TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

Many a coach has been able to take advantage of the captain loophole in recent years and in 2013 it has become even more prominent with a rolling lockout each and every week. We have already seen the strategy pay off time and again over the first four rounds thus far; however, having a non-playing player able to be used to exploit the loophole has been a bit of a luxury for a lot of us. I think this could be partly due to the perception that we need as many players available to take the field and making cash for our upgrades as possible.



In those good ol' days before there were byes, it was a common and almost necessary strategy to have set and forget premium rucks and a cheap backup in case of emergency, leaving the R4 position almost redundant and only the cheapest of cheap rucks suitable for the role, with job security irrelevant. Although, with the introduction of the byes when Gold Coast joined the AFL, we had to adjust to the new landscape and job security became more important than ever for all 30 positions, and this carried through to last year as well with the 3 bye rounds still causing havoc - especially if we had any players not pull the boots on over that stretch.



This year is very different in both regards, the effect of the 3 bye rounds have been softened with the new rule of the best 18 scores counting for each given week and, as mentioned earlier, we now have the rolling lockout every week.[span style='font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;]So, having as many playing players as possible is probably not as essential as the last two years... But, having as many players as possible making cash? With the extra trades this year, yes, it is probably better to have as many options to cash in as possible, but is it more important than being able to exploit the captains loophole? I personally do not think so.
Lets have a look at the first games of each round so far and see if there were any VC...
mbdvssar.jpg' style='width: 350px; height: 128px;
What a round. Close matches, huge scores, some extremely low scores. Exciting debuts and devastating injuries. It was all happening in the ORFFL.

Review of the games below.




<strong style='font-weight: bold;]MOUNT BUGGERY DISAPPOINTMENTS [/b][span style='font-weight: bold;]1381 DEF<strong style='font-weight: bold;] SARAH ISLAND SAVAGES [/b]1360

Match of the round with both teams battling it out in a massive point-fest as Mount Buggery savagely defeated the disappointed Sarah Island to be the only team remaining undefeated in 2013. It certainly helps when nine of your players score above 90 and only two below 70. Aptly named Sidebottom top-scored with 136, Stanton 117 and Hooker getting in on it with 115. Stoic effort from the Savages despite suffering premiership hangover and Kepler-withdrawls. Sloane turned it on for the first time this year with a massive 146 and Harry Taylor proved he could play at both ends on his way to 125. The jar has been been broken but they are not out yet.


[​IMG]


<strong style='font: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;]WARBURTON WANDERERS[/b] 1188 DEF TARWIN LOWER PIGS 1066

The Wanderers continue heading in the right direction, backing up their first win last week with a comfortable victory over the Pigs. Hartlett top scored for them with 144, revelling in his new D/M status (not to mention Port's 4-zip start). Bailey (113) too is enjoying his time in Warburton, grateful for being put back together again after being pushed off the wall. Scully turned it on for the first time this season against his old club, getting 109. So cocky was the Wanderers coach he didn't even bother to play GHS (105) this week. Few positives for Tarwin but they will be pleased with Giles (97) progression and...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Get in here to let us know how Round 4 is treating you.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Or yanno, drop into theChat
Today coming in from Les Zigomanis at BackpageLead.com.au, Les takes a close look at Collingwood, and why Hawthorn seems to have the wood.




Sunday saw another Collingwood capitulation to Hawthorn, which some might believe is true to form - Hawthorn have won ten of the last thirteen such encounters, after all.

However, let's consider Collingwood's three victories in that trend: in Round 4, 2010, Collingwood by 64 points; in Round 15, 2011, Collingwood by 41 points (a game in which they relaxed once they'd established a commanding lead); and the famous come-from-behind victory in the 2011 Preliminary Final, a match the Hawks had all but won.

They're three relatively meritorious wins, and suggest Collingwood has the potential to beat the Hawks, but, since, haven't been able to put it together to remain competitive throughout a game.
Here are my five reasons why:

5. The Mental Edge
Collingwood's period of mini-dominance against Hawthorn (2010-2011) occurred when Collingwood exercised a stranglehold over the competition through their defensive pressure, unrelenting harassment, and frenetic tackling - the manic system known as The Press. This was their form of intimidation. Now it's well and truly gone.

Defensively, it not only leaves Collingwood lacking, but also vulnerable to sides who are - as Hawthorn have been under Alastair Clarkson - unsociable. Simply, ugly football seems to rattle Collingwood, and they no longer have the punch - or counter-punch - The Press offered them.

Consider, for example, Luke Hodge sliding into Harry O'Brien's feet and upending O'Brien in Sunday's match. O'Brien gets up and appears to check whether Hodge is okay, whilst Burgoyne comes in and offers mini-remonstration.

It's emblematic of the mindset. One side enjoys it down and dirty. The other doesn't. That's not to question Collingwood's courage, collectively or individually, but when the game strays purely from football, when it...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]This week the Best Buys looks at a lot of the players that are increasing in value, and a few who might be decreasing slightly but are still bringing in the big points. There's a few surprises again in the list, with some players continuing to impress and a few others dropping out of the picture.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]The Best Buy this week is none other than Justin Westhoff. Admittedly he isn't as cheap now as he was last week, but he has had another game against good opposition by which to judge him. The Hoff is sitting on top of the SC leader-board this season, and has so far been in incredible form for the coaches brave enough to take the punt early on.



DEFENSE
ROOKIES



Jack HUTCHINS (GCS) DEF 115.9k 83 +78k
Dean Terlich (MEL) DEF 109.5k 59 +48k
Jack Frost (COL) DEF 96.2k 56 +48k



MID-PRICERS



Dyson HEPPELL (ESS) D/M 471.3k 105
Heppell has been good so far this season, after a worrying start he has come back to the numbers his coaches were expecting from him pre-season, and is now averaging 105 for 2013. A solid pick and while still priced under 500 grand should be a bargain.



Jarryn Geary (StK) DEF 425.7k 102
Geary has so far been great value, averaging over 100 and now priced at just over 400 grand if he can maintain this level of output then the under...
1.jpg?format=500w
<div>The Analyst fromDTInsider.comtakes a look at some of the commonly quoted myths around fantasy football, and quietly destroy them with statistics.





Look in any Dream Team forum and it won't take you long before you find a poster quoting some kind of statistic to prove their point about a certain scenario. You hear it in relation to raw stats, to trends, to just about anything.


The trouble with this situation is that unless you're prepared to recreate the work, as long as the statistic makes some kind of sense most people will accept it and move on.



That's not my style.



This article will work our way through a few of the more common myths and truths and add some detail to the discussion to work out how things actually look using Dream Team statistics over the last 5 seasons, rather relying on unsubstantiated opinion.




1. 'AN AVERAGE PLAYER WILL SCORE X DREAM TEAM POINTS A YEAR'








After trending upwards from 2008 to 2010, the last two years have seen this ease back a little. Those two years have seen the introduction of two new teams, the introduction of the green and red vests, and a dramatic increase in the number of substitutions per team - so it might take another season or so to determine if the recent downturn is permanent or not. 2013 is off to a very slow start in terms of DT scoring - well below any yearlong average in recent times, and also well below any first three rounds in the same period.



Just on those vests; data for 2012 suggests that a player not receiving a vest will average 73.37 points per game. Those receiving the green and red vests averaged 30.17 and...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;][span style='text-decoration: line-through;]Ok, there's a bug in the stats which needs to be fixed.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;][span style='text-decoration: line-through;]When you change comps, it loses the filter settings- therefore, returns no players!
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Everything is fixed. Nothing to see here!
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Major ins and outs are-
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]INS: Rampe, J. Thomas, Siposs, Gray, Watts, Kerridge, Stringer, Macrae, Daw, Sierakowski, Karnezis, Paparone, Docherty

OUTS: Varcoe, Pavlich, Frost, Kommer, Kavanagh, Mitchell, Kreuzer, Patton,

xInt: Toumpas, Whitfield, Plowman, Stringer, Sierakowski, Karnezis, Paparone






Sydney vs. Geelong

Friday April 19th, 7:50pm

SCG
SYDNEY

B: L.Roberts-Thomson, H.Grundy, N.Smith

HB: M.Mattner, T.Richards, N.Malceski

C: R.O'Keefe, K.Jack, L.Jetta

HF: J.Bolton, S.Reid, D.Hannebery

F: M.Pyke, A.Goodes, B.McGlynn

Foll: S.Mumford, J.Kennedy, J.McVeigh

I/C: T.Armstrong, M.Morton, L.Parker, D.Rampe

Emerg: C.Bird, A.Everitt, J.White
In: M.Morton , D.Rampe

Out: C.Bird (omitted) , A.Everitt (omitted)
GEELONG

B: T.Hunt, T.Lonergan, C.Enright

HB: J.Corey, H.Taylor, A.Mackie

C: M.Duncan, J.Bartel, B.Smedts

HF: P.Chapman, J.Podsiadly, S.Motlop

F: T.West, T.Hawkins, S.Johnson

Foll: M.Blicavs, J.Selwood, M.Stokes

I/C J.Rivers, J.Caddy, G.Horlin-Smith, A.Christensen

Emerg: J.Murdoch, M.Brown, J.Thurlow
In: J.Rivers, G.Horlin-Smith

Out: T.Varcoe (Shoulder), J.Murdoch (Omitted)
Hawthorn vs. Fremantle

Saturday April 20th, 1:45pm

Aurora Stadium
HAWTHORN

FREMANTLE

B: L.Spurr 34, Z.Dawson 3, M.Johnson 37

HB: N.Suban 8, L.McPharlin 18, P.Duffield 41

C: T.Mzungu 13, R.Crowley 15, C.Pearce 46

HF: M.De Boer 9, K.Bradley 26, N.Fyfe 7

F: H.Ballantyne 1, C.Mayne23, M.Walters10

Foll: J.Griffin12, D.Mundy 16, S.Hill 32

I/C: M.Barlow 21, D.Pearce 6, C.Sutcliffe 33, L.Neale 27...
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;]Cox's dominant 171 SC points last week highlighted the benefit of being able to play around with our captain and vice-captain choices during the course of the round. Of course, that requires us to have a non-playing player on our team. Cox's score, and the loophole introduced this season, show us the benefit of perhaps identifying two players on our team who ought be handed the captaincy.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;]Let's see if the numbers help us decide &amp;hellip;
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Ablett v. Port Adelaide
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 9 2012: 111 SC points, 25 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 5 2011: 109 SC points, 26 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 4 2010: 145 SC points, 37 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 13 2009: 206 SC points, 36 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 12 2008: 161 SC points, 32 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 1 2008: 127 SC points, 24 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]GF 2007: 108 SC points, 19 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 21 2007: 104 SC points, 27 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 9 2007: 112 SC points, 25 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Average is 131 SC points with 28 disposals.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Note: Fantastic record against Port Adelaide - when he was playing with Geelong. Has only scored 109 and 111 against them since his move to Gold Coast. Most recently tagged by Cornes who is averaging 135 in his first three games this season. Has also been tagged by Thomas or Sujan/Cassisi (in his huge game of 206). After starting the season with a bang, has only managed poor scores of 99 and 112 in his past two games.
<p...
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]The diversity of the fantasy football landscape has changed massively this year. From 2 main comps and the Sportsbet being a clear 2nd tier, we've moved into a world with a Centrebet and Sportal upping their prizes, and Sportsbet still being a 2nd tier.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]What we also have is completely new entrants to the market.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Stadium Sportsrun multiple small comps every week for cash prizes. Basically, a bunch of sprints rather than a marathon, which let's you pick up cash prizes along the way.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Anyways, TS are running one of these quick comps this weekend, over the Hawthorn/Fremantle game. Pretty tough game if you ask me.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]What we also have, is a $250 prize to the winner of said comp. So get in there and let's get some more TSers in there.
<p...