start with Pendles and Rioli. Swan has shown for a few years now, that he begins the season slowly, and then turns up the heat somewhere just before halfway through the season. Making him a better upgrade option. I would start Rioli ahead of Buddy for one reason. If Rioli does suddenly start averaging 120+, you don't want to miss that. Whereas Buddy will probably average somewhere about the same, perhaps a bit higher than last year. And, being a KPF, he will likely string together a few average games somewhere, so he can be an upgrade target.

I will be upgrading to Swan, although i'm not a huge fan of Pendles. But Rioli will likely start in my team, with Buddy an upgrade target. Simply so i don't get destroyed by round 6 when Chappy, Pav, etc all miss as well.

 

Like Ruddy I'm also having trouble with Chapman/Rioli being out R6. Not only that but starting Petrie in FWD with MPP means that you'll probably need him to replace Sandilands that round as well via Tippett - that's 3 players out in one round.

 

depends what your mid structure is like moonwalker, but at least with chappy, there's the option to bench him in the mids and bring a krakouer or a mzungu forward for cover.

I like the logic behind choosing cyril over buddy.

 

The way i see it, you should be able to cover at least 3 players between your forward line and ruck at a minimum. There are 5 subs between the rucks and forward line. Presumably, Sandi will need covering for most people in the rucks, and then i would want to be able to cover 3 in my forward line, whether using mpp, or just forward subs. But i reckon i will only have Chappy and Rioli at that time. Pav is a potential upgrade target for me, as is Buddy.

 

The arguments are strong for any of the starting combinations.

Franklin, as a goal scorer should tend to dip in price when he has the inevitable "goalless" game, but with that said, he has the ability to play up the ground now if it looks as though he's being well held up forward so could always find the pill that way. With Melbourne, Richmond and WestCoast(tassie) in rounds 2-4 there is potential for some big scores against younger sides.

Rioli i believe will appreciate more than Buddy this year, especially if he spends more time in the midfield (i'm still not convinced of this, with hoops and peterson gone I'm hoping he crumbs a lot up forward).

I think Pendles represents better value than Swan and has the ability to increase his scoring output and will rope Swan back in points wise. And as previously mentioned, Swan tends to start slowly and at a significantly higher price, you're more likely to be able to save 50-80k on him later as opposed to Pendles.

The issue I see, however, with starting the "cheaper but better value" options of Rioli and Swan, is the points you may forgo early on. Franklin has his uncanny ability to randomly explode and pull out a monster at any given time, while Swan simply has a higher scoring potential at the minute than does Pendles.

League/Value wise, I'd rather start pendlebury with the view to upgrading to Swan when he dips his usual amount, but I'm not so convinced that's the way to go for overall as you might simply miss out on too many points.

 

Good point bonesy, i didn't even think of moving Chappy into the midfield. That basically means you only have to cover Cyril in the forward line (unless you have more than just Cyril and Chappy up forward)

 

except one of my examples, Mzungu, also has a bye. arrrhghhhh

 

While Franklin can pull out the big ones, Rioli also can. Franklin had 2 scores over 130 last year. Both of which he backed up with scores less than 90. Rioli had 3 scores over 130, and 2 of them he backed up with scores over 100. The other was right before he struggled with injuries. Once Rioli got over his injury trouble, he averaged about 115 for the last 11 rounds that he played. Even if he doesn't get more midfield time, he could/should still average 115+. And i reckon he will get slightly more midfield time, possibly increasing his average to 120+. But given his average over the year last year is tarnished by the early part of his season, Rioli is under priced, and is a bigger bargain than Franklin.

On the other hand, Franklin would have to increase his scoring to not decrease in value. And if he ever had a few bad weeks, he would fall pretty quick.

 

Trying not to complicate things here but to me you would go pendles and cyril.
Both will increase in output and the money you save might be able to give you x1 extra premium.
Try and keep it simple. You can overcomplicate things and just come up with a cloudy picture.

 

Can someone go through with me why Pendles is worthy of a starting spot in an SC team? If anything the likes of Beams, Toovey etc. will develop as players, and steal some of his points. Why is he better than Ablett, Judd, Hodge, etc.?

 

Pendles is a young deveolping elite mid. If fit his game can only improve this year, hes still only quite young. Even if he doesnt improve which is unlikely he is still a solid prem. He cant go backwards which is a risk with alot of other prems