TooSerious

It's Thursday night, and we all know what that means.

Bin night.

Also, Teams.


Wowzers, look at all those outs. And with Mitchell, Enright, Hickey and Ziebell still all questionable, it's a bloody tough week! Hope you've got your rookies sorted!

Ins: Mitchell, Laidler, M. Crouch, Rockliff, Webster, Barry

Outs: Hodge, Fyfe, Barlow, B. Crouch, Hampson, Deledio, Dixon, Hurn, Michie, Whitfield, Ryder

xInt: Barry, Ziebell, Ambrose, Gleeson

Turns out I, as a parent, have failed my daughter somehow.
Just tonight, after putting in her picks for tonight, did she realise that the team on the left is the home team, and that it's a massive advantage.
Too late for her to change them now! mwahahaha.
Anyways, she's still doing alright, 11 tips correct thus far.
Her tips this week are as follows.
Hawthorn v Fremantle

Western v Richmond

Adelaide v Sydney

Gold Coast v Brisbane

West Coast v St. Kilda

Collingwood v Geelong

GWS v Melbourne

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Essendon v Carlton

We're two games into the 2014 AFL season, so let's take a look at the players in contention for the Brownlow Medal.



Gary Ablett Jr



The second generation star and two time Brownlow Medal winner will be desperate to claim a third medal as it will prove that he is the greatest player of his generation. The Gold Coast Suns man is the 5/1 favourite with bet365 to win a third medal which would make him the first player to win successive Brownlow Medals since Robert Harvey (1997,98). Ablett has had a decent start to the season; he has 65 successful disposals to his name as well as nine tackles and two games. With Ablett you always feel that he will be at the top of his game every time he steps onto the field and you can go as far as saying that the Suns are a one man team. If Ablett can guide the Suns to a position higher than last year's 13th place finish then he deserves a medal just on merit. The best player in the league bar none and if he plays to the best of his ability he's a shoe-in.

Jobe Watson



Essendon midfielder Watson will be desperate to add a second Brownlow Medal to his mantelpiece and the 29-year-old looks a good bet to win it (he's priced at 11/2 with bet365). Watson has made an absolutely blistering start to the 2014 season; his 68 disposals are the second highest in the league, while his ten tackles and two goals have been gladly welcomed by his Essendon teammates. A good barometer in seeing how good Watson has been thus far is his AFL fantasy score, which currently stands at 136.5. Only three players have scored higher so far. It really is a toss-up between Watson and Ablett - while Ablett may be the better player, Watson plays for a better team and one that should reach the play-offs. If Watson can help Essendon to a play-off place then he may just pip Ablett.

Scott Pendlebury



The 8/1 outsider is storming the AFL so far and is without doubt...

While round 1 team selection was a variation on the traditional knapsack problem, i.e. 'given a set of items, each with a mass and a value, determine the items to include in a collection so that the total weight is less than or equal to a given limit and the total value is as large as possible', the team selections now need to factor in the bench players who can play one week but not the other, dual-position players who can switch between lines to make space for other players coming into the team and of course trades to maximise the total score season to date.




Just to be clear, every week I throw out all previously determined team selections and trades and recalculate the round by round selections and trades to maximise the total score ... it wouldn't be the maximum total score season to date otherwise.




Given the additional complexities, I can't easily work it out like I could after round 1, at least not in a way that I'm sure I get the highest scoring selections and trades. So it's time for me to fire up the big gun, load it with my 'math' and let it do its' magic:




<table border='0' cellspacing='0' cellpadding='0' width='100%]
<tbody>

<td valign='bottom' style='background-color: #4f81bd; height: 15pt; width: 50.4pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: solid none double solid; text-align: left; white-space: nowrap;]
<p style='text-align: center;][span style='font-size: 10px; color: white;]Position

<td valign='bottom' style='background-color: #4f81bd; height: 15pt; width: 129.4pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: solid none double; text-align: left; white-space: nowrap;]
[span style='font-size: 10px; color: white;]Player

<td valign='bottom' style='background-color: #4f81bd; height: 15pt; width: 35.4pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; border-style: solid none double; text-align: left; white-space: nowrap;]
<p...

After a big first 2 rounds, here are the scores brought to you by walesy's Statpages and Scoreboards
Round 1: With the 2 week round, we had a rolling lockout. Some coaches adapted well to this and used switching well to win. We had some problems with the new TsLeagues system but a certain 'strong silent type' eventually learned how to use it well, some scoring problems arose due to differences in forum/TsLeague teams but it was eventually resolved:
Scores:
Gisborne 779 vs Goondiwindi 1445
BAFFU (Best And Fairest for FU) Votes:3 Bruest (GOO) 2 Ward (GOO) 1 Sandilands (GOO)
Trent West also proved a good addition to his new clubs (Brisbane and Gisborne) scoring 100 and getting the POOYA (Pull One Out Ya Ass) award for round 1 but outs proved costly for Gisborne.
Eden 1217 vs Blanchetown 1450
Votes: 3 Prestia (BLA) 2 Jones (EDN) 1 Pendles (BLA)
Manangatang 1079 vs Banchang 1138
Votes:3 J.Selwood (BAN) 2 J.Watson (MAN) 1 D.Swallow (BAN) *Selwood and Watson tied. Wining team gets the 3
Southern Cross 1248 vs Cow Bay 1028
Votes:3 Lecrae 2 Fyfe 1 Myers (All SOU)
Pakenham 1299 vs Korumburra 1156
Votes: 3 Ablett 2 Beams 1 N.Roo (All PAK)


Coolgardie 1165 vs King Island 1070
Votes:3 Wines 2 Mummy 1 Omeara (All CGD)
Christmas Island 1140 vs Serengeti 1371
Votes:3 Goddard 2 Deledio 1 Chappy (All SER)
Ararat 1274 vs Groote Eylandt 1308
Votes: 3 Treloar (ARA) 2 Zorko (GRT) 1 Hoff (ARA)


Staghorn Flat 1274 vs Pearcedale 1049
Votes:3 Rosa (PEA) 2 Birchall (STG) 1 J.Roughead (STG)
Ladder...

We're now into one of the most important parts of the SuperCoach season; when players are ready for their first price change come round three. The most important element of this is the rookies. Those that have played two games are on the bubble and ready to make serious cash for your side.



Unless you're a fantasy God, chances are that when selecting the many rookies in your side you may have at least one or two who aren't performing. That makes correctional trades to bring in the right rookies all the more important and with 30 trades, you can't afford not to. It could be the difference between being able to afford Pendlebury or having to settle with a Cotchin/Rockliff type.



In recognition of this unique time in our trading season, to make this all easier I've put together an extensive and comprehensive guide to all the rookies who are ready for a price rise and written a summary which will help you gain some context into their individual situations as well as supplying all the details you will need to know about their scoring. Along with a big cup of coffee and the Best Buys later today you should be set and on your way to making what is hopefully your first batch of trades this year.



All info is pretty self-explanatory except for PP which stands for Projected Profit. This is got by using the salary calculator of each player in the Stats and using 10 games played (so 8 more) to take prices and working out the differences. One thing you should note is that byes have not been taken into considerations, so 10 games means Rd 11 at earliest, so keep that in mind (you'll be getting rid of some rookies before then anyway). Tried to be optimistic and conservative at the same time but play around yourself if you disagree with any projections!





DEFENCE



Late in the pre-season there seemed to be plenty of options to choose from in defence but our early fears have eventuated and there's not a lot of variety down back...

Welcome once again to another week of TooSerious Best Buys.

This week it's still a little different to normal, with all the scores still fluctuating wildly, but even more so due to a couple of extra details.

For starters, there are no rookies. Why you may ask? Simple really, because P_L has already covered all the rookie options going around the traps, and in more depth I might add, so there's no point in doubling up and repeating what you've already read.

The other main difference is the sheer number of players still averaging well above the norm, which means for this week we've again focused on the players averaging over 100, and in most cases over 110. This means there are still many players who could be considered a bit stiff to not make the cut, but as the season rolls on the numbers should sort themselves out and the true value players will emerge.

Again there is no Best Buy, as the only real reason teams should be trading this early on is for 'correction trades', but the last thing you all need is lecturing on how to run your SuperCoach sides. (Editors note, personally I made 2 trades last week and will make another 2 this week, it really is each to their own).




DEFENSE
MID-PRICERS




David Swallow (GCS) D/M 429.4k 131

Swallow carried his excellent form from the opening round into the game against Fremantle, and while the Suns couldn't replicate the win Swallow certainly came away with the SC points. Averaging 131 from the first 2 games and facing a 60 grand price rise, Swallow looks like the pick off the backs so far and is already in around 63,000 sides.



Shaun Burgoyne (HAW) D/M 459.6k 113

Burgoyne surprised a few with his 130 on the weekend, but it was in the absence of Mitchell and with Hodge also injured so he may not keep it going for long. Averaging 113 and looking at around a 33 grand price rise this week if he can stay...

Six teams remain undefeated after two rounds of the 2014 ORFFA season - with a couple of surprise packets among them.



Iron Knob 1423 d Wagga Wagga 1237
The Codpieces made it 2-0 to start the season, enjoying comfortable win over a game Wombats squad.

Iron Knob just had a touch too much class and depth across the park, allowing it to cover for absences and injuries (to Hodge, most notably).

Hanley and Burgoyne both cracked 130 in the backline, while Shuey had 137 off the bench. Worryingly for other teams, Ablett, Griffin, Goldstein and Jack Riewoldt were below par.

The Wombats were led by the young (D Swallow) and older (Bob Murphy) with six players cracking the ton in all. Down games from Franklin, L Thomas, Cox and Bastinac proved too hard a hurdle to overcome.



Foul Bay 1455 d Mt Beauty 1290
The reigning premiers are also 2-0 but didn't have it all their own way against an improving Mt Beauty squad.

Big Mummy's 158 led eight Foul Bay players who scored 100 or more. The midfield of Selwood, Libba, Stokes and Kelly again - as it has so often before - was the driving force behind the Chickens' big score.

Mt Beauty though were far from run off the par, with the Uglies' high quality forwardline of Rioli, Nick Riewoldt, Martin and Wingard all reaching triple figures. Nick Riewoldt's 152 underlining his hot start to the season.

Ultimately though, a solid rather than spectacular effort from the Uglies' midfield - including Troy Menzel's OOP-affected 35 - saw Mt Beauty fall a little off the pace.



Darraweit Guim 1509 d Cradle Mountain 1347
In one of the highest scoring games in the ORFFA's short history, more than 2850 points were scored by the Blimps and Devils, with Darraweit running out 162-point winners.

In a game highlighted by individual brilliance, it was Darraweit's greater consistency that proved the deciding factor - with all bar two players scoring between 73 and 117.

The Devils' gun...

So, who's happy with their back line this week?

From Mitchell, Birchall and Hodge on Friday night, to Enright, Hurn and a whole slew of rookies, it was an absolutely clustertruck in the back line!

Anyways, stats are upload now, so I'll let you know when it's done.

In the meantime- how'd this weekend treat you?

We ended up with 32 teams in the group, but 2 of them didn't start with the correct team, so we have 30 teams in the comp for 2014.

I find the round 1 scores particularly interesting, because we all had the same 30 players, so all differences in the scores came down to our selections of benches and captains etc.

The best possible score we could have had for round 1 was 2214, with this arrangement:

Def: Swallow 135; Hurn 99; Laidler 95; Shaw 85; Mitchell 84; Guthrie 76. (Georgiou 64; McDonald 48)
Mid: Ablett (C) 140x2=280; Beams 136; Tyson 111; Polec 107; Dunstan 100; Rockliffe 95; Liberatore 79; Ellis 66. (Thomas 62; Michie 61)
Ruc: Sandilands 127; Lobbe 76. (Derickx 0; Thurlow 0)
Fwd: Dangerfield 107; Martin 102; Caddy 81; Daniher 70; Impey 56; Rohan 47. (Kennedy-Harris 24; Dixon 22)


There was a fairly big range of actual scores with 'BigGuns' the best coming in at 2142, whilst two teams didnt even crack 2000.

It seems that the only differences BigGuns had from the ultimate lineup above, was Daisy onfield for Dunstan, and Dixon onfield for Impey.


Five teams scored greater than 2100.
Three scored greater than 2090, but less than 2100.
14 teams actually all scored 2090!
6 scored greater than 2000, but less than 2090;
and as mentioned above, 2 scored less than 2000.
The lowest score of the round was 'Green Onion' with 1989.

Even though we all started with the same 30 players, there is already a gap of around 150 points between 1st and last, after just 1 round.


Quite a few of us have already made some trades, which will make this even more interesting from here on in