TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Teams will be coming out soon. Let all hope that they're a lot kinder than last week!
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Join us in theChatto discuss and all that stuff.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
Geelong v Essendon

Etihad Stadium, Friday May 10, 7.50pm
Geelong

FB: Andrew Mackie, Tom Lonergan, Corey Enright

HB: Cameron Guthrie, Harry Taylor, Taylor Hunt

C: Mitch Duncan, Jimmy Bartel, Steven Motlop

HF: Allen Christensen, Steve Johnson, Billie Smedts

FF: Mathew Stokes, Tom Hawkins, James Podsiadly

Fol: Trent West, Joel Selwood, James Kelly

Int: Jackson Thurlow, Jordan Schroder, Mark Blicavs, George Horlin-Smith
In: Schroder, Thurlow

Out: Joel Corey, Jordan Murdoch
Essendon

FB: Michael Hibberd, Dustin Fletcher, Kyle Hardingham

HB: Dyson Heppell, Jake Carlisle, Mark Baguley

C: Jason Winderlich, Jobe Watson, David Zaharakis

HF: Brendon Goddard, Scott Gumbleton, Alwyn Davey

FF: Nick Kommer, Stewart Crameri, Michael Hurley

Fol: Tom Bellchambers, Ben Howlett, Jake Melksham

Int: Nathan Lovett-Murray, Heath Hocking, Cale Hooker, David Myers
In: Fletcher, Winderlich, Lovett-Murray, Hurley, Carlisle, Heppell

Out: Brent Stanton, David Hille, Courtenay Dempsey, Leroy Jetta, Tayte Pears, Jackson Merrett

Port Adelaide v Richmond

AAMI Stadium, Saturday May 11, 1.15pm
Port Adelaide

FB: Cameron O'Shea, Alipate Carlile, Campbell Heath

HB: Lewis Stevenson, Thomas Jonas, Domenic Cassisi

C: Kane Cornes, Travis Boak, Matthew Broadbent

HF: Chad Wingard, Jay Schulz, Angus Monfries...
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Swan v. Fremantle
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 14 2012: 147 SC points, 43 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 23 2011: 126 SC points, 35 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 8 2010: 133 SC points, 31 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 13 2009: 167 SC points, 41 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 22 2008: 89 SC points, 21 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 1 2008: 80 SC points, 27 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 10 2007: 152 SC points, 35 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Average is 128 SC points with 33 disposals.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Note: Great record against Fremantle, especially over his last four games against them where he has averaged 143. Has not been tagged in recent games against the Dockers (Crowley tagged Beams in 2012, tagged Leon Davis in 2011 and tagged Dale Thomas in 2010). Who knows who Crowley will tag in this game? Solid form this year coming off scores of 118, 127 and 168 (averaging 124 for the season).
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Ablett v. Melbourne
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 19 2011: 165 SC points, 33 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 23 2011: 125 SC points, 28 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 10 2010: 138 SC points, 32 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 16 2009: 124 SC points, 40 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 6 2009: 91 SC points, 25 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 19 2008: 84 SC points, 22 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 3 2008: 115 SC points, 29 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 3 2007: 130 SC points, 30 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Average is 122 SC points with 30 disposals.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 16.363636016845703px;]This week in the Best Buys we take a look at the area that is currently causing the most concerns, the defense (as well as the others). Many strategists and leaders over time have stated that 'the best form of defense is a good offense', or similar words, however they obviously weren't talking about SC. After a large chunk of the popular choices were either ruled out with injury last week, or played only to get injured, a lot of teams are looking for a good defender (or two) to try and block some holes.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 16.363636016845703px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 16.363636016845703px;]Heath Shaw makes himself the Best Buy for the week, after a promising performance in his last game and the recent injury of Toovey he appears to be playing a similar role to previous years and a more defined one to earlier in the season. Heater may have been better value last week, as a few pointed out in the comments section, but after a minimal price rise he's still looking good value.


DEFENSE

<strong style='font-size: 13.63636302947998px;]ROOKIES[/b]




Sam Docherty (BRI) DEF 115.9k 54 +40k

Whilst Docherty didn't get a game last weekend he is still on the bubble, and likely to rise by around 40 grand in price after his next match. The fact that he's already in and out of the side doesn't bode particularly well for his ongoing job security.





Justin Clarke (BRI) DEF 115.9k 52...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Yes, you all read the title there right.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]$500 dollars to the winner of this weeks TS comp over atStadium Sport
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Not only that, but it's the grand final replay match, which should make for some cracking footy!


I gotta say though, with the price adjustments taking place on a weekly basis, this Stadium Sports game is getting harder and hard by the week!



Just remember, they operate on a rolling average, just like the comps that we're all familiar with, so those bargain players are still in there for the taking!



Oh, and don't forget to friend me on there so I can track your progress- Les Wales



Cheers peeps. And may your selections win you da monies.
Thanks toDaniel Cherny from[span style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px; background-color: #ffffff;]www.backpagelead.com.au



<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-size: 15px; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px;]Geelong continue to astonish with their longevity at the upper reaches of the AFL ladder. Striving for a fourth premiership in seven seasons, the Cats remain one of only three undefeated sides this year, having accounted for both of last year's Grand Finalists in the process. The men from 'sleepy hollow' truly are modern football's immovable object.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-size: 15px; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px;]In stringing together their five consecutive wins to begin the 2013 season, the Cats have called upon 27 players, of whom 17 have played in at least one of the club's recent premierships. The influential performances of inexperienced duo Steven Motlop and George Horlin-Smith, along with the promising cameo offerings of Billie Smedts, Mark Blicavs and Josh Caddy, have further validated the widely held belief that Geelong's list will not disintegrate once the majority of its premiership heroes have called time on their storied careers.
<p style='margin-bottom: 1.3em; font-size: 15px; background-color: #ffffff; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 22px;]Yet it is not merely the the sprinkling of talented youth that gives the 2013 Cats a distinctly different look in comparison to its flag-winning antecedents. It...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Now, I really enjoyed last weeks random chat.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Thinking we should do it as a weekly thing, heck, I'll even give out a TS subscription as a weekly prize.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;](Unless of course, someone wants to sponsor it!)
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Anyways, first topic of the chat- Tuesday Chat, it's a terrible name. Come up with something clever.
<p style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;]When I look back at 2013, I imagine that round 6 will stand out as that week that officially killed my season.
<p style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;]What an absolute killer of a week!
<p style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;]now, since I've been out all weekend, the review will be late, perhaps non existent, but I would still love to hear how it's treated you.


That said, Shenanigans has been a bit of a boss, getting in the Sunday reviews! Legend mate!



<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;]Sydney Swans V Brisbane Lions
<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;] font-size: 13px;]Sydney by 60
<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;]
<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;]The first of three very one-sided Sunday games saw the reigning premiers romping it in over the Lions. It also saw me achieve a painful SECOND on StadiumSport.com, which almost makes me forget my woeful 2022. Almost.The biggest talking point for me this weekend is the push/hands in the (insert random body part)&amp;rdquo; in marking contests. They only seem to happen when a goal could be kicked as a result of the contest, and are not being adjudicated consistently (IMHO). The game, she is a changing, and not for the better. 95% of...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Yep, #Defencageddon.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Get into theChatand tell us your woes.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Or get in there and talk footy and watch the games. Maybe with a beer, or a glass of wine. Some chips. Heck, maybe order in a pizza and make a night of it.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]I imagine we're all ducking and covering and preparing for DEFENCAGEDDON!!!
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Join in theChatas the teams are announced. You never know, maybe they won't be so bad to us.
COLLINGWOOD v ST KILDA, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm AEST, Friday 3 May
COLLINGWOOD

B: N.Brown B.Reid B.Macaffer

HB: M.Clarke H.Shaw H.O'Brien

C: S.Sidebottom D.Swan D.Thomas

HF: J.Elliott T.Cloke Q.Lynch

F: B.Kennedy T.Goldsack S.Dwyer

R: D.Jolly S.Pendlebury J.Blair

I/C: A.Krakouer J.Witts J.Thomas P.Seedsman

EMG: A.Fasolo J.Russell M.Williams

IN: Krakouer, Jolly, J Thomas, Witts, Kennedy

OUT: Toovey, Hudson, Russell, Fasolo, Sinclair
ST KILDA

B: Wright Fisher Gilbert

HB: Dempster Roberton Geary

C: Dal Santo Hayes Murdoch

HF: Armitage Stanley Montagna

F: Saunders Riewoldt Koschitzke

R: McEvoy Jones Steven

I/C: Ross Saad Milne Siposs

EMG: Hickey Newnes Webster

IN: S.Milne, A.Siposs

OUT: T.Dennis-Lane (omitted), T.Lee (Achilles)
ESSENDON v GWS GIANTS, Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm AEST, Saturday 4 May
ESSENDON

B: M.Hibberd T.Pears C.Dempsey

HB: K.Hardingham C.Hooker B.Goddard

C: M.Baguley J.Watson D.Zaharakis

HF: J.Merrett S.Crameri J.Melksham

F: A.Davey S.Gumbleton B.Stanton

R: T.Bellchambers B.Howlett N.Kommer

I/C: H.Hocking L.Jetta D.Hille D.Myers

EMG: E.Kavanagh N.O'Brien N.Lovett-Murray

IN: Jetta, Pears, Melksham, Kommer

OUT: Winderlich, Colyer, Heppell, Carlisle
GWS GIANTS

B: A.Kennedy T.Mohr J.Bruce

HB: A.Corr S.Gilham T.Greene

C: T.Scully C.Ward J.Townsend

HF: R.Palmer J.Cameron A.Tomlinson

F: D.Smith S.Frost T.Adams...
There's a discrepancy between SCGold breakevens and our breakevens here on TooSerious. It's one of the most often reported 'bugs' which is actually a feature.

This is the formula you see everywhere to explain how the breakeven number is derived.

((Price/5350) * 3) - Their last two scores.

So, we can run that through with Ablett last week to determine the breakeven from SCGold.

((681200/5350) * 3) - 131 - 112 = 139.

All good and fine.

BUT. Last week, Ablett scored a 160, 21 points above his SCGold predicted breakeven yet what did his salary do? It went DOWN $1,100. (You can see it on Abletts score chart here- He scored well above his 'Break even score'.

For the record, you can check out the TS prediction for Ablett last week here. A 165. Not too shabby, hey?

So why does TooSerious get it so right, and why does SCGold get it wrong?

Well, it all comes down to one important fact. In each individual week, the total salary of every player adds up to the exact same figure. Take a minute to think about that.

In a perfect world, where everybody was getting their averages, the above model would work a treat.

The problem is, that doesn't happen. AFL isn't a static game where week after week, players score their average otherwise this fantasy football lark would be easy.

What tends to happen is that rookies or mid priced players having a breakout year get better. They munch up more of the score and salary movements. You also have players who scored highly last year, who haven't played yet this year, further skewing the results of the total player...