TooSerious

<div>The Analyst fromDTInsider.comtakes a look at some of the commonly quoted myths around fantasy football, and quietly destroy them with statistics.





Look in any Dream Team forum and it won't take you long before you find a poster quoting some kind of statistic to prove their point about a certain scenario. You hear it in relation to raw stats, to trends, to just about anything.


The trouble with this situation is that unless you're prepared to recreate the work, as long as the statistic makes some kind of sense most people will accept it and move on.



That's not my style.



This article will work our way through a few of the more common myths and truths and add some detail to the discussion to work out how things actually look using Dream Team statistics over the last 5 seasons, rather relying on unsubstantiated opinion.




1. 'AN AVERAGE PLAYER WILL SCORE X DREAM TEAM POINTS A YEAR'







After trending upwards from 2008 to 2010, the last two years have seen this ease back a little. Those two years have seen the introduction of two new teams, the introduction of the green and red vests, and a dramatic increase in the number of substitutions per team - so it might take another season or so to determine if the recent downturn is permanent or not. 2013 is off to a very slow start in terms of DT scoring - well below any yearlong average in recent times, and also well below any first three rounds in the same period.



Just on those vests; data for 2012 suggests that a player not receiving a vest will average 73.37 points per game. Those receiving the green and red vests averaged 30.17 and...

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;][span style='text-decoration: line-through;]Ok, there's a bug in the stats which needs to be fixed.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;][span style='text-decoration: line-through;]When you change comps, it loses the filter settings- therefore, returns no players!
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Everything is fixed. Nothing to see here!

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Major ins and outs are-
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]INS: Rampe, J. Thomas, Siposs, Gray, Watts, Kerridge, Stringer, Macrae, Daw, Sierakowski, Karnezis, Paparone, Docherty

OUTS: Varcoe, Pavlich, Frost, Kommer, Kavanagh, Mitchell, Kreuzer, Patton,

xInt: Toumpas, Whitfield, Plowman, Stringer, Sierakowski, Karnezis, Paparone






Sydney vs. Geelong

Friday April 19th, 7:50pm

SCG
SYDNEY

B: L.Roberts-Thomson, H.Grundy, N.Smith

HB: M.Mattner, T.Richards, N.Malceski

C: R.O'Keefe, K.Jack, L.Jetta

HF: J.Bolton, S.Reid, D.Hannebery

F: M.Pyke, A.Goodes, B.McGlynn

Foll: S.Mumford, J.Kennedy, J.McVeigh

I/C: T.Armstrong, M.Morton, L.Parker, D.Rampe

Emerg: C.Bird, A.Everitt, J.White
In: M.Morton , D.Rampe

Out: C.Bird (omitted) , A.Everitt (omitted)
GEELONG

B: T.Hunt, T.Lonergan, C.Enright

HB: J.Corey, H.Taylor, A.Mackie

C: M.Duncan, J.Bartel, B.Smedts

HF: P.Chapman, J.Podsiadly, S.Motlop

F: T.West, T.Hawkins, S.Johnson

Foll: M.Blicavs, J.Selwood, M.Stokes

I/C J.Rivers, J.Caddy, G.Horlin-Smith, A.Christensen

Emerg: J.Murdoch, M.Brown, J.Thurlow
In: J.Rivers, G.Horlin-Smith

Out: T.Varcoe (Shoulder), J.Murdoch (Omitted)
Hawthorn vs. Fremantle

Saturday April 20th, 1:45pm

Aurora Stadium
HAWTHORN

FREMANTLE

B: L.Spurr 34, Z.Dawson 3, M.Johnson 37

HB: N.Suban 8, L.McPharlin 18, P.Duffield 41

C: T.Mzungu 13, R.Crowley 15, C.Pearce 46

HF: M.De Boer 9, K.Bradley 26, N.Fyfe 7

F: H.Ballantyne 1, C.Mayne23, M.Walters10

Foll: J.Griffin12, D.Mundy 16, S.Hill 32

I/C: M.Barlow 21, D.Pearce 6, C.Sutcliffe 33, L.Neale 27...

<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;]Cox's dominant 171 SC points last week highlighted the benefit of being able to play around with our captain and vice-captain choices during the course of the round. Of course, that requires us to have a non-playing player on our team. Cox's score, and the loophole introduced this season, show us the benefit of perhaps identifying two players on our team who ought be handed the captaincy.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;]Let's see if the numbers help us decide &amp;hellip;
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<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Ablett v. Port Adelaide
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]


<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 9 2012: 111 SC points, 25 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 5 2011: 109 SC points, 26 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 4 2010: 145 SC points, 37 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 13 2009: 206 SC points, 36 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 12 2008: 161 SC points, 32 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 1 2008: 127 SC points, 24 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]GF 2007: 108 SC points, 19 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 21 2007: 104 SC points, 27 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Rd 9 2007: 112 SC points, 25 disposals
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Average is 131 SC points with 28 disposals.
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]
<p style='margin-bottom: 0cm;]Note: Fantastic record against Port Adelaide - when he was playing with Geelong. Has only scored 109 and 111 against them since his move to Gold Coast. Most recently tagged by Cornes who is averaging 135 in his first three games this season. Has also been tagged by Thomas or Sujan/Cassisi (in his huge game of 206). After starting the season with a bang, has only managed poor scores of 99 and 112 in his past two games.
<p...

<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]The diversity of the fantasy football landscape has changed massively this year. From 2 main comps and the Sportsbet being a clear 2nd tier, we've moved into a world with a Centrebet and Sportal upping their prizes, and Sportsbet still being a 2nd tier.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]What we also have is completely new entrants to the market.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Stadium Sportsrun multiple small comps every week for cash prizes. Basically, a bunch of sprints rather than a marathon, which let's you pick up cash prizes along the way.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]Anyways, TS are running one of these quick comps this weekend, over the Hawthorn/Fremantle game. Pretty tough game if you ask me.
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]
<p style='font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 18px;]What we also have, is a $250 prize to the winner of said comp. So get in there and let's get some more TSers in there.
<p...

As I said, round 3 was a disaster, with a lowly 2023 points. That ranked us at 104,234 for the round, and left us languishing at 64,493 for the season.



We made two trades leading into round 3, dropping Mitchell and Watts, and bringing in Dwyer and Dixon. Mitchell scored 35 points, lost $5,200 and has now been dropped back to the rookie list, while Watts didn't even play. In return Dwyer scored 68 points and rose $74,800 and Dixon scored 77 points, rose $42,700 and looks like he's injured. On pure round 3 scores and price changes we're well infront, time will tell if it was the right move, but it does look like it.



The team breakdown went like this:
Defenders
Gibbs 95
Dixon 77
Goddard 108
Heppell 93
Pittard 41
Stevenson 49
Midfielders
Pendlebury 124 - Captain 248
Ablett 112 VC
Cotchin 139
Goodes 85
Dangerfield 84
Viney 71
O'Meara 40
Crouch 50
Ruckmen
Cox 171
Roughead 71
Forwards
Kennedy 136
Rockliff 88
Franklin 121
Dwyer 68
Zorko 67
Varcoe 9
Bench
Heath 77 E
Terlich 62
Wines 121 E
Neade 76
Rowe 77 E
Currie 0
Macaffer 0
Karnezis 0 E



Down back we clearly made the wrong bench choices, with both Heath and Terlich outscoring Pittard and Stevenson by a combined 49 points.
In the mids we had Wines on the pine, which only&amp;rdquo; cost us 81 points over selecting O'Meara.
For the rucks, although we wouldn't pick it, selecting Rowe over Roughie would have given us an extra 6 points.
As for the forwards, the injury to Varcoe did cost both him and us, and with hindsight we could have had Neade on the field and scored an extra 68 points.
More astute captains selections could have given us the loophole on Cox, which would have netted and extra 47 points.
All up theres a total of 251 potential points that we missed out on in round 3 - very costly indeed.



As for our leagues, disaster there too, winning only 1 of the five! I won't go into depth on our leagues just yet, as...

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<div><strong style='font-weight: bold;]MOUNT BUGGERY DISAPPOINTMENTS [/b][span style='font-size: 10px;](avg. 1321)<strong style='font-weight: bold;]vs SARAH ISLAND SAVAGES[/b][span style='font-size: 10px;](1303)[span style='font-weight: bold; font-size: 10px;]






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<strong style='font: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;]WARBURTON WANDERERS[/b][span style='font-size: 10px;](1162)vs TARWIN LOWER PIGS[span style='font-size: 10px;](1251)



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<strong style='font: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;]MILIKAPATI SNAKES[/b][span style='font-size: 10px;](1124)vsWOY WOY WIZARDS[span style='font-size: 10px;](1069)



<strong style='font: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;][/b]


GLENROWAN GUNSLINGERS[span style='font-size: 10px;](1245)vsPOOWONG POTOROOS[span style='font-size: 10px;](1260)



<strong style='font: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;]<strong style='font: inherit;][/b]

MALLACOOTA MAGICIANS[/b][span style='font-size: 10px;](1415)vsTORRUMBARRY THUNDA[span style='font-size: 10px;](1326)



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Three sides remain undefeated at the top of the ORFFA ladder after Relton Roberts Round - Round 3 - of action over the weekend.
And, aptly a few players channeled the brilliance of the aforementioned Mr Roberts, scoring closer to 0 than harbouring any delusions of adequacy.
Anyway, onto the review:

Birdsville 1545 defeated Marble Bar 1134

The Battlers had a Round 3 party, and every one of its players were invited, as Birdsville kicked the sweep against Marble Bar 1545-1134.

Nine players topped the ton for Birdsville, led again by McEvoy (139) and the frighteningly good midfield of Murphy, Rich, Wells, Moloney. Big Jono Brown enjoyed a welcome return to form with 129.

For Marble Bar, Paddy Ryder shaded his opponent in Ben McEvoy with 145 points, while Callan Ward, Rhys Stanley and Jack Steven also notched tons.
But Birdsville's greater depth shone through overall, with the Misfits forced to play Banana Firrito OOP up forward.

Gariwerd 1330 defeated Whitsundays 1256

Coach Anthak is celebrating after the boys from down Halls Gap way celebrated their first win, an impressive 74-point triumph over the Warriors.

Mighty performances from Brett Deledio (140), Chris Masten (141) and Bundy Christensen (108) led an even across-the-board effort for the Cockies.

For the Warriors, who were far from disgraced, six players topped 100 - led by rookie sensation Ollie Wines (121) and Travis Boak (134).
However the match was marred by a serious knee injury to the General, Jono Patton, who will miss a lengthy stretch of football. League coaches I am sure will join to wish Patton the best as he recovers over coming months.

Darraweit Guim 1191 defeated Larrikin Lagoon 1178

In the close, low scoring game, the Blimps held on for a nail biting 13-point win over the newcomers from the Lagoon.

The Paddock faithful were in shocked silence after injuries to McPharlin and Newnes saw both red-vested early; the former...

[span style='font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;]Sub Notifications! How do I get them?



Given I don't have my team entered into My Teams (worst wife ever) I thought I'd enter them in and



answer that much asked question - how do I get sub notifications??! With pictures!



First things first- What are sub notifications?



Basically, you put your team into MyTeams and we send you an email to let you know if any players on any of your teams have been green vested or made a late out, giving you time to get in there and fix your team rather than suffering through a sub-affected score.



This works for SuperCoach (obviously) but also AFL Fantasy, Centerbet, SportsBet and Sportal. We should be getting something up for Stadium Fantasy soon as well to give you guys the edge at winning the fast money over there.



How to get them?



To start, you need to get your team entered into My Teams and uploaded. This can be any flavour of fantasy football that tickles your fancy (Centrebet, AFL Fantasy, SuperCoach, Sportal or Sportsbet) but I'll be entering in my SuperCoach team.



How do I enter my team into My Teams?



1. Go to 'My Teams' on the menu bar above.
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<img alt='' width='300px' src='/Portals/0/User%20Images/MyTeams%20(1).png[/img]
2. Click 'Select a Team' button and select 'Create New Team'

(picture)
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<img alt='' width='300px' src='/Portals/0/User%20Images/Create%20New%20Team%20(2).png[/img]
3. Fill in the form! Put in the name of your team, the competition it's in (Centrebet, Dreamteam, Sportsbet, Sportal or Supercoach). With 'Type' you can create watchlists or play with the donor league if you're a donor but we're just going to create a supercoach team.
<p >
<img alt='' width='300px' src='/Portals/0/User%20Images/The%20Jellybeans!%20(4).png[/img]
4. Click 'Create New Team'.



You've now created a team!



You'll...

So Hornsy's gone awol as he's taking the search for Ibbotson to heart.

So erm, in the meantime I'll just post up results etc and he can fill in the rest when he feels like it.

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<p style='font: inherit;]<strong style='font: inherit;][/b]
<p style='font: inherit;]<strong style='font: inherit;]WOY WOY WIZARDS[/b] 1144 DEF BY <strong style='font: inherit;]SARAH ISLAND SAVAGES [/b][span style='font: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;]1304<strong style='font: inherit;]

[/b]
Heroes for Savages: JP Kennedy (136), JJ Kennedy (136), Goddard (108), Christensen (108), Taylor (103)

Villains: Frawley (23), Simpson (42), McGrath (54), Chaplin (56)

Heroes for Wizards: Hodge (122), K.Cornes (117), C.Pearce (113), Montagna (102)
Villains: Bird (14), Fletcher (30), Whitfield (31), S.Martin (46)
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<p style='font: inherit;]<strong style='font: inherit;]WARBURTON WANDERERS[/b] 1210 DEF POOWONG POTOROOS 1201
Heroes for Wanderers: Boak (134), Griffen (119), Hartlett (118), Murphy (114), Johnson (107)

Villains: Higgins (32), Kreuzer (35), Scully (42), Bailey (50)

Heroes for Potoroos: Darling (141), Ablett (112), Malceski (108), Hawkins (107)
Villains: Jo. Roughead (26), Dickson (29), Crouch (50), Garland (59)

<p style='font: inherit;]<strong style='font: inherit;]<strong style='font: inherit; background-color: #ffffff;][/b]

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<p...