TooSerious

So how did we get to this disaster of 1935 points you may ask? Exactly as below:



Defence:
Goddard 97
Vlastuin 72 (Emergency, captain's loophole)
Dixon 52
Heath 44
Stevenson 42
Terlich 39
Midfield:
Pendlebury 161 VC (Captain's loophole 322)
Dangerfield 173
Ablett 137
O'Meara 90
Cotchin 76
Wines 74
Neade 64
Viney 48
Ruckmen:
Cox 126
Leuenberger 83
Forwards:
Rockliff 93
Kennedy 80
Macaffer 67
Zorko 63
Westhoff 48
Franklin 45
Bench:
Heppell 0
Goodes 0 Captain
Gibbs 0
Crouch 0
Gawn 53 (Emergency)
Currie 0
Dwyer 53 (Emergency)
Rowe 0



In the defence we had our share of defencageddon, with a couple of donuts on the pine, so no missed potential points, but a nice opportunity to use the loophole without the risk of the captain” playing (ala Macaffer!). We did however not get a single backman break the ton, which is more than a bit disappointing.



In the mids we put the VC on Pendles, as did a fair portion of coaches, and jumped at the chance for his 322 points, so immediately employed the loophole. Had have we not taken his score, Gazza would have done his part, with a strong 137 points nothing to be sneezed at (says the guy who's currently suffering from allergies and sneezing at absolutely everything and anything!!!). We also shared the defence donuts on our midfield pine, with Gibbs sitting out, next to Crouch, so no missed potential points on selections so far. We did however miss some potential points in captain selection, with Danger finally showing us some of the form we expected to see, with a team top score of 173 points - so 12 potential points missed there. None of our other mids topped the ton, so even more disappointment for us.



Onto the rucks, where big Cox pumped out 126 points, with Leuey a little short of expectations on 83, however he still outscored Gawn and Currie's donut, so no missed points here.



It may have been the week of...

<p style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;]When I look back at 2013, I imagine that round 6 will stand out as that week that officially killed my season.
<p style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;]What an absolute killer of a week!
<p style='font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit;]now, since I've been out all weekend, the review will be late, perhaps non existent, but I would still love to hear how it's treated you.


That said, Shenanigans has been a bit of a boss, getting in the Sunday reviews! Legend mate!



<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;]Sydney Swans V Brisbane Lions
<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;] font-size: 13px;]Sydney by 60
<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;]
<p style='color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; background-color: #ffffff;]The first of three very one-sided Sunday games saw the reigning premiers romping it in over the Lions. It also saw me achieve a painful SECOND on StadiumSport.com, which almost makes me forget my woeful 2022. Almost.The biggest talking point for me this weekend is the push/hands in the (insert random body part)&amp;rdquo; in marking contests. They only seem to happen when a goal could be kicked as a result of the contest, and are not being adjudicated consistently (IMHO). The game, she is a changing, and not for the better. 95% of...

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Yep, #Defencageddon.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Get into theChatand tell us your woes.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Or get in there and talk footy and watch the games. Maybe with a beer, or a glass of wine. Some chips. Heck, maybe order in a pizza and make a night of it.

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]I imagine we're all ducking and covering and preparing for DEFENCAGEDDON!!!
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Join in theChatas the teams are announced. You never know, maybe they won't be so bad to us.
COLLINGWOOD v ST KILDA, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm AEST, Friday 3 May
COLLINGWOOD

B: N.Brown B.Reid B.Macaffer

HB: M.Clarke H.Shaw H.O'Brien

C: S.Sidebottom D.Swan D.Thomas

HF: J.Elliott T.Cloke Q.Lynch

F: B.Kennedy T.Goldsack S.Dwyer

R: D.Jolly S.Pendlebury J.Blair

I/C: A.Krakouer J.Witts J.Thomas P.Seedsman

EMG: A.Fasolo J.Russell M.Williams

IN: Krakouer, Jolly, J Thomas, Witts, Kennedy

OUT: Toovey, Hudson, Russell, Fasolo, Sinclair
ST KILDA

B: Wright Fisher Gilbert

HB: Dempster Roberton Geary

C: Dal Santo Hayes Murdoch

HF: Armitage Stanley Montagna

F: Saunders Riewoldt Koschitzke

R: McEvoy Jones Steven

I/C: Ross Saad Milne Siposs

EMG: Hickey Newnes Webster

IN: S.Milne, A.Siposs

OUT: T.Dennis-Lane (omitted), T.Lee (Achilles)
ESSENDON v GWS GIANTS, Etihad Stadium, 1.45pm AEST, Saturday 4 May
ESSENDON

B: M.Hibberd T.Pears C.Dempsey

HB: K.Hardingham C.Hooker B.Goddard

C: M.Baguley J.Watson D.Zaharakis

HF: J.Merrett S.Crameri J.Melksham

F: A.Davey S.Gumbleton B.Stanton

R: T.Bellchambers B.Howlett N.Kommer

I/C: H.Hocking L.Jetta D.Hille D.Myers

EMG: E.Kavanagh N.O'Brien N.Lovett-Murray

IN: Jetta, Pears, Melksham, Kommer

OUT: Winderlich, Colyer, Heppell, Carlisle
GWS GIANTS

B: A.Kennedy T.Mohr J.Bruce

HB: A.Corr S.Gilham T.Greene

C: T.Scully C.Ward J.Townsend

HF: R.Palmer J.Cameron A.Tomlinson

F: D.Smith S.Frost T.Adams...

There's a discrepancy between SCGold breakevens and our breakevens here on TooSerious. It's one of the most often reported 'bugs' which is actually a feature.

This is the formula you see everywhere to explain how the breakeven number is derived.

((Price/5350) * 3) - Their last two scores.

So, we can run that through with Ablett last week to determine the breakeven from SCGold.

((681200/5350) * 3) - 131 - 112 = 139.

All good and fine.

BUT. Last week, Ablett scored a 160, 21 points above his SCGold predicted breakeven yet what did his salary do? It went DOWN $1,100. (You can see it on Abletts score chart here- He scored well above his 'Break even score'.

For the record, you can check out the TS prediction for Ablett last week here. A 165. Not too shabby, hey?

So why does TooSerious get it so right, and why does SCGold get it wrong?

Well, it all comes down to one important fact. In each individual week, the total salary of every player adds up to the exact same figure. Take a minute to think about that.

In a perfect world, where everybody was getting their averages, the above model would work a treat.

The problem is, that doesn't happen. AFL isn't a static game where week after week, players score their average otherwise this fantasy football lark would be easy.

What tends to happen is that rookies or mid priced players having a breakout year get better. They munch up more of the score and salary movements. You also have players who scored highly last year, who haven't played yet this year, further skewing the results of the total player...

<p style='text-align: justify;]This week, Ablett plays on Saturday night against Fremantle at Metricon. Prior to the games on Saturday night, four games will be played: Collingwood v. St Kilda, Essendon v. GWS, North Melbourne v. Port Adelaide and Adelaide v. Hawthorn.
<p style='text-align: justify;]
<p style='text-align: justify;]Obvious vice captain candidates from these games would be Watson, Pendlebury and Swan. If we are content to have their scores counted as our captain&amp;rdquo; scores, we can take the captaincy off Ablett and put it onto a non-playing player whose team has yet to play during the round - a prime candidate would be Gibbs because Carlton play on Sunday afternoon.
<p style='text-align: justify;]
<p style='text-align: justify;]Let's look at the numbers and, for the first time for quite a while, we have someone other than Ablett leading the averages:
<p style='text-align: justify;]
Judd v. Melbourne

Rd 9 2012: 80 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 20 2011: 163 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 10 2011: 155 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 11 2010: 109 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 132 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 167 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 166 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 9 2006: 91 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 13 2006: 74 SC points, 16 disposals

Average is 126 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Great average against Melbourne with four scores over 150 in nine games. Averaging 139 in last seven games against them. Tagged by McKenzie in last three games. In poor form at the moment - averaging 98 for the season and coming off scores of 105 and 60.

Ablett v. Fremantle

Rd 11 2011: 185 SC points, 34 disposals
SF 2010: 119 SC points, 36 disposals
Rd 3 2010: 157 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 22 2009: 146 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 12 2009: 98 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 15 2008: 81 SC points, 13 disposals
Rd 6 2008: 62 SC points, 15 disposals
Rd 17 2007: 114 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 8 2007: 90 SC...

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 16.363636016845703px;]This week has been a harsh one in fantasy football, with many teams' backlines looking in all sorts of trouble and the upgrade season starting to get into full swing. As usual there are a few surprise inclusions, a few nice rookie options and some very nice names on the waiting list.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 16.363636016845703px;]Michael Hibberd is the Best Buy for this week, and if the photo's are anything to go by the Dons may have taken things a bit too far with the sports science side, but the results on-field are certainly there. Yes I am joking, as far as I know anyway, and while Hibberd may not in fact have two extra arms he does have a very nice SC average at a great price.
<div>


Now onto the Best Buys.



DEFENSE

ROOKIES




Rory Laird (ADE) DEF 115.9k 57 +44k

Laird has joined the growing list of Rory's getting around the AFL these days, and is on the bubble for the crows and looking at a decent boost to his price after his next game. His average isn't particularly impressive, but so far has been getting the job done.





Sam Docherty (BRI) DEF 115.9k 54 +40k

Docherty is in a similar position to Laird, as his job security remains fairly unknown and his average not much over 50, but at this stage with only limited rookies coming through just getting named may see him end up in a few more squads after this week.




MID-PRICERS




Charlie DIXON (GCS) DEF 477.6k 115...

As I said, it was an improved round for the donors, our biggest score of 2324 points. We made no trades prior to round 5, so had the same lineup as the week before, aside from a couple of substitutions. The team itself looked like this:



Defenders:
Dixon 142
Goddard 94
Gibbs 65
Goodes 67
Heath 70
Stevenson 87
Midfielders:
Ablett 160
Pendlebury 136 (VC loophole 272)
Cotchin 144
Heppell 103
Wines 82
Dangerfield 89
Dwyer 38
O'Meara 119 (playing emergency)
Rucks:
Cox 105
Leuenberger 118
Forwards:
Westhoff 53
Kennedy 124
Rockliff 113
Franklin 57
Zorko 151
Neade 71



Bench:
Pittard 0
Terlich 77 (emergency)
Viney 0
Crouch 0 (Captain loophole)
Rowe 44 (emergency)
Currie 0
Macaffer 59 (emergency)
Karnezis 0



Down back Dixon did really well, with his 142 points, the only one of our backmen to break the ton. We also had Terlich on the pine, scoring more than three of our playing backmen, costing us a potential 12 points.



In the midfield we tried the captains loophole, and when we saw Pendlebury's 136 we decided not to be greedy and take it. Like most coaches in this situation, we put Crouch on field, and picked up O'Meara's ton as an emergency. This did mean that we missed out on a potential 24 points, by not selecting Ablett as our captain.



Our rucks did their job, both tonning up, with Rowe also scoring well enough to keep going up in value.



The forwards saw a huge score from the man who's been disappointing up until now, Dayne Zorko. His 151 was the second biggest score in our side. The rest of our forwards did really well, except for Westhoff, who came crashing back to earth, and Franklin, who was held goal-less for apparently only around the 8th time in his career (or something like that). Although Macaffer on the pine outscored both of these guys, we would never have picked him over them, however there was a potential 6 points we missed there.



Our total...

Another week of<a style='font-size: 14px;' href='http://goo.gl/JTxH7' target='blank' onclick='return false;]StadiumSport[/url]! This week, we've got a $300 prize on the West Coast Eagles vs the Western Bulldogs!

Had a couple of locals take out the prizes in recent weeks, and would love to see more of it! So make sure you friend me (Les Wales), so that I can cheer you on and stuff!

And lets get a massive number of teams in there this week- would love to crack 1k players!

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]It's a simple contest. Drop in a comment on this post before 8pm AEST tonight to be in the running to win a copy of Kevin Sheedy's book,The Long March
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]I'll be doing the random number generator thing, so drop in a comment. It can be fantasy relevant, maybe your backline is stuffed? Maybe you need advise? Want to offer advise? Perhaps your cat has done something internet worthy that you need to get out there? Maybe the weather was just too cold this morning.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Honestly, I don't mind- get a comment in and you're in the draw!!