TooSerious

For those who take it way too seriously

Should betting agencies offer odds on teams again this year, we could be looking at a lot more value than last year.  Why, do you ask?  Just as this season is so close in nature with the top 6 teams fighting for the top 4, and the next 6 for the final two places, so too is the closeness in the count for most votes at a lot of clubs.  Last year the following were absolute certanties: Adelaide, Carlton, Essendon, Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney & Western Bulldogs.  Based on the current overall medal, there are a number of clubs where the favourite is not currently leading according to my count: Swan offering better odds than Pendlebury, GWS is a mystery, Petrie, Swallow & Adams are all offering more than Wells, Pearce is favourite at Port and unlikely to get up, Deledio offering better odds than Cotchin, Dal Santo a chance over Hayes and should have reasonable odds, Jack offering better odds than Kennedy, as is Scott Selwood over Priddis.

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North Melbourne v Carlton

3 - Drew Petrie
2 - Chris Judd
1 - Daniel Wells
The rest: A. Carrazzo, A. Swallow, L. Hansen, M. Murphy

Fremantle v Melbourne

3 - Matthew Pavlich
2 - David Mundy
1 - Clancee Pearce
The rest: M. Walters, H. Ballantyne, M. Barlow, C. Mayne, S. Martin, S. Hill

Essendon v Port Adelaide

3 - Jobe Watson
2 - Ben Howlett
1 - Tom Bellchambers
The rest: L. Jetta, D. Heppell, S. Gumbleton, R. Dyson, T. Boak, D. Hille

Gold Coast v Richmond

3 - Gary Ablett
2 - Trent Cotchin
1 - Brett Deledio
The rest: H Bennell, T. McKenzie, J. Riewoldt

Collingwood v Geelong

3 - D. Beams
2 - S. Pendlebury
1 - D. Swan
The rest: S. Johnson, J. Kelly, H. Shaw

St Kilda v Brisbane

3 - Lenny Hayes
2 - Clinton Jones
1 - Ben McEvoy
The rest: L. Montagna, S. Black, D. Armitage, S. Milne

Adelaide v Greater Western Sydney

3 - Bernie Vince
2 - Matthew Wright
1 - Scott Thompson
The rest: J. Porplyzia, S. Jacobs, C. Ward, B. Reilly, I....
We had a couple of nailbiters this round with no less than 4 matches going down to the wire and decided by less than 30 points. The story of the round though was one particular upset which I’ll go into below. Full match results and writeup after the break, now with POTY votes included!<!--more-->

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WOY WOY WIZARDS 1264 Def TARWIN LOWER PIGS 1252

After writing about Woy Woy’s 8 week losing streak in the preview, it has now been broken! The closest match of the round was decided by only 12 points, and lifts the Wizards off the bottom of the ladder. Pearce (117) knocked up his first ton for the side, with usual suspects Lake (124), Black (117), Joey (114) and Jolly (109) pumping out triple figures. Let’s hope Blacky can string together more than a couple of games.

Not even the return of the great Scott Pendlebury (132) could save the Pigs from defeat. The Porpoise (128) dismantled the young Giants with his second century, while ROK (142) made a late charge on Sunday afternoon to try and get over the line, but with only 3 tons the consistency of the Wizards outfit got across the line.

3 votes – Ryan O’Keefe (Pigs)
2 votes – Scott Pendlebury (Pigs)
1 vote – Jason Porplyzia (Pigs)

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QUEENSTOWN QUOLLS 1245 Def by POOWONG POTOROOS 1271

No sign of the late withdrawals this week with the Potoroos just sneaking across the line. There were many success stories at Poowong led by high draft picks Ablett (133) and SJ (148), but it was Clint Jones (129) that has been hailed the saviour this week after being picked up in the midseason draft. McKenzie (107) came in as a close second with his first ton for the year, along with Thompson (118), Sewell (104) and Murphy (100) also in the club. Jamar (12) a worry with yet another injury, and it didn’t look much...
Firstly, sorry this is a day late! Rather busy-ish Sunday and by the time I got back it was evening time and the race was on again! So this is a recap of the next seven stages from 7-12. The race went over all terrain as we had breakaways win, time-trials, mountainous terrain and even a sprint victory mixed with echelons. As expected Team Sky were absolutely dominant. I’ll make up for the lateness with an extra-long report and of course a wrap up of the fantasy games. Read on below!

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Team_Sky.jpg"><img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Team_Sky.jpg" alt="" width="450" />[/url]

Stage 7

So the first main stage for the climbers as well as anyone with general classification aspirations. A break of 7 got away but they were never given a lot of room as Sky and BMC controlled the peloton for most of the day. As it got close Garmin came to the front to ramp up the pace for their man Dan Martin, but also to get some pride back after a disastrous first week. At 15km to go though, the Sky train arrived on the front and it was EBH drilling it. Jurgen Van Den Broeck had a disaster at about 10km out as his chain slipped, effectively ruining his chances of being in the peloton with the leaders.

Almost as soon as the 6km steep climb started the break were caught and it was left to the Dodger (Michael Rogers) to take up proceedings and the pace he set popped out many riders including Levi Leipheimer, Tony Martin and the yellow jersey Fabian Cancellara. When little mor than half the climb was to be done it was Richie Porte’s turn, with his swinging Tassie necklace, to take to the front and he proceeded to thin out an already elite bunch. By the he swung off there was only 5 riders left, Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome, Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali and Rein Taaramae.

As the red kite for one ‘k left appeared the young Estonian finally cracked and it was just a...
Another week is closing out as we drift another week closer to the finals.

Let us know how youve gone this week, or, if youve gone poorly, how good what that KHunt goal!

Or yanno, if youve done poorly, and youre a Richmond fan- I feel for ya mate- struggled through a week like that last week. Certainly makes for a tough Monday!

(Full review over the break)

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North Melbourne vs Carlton

Result: North Melbourne by 53, 24.5.149 to 14.12.86

Gosh, how good was Norths kicking? Actually, how good are North at the moment? Seriously, at their current rate, they are a shoe-in for the #8 spot, with the Suns and the GWS Percentage boosters to come.

A lot has to be said about their kicking though, it was simply deadly. Deadly in the first, when they strung 7 straight, and deadly in the third when they put on 6 straight.

Leading the was was Petrie. The star put on 7 big ones for a mighty 168SC. and was SUBBED OUT AT 3 QTR TIME!! GUN!

Wells did nicely with a 26 touch, 131SC. While Swallow managed to crack the ton with a 109SC.

Over on the Blues side, Judd starred, with 36 touches and a 159SC. Hes also made the villians list for a pretty disgraceful effort with Norths Patch Adams, deliberately ( allegedly ) dislocating his arm.

Carrazzo managed a 118SC, while Murphy picked up a 112SC on his return.

With only 7 tons scored across the game, their werent many villians, but a token vest at Gibbs for his 74SC, and one for Kreuzer for just 6 touches and a 67SC should do the trick.

Heroes: Petrie, Wells, Judd
Villians: Judd, Gibbs, Kreuzer

Melbourne vs Fremantle

Result: Fremantle by 34, 18.9.117 to 12.11.83

Fremantle went bang. Melbourne led the game for 3 full quarters. Then Fremantle went bang. Kicked 7.3 in the final quarter to just 3 behinds to run out a match that really could have finished poorly for them.

Pearce top scored...
Greetings to my esteemed ORFFA colleagues and thanks to you all for your patience this week. Nunawading crack it for their first win this week, which must have the coaching staff at Whitsundays worried as they are now only percentage away from the wooden spoon. The Nungas continue on their winning ways at Darraweit in a match that apparently had some world class brawling by the fans in the outer.

Continue over the break to see more of this intense, tough and entirely imaginary football league .......<!--more-->

Marble Bar 1250 lost to Birdsville 1325

A vital win away for the Battlers which sees them move back into finals contention. Very little separating the middle of the ladder teams though, which gives the Misfits some solace as they drink their cares away again.

Gariwerd 1257 defeated Whitsundays 1088

The Cockies with a routine win over an again disappointing Whitsundays.  The cocktail and spa training regime of the Warriors surely must be coming into question after another insipid effort.

Namatjira 1341 defeated Darraweit Guim 1228

A good game of footy which degenerated into mixed martial arts in the crowd toward the end after a Nungas fan insulted big Ivans hair style. Namatjira still mathematical possibilities to make the eight if you do some creative accounting. The Guim need to regroup after a couple of tough weeks.

Nunawading 1044 defeated Powletts Plains 908

Our pensive dinosaur will be wishing that he had tear ducts after Nuna get the chockies at Springvale rd. Andy may only need another couple of wins to avoid the wooden spoon. Buddy down with a hammy in the last quarter not doing the Packers any favours either.

Waikikamoocow 1182 lost to Far Kew 1229

The frogs suprise everyone (including their coaching staff, no doubt) by hopping over to NZ for a good away win. The Incorrigibles shouldnt be discouraged though (and given their name, you wouldnt think so) as they are still well in...
Not long now. Dont forget to jump into the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10251040&process=live">live chat over the weekend.[/url]

That said, with the battle of attrition well underway,

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I can honestly say that Id love to see a little of this over the weekend.

<img src="http://chzgifs.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/gumbyisveryangryp2.gif" />
Wow, lots of ins and outs this week, Franklin, combined with Martin will test a lot of forward lines, but for those who have him, thank goodness SJ is back in the squad.

Tippett has also been named, but after watching Buddy last week, I could definitely see him being pulled from the squad.

Ins: Murphy, Couch, Redden, SJ, Pendlebury, Darley, Hargrave
Outs: Magner, Ryder, Paine, Williams, Bugg, McDonald, Franklin, Shuey

Full teams over the break

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<h3>North Melbourne v Carlton</h3>
ES &#8211; Fri Jul 13, 7:50pm
North Melbourne
B: Scott McMahon, Scott Thompson, Michael Firrito

HB: Shaun Atley, Nathan Grima, Jamie Macmillan

C: Ryan Bastinac, Daniel Wells, Liam Anthony

HF: Lindsay Thomas, Robert Tarrant, Brent Harvey

F: Lachlan Hansen, Drew Petrie, Matt Campbell

Foll: Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Jack Ziebell

I/C: Leigh Adams, Samuel Wright, Kieran Harper, Sam Gibson
Emg: Ben Cunnington, Cameron Pedersen, Will Sierakowski
In: Scott Thompson

Out:
Luke Delaney
Milestones: Nathan Grima &#8211; 50 games
Carlton
B: Lachlan Henderson, Michael Jamison, Andrew McInnes

HB: Christopher Yarran, Matthew Watson, Aaron Joseph

C: Andrew Collins, Brock McLean, Bryce Gibbs

HF: Mitch Robinson, Andrew Walker, Marc Murphy

F: Jeffrey Garlett, Nick Duigan, Eddie Betts

Foll: Matthew Kreuzer, Chris Judd, Andrew Carrazzo

I/C: Heath Scotland, Dennis Armfield, Zach Tuohy, Edward Curnow
Emg: Jordan Russell, Bret Thornton, Kane Lucas
In: Marc Murphy, Lachlan Henderson

Out: Kade Simpson (Jaw), Shaun Hampson (Knee)
<h3>Melbourne v Fremantle</h3>
[span style="color: #000000;">ES &#8211; Sat Jul 14, 1:45pm
Melbourne
B: Daniel Nicholson, James Frawley, Luke Tapscott

HB: Joel Macdonald, Tom McDonald, Jack...
Round 15 recap: Five huge scores last round all over 150. Leading the way was Cox who had a match winning fourth quarter against North and finished with 215. Following him was Pavlich with 175, Priddis with 170, Rioli with 159 and McVeigh with 152. Ablett? Well he gave us 110 …

So the questions this week are: Ablett? Cox? Injured stars returning in Pendlebury or Murphy? Or recently consistent players such as Swan or Watson?
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Here are the numbers …

Ablett v. Richmond

Rd 17 2011: 127 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 2 2009: 139 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 8 2008: 164 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 18 2007: 133 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 6 2007: 170 SC points, 32 disposals

Average is 147 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Great average against the Tigers. No scores below 127. In relative poor form with scores of 110, 87, 188 and 64 (average of 112 which, of course, is inflated by his huge 188).

Pendlebury v. Geelong

Rd 8 2012: 147 SC points, 30 disposals
GF 2011: 143 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 24 2011: 135 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 8 2011: 109 SC points, 20 disposals
PF 2010: 126 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 19 2010: 110 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 9 2010: 96 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 95 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 141 SC points, 26 disposals
PF 2007: 55 SC points, 13 disposals
Rd 15 2007: 90 SC points, 20 disposals

Average is 113 SC points with 24 disposals.

Note: Solid record(averaging 124 in seven games). Has missed the past five games with a cracked tibia. Had come off scores of 95 (sub affected), 118, 147, 107, 145 and 140.

Watson v. Port Adelaide

Rd 2 2012: 149 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 23 2011: 112 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 7 2010: 120 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 1 2009: 112 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 7 2008: 91 SC points, 21 disposals
Rd 12 2007: 98 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 9 2006: 100 SC points, 24 disposals

Average is 112 SC points with 26 disposals.

Note: Solid record...
Lucky round 13 is upon us, but the fantasy scene has been anything but lucky with numerous players out since the byes with injury and suspension. Who can survive the carnage and keep their cool to come away with the 4 points? Find out below!
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WOY WOY WIZARDS (18th, 1187) vs TARWIN LOWER PIGS (12th, 1198)

POTENTIAL INS: Black, Malceski, Power, Callinan, Doughty, T. McDonald, A. Selwood (Wizards), Pendlebury (Pigs)
OUTS: Hocking (Pigs)

Woy Woy are going through a massive dry spell at the moment with their last win back in Round 4. Malceski should come back this week after being a late non-inclusion, as well as long list of other potential ins – but none are named Hodge. The Pigs are grunting along, but the big news is they welcome back number 1 pick Scott Embleberry this week. Little separates these teams based on average, but you would have to back the Pigs given the Wizards track record. While not favourite for the game, the Wizards new found favouritism for Jaeger has to mean something.

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QUEENSTOWN QUOLLS (11th, 1148) vs POOWONG POTOROOS (5th, 1218)

POTENTIAL INS: Trengove, A. Hall, Grant (Quolls), S. Johnson, R. Murphy, Jamar, Sewell, S.D. Thompson, Mattner (Potoroos)
OUTS: Hampson, Jacobs (Quolls), Lower (Potoroos)

The Quolls have been a bit disappointing since the break, slipping to the second lowest average in the competition while having 2 loses. Hampson will be out for the year, and with no sign of Stephenson and Warnock being stupid in the VFL I’m not sure who they will get to cover. The <del datetime="2012-07-12T11:54:12+00:00">latewithdrawals</del> Potoroos just managed to sneak over the line last week despite all their emergencies getting a call up, but with an impressive list of ins this week I’d watch out! It’s too early to predict a...
This week saw some bad SC news in the form of not just Buddy out for a few weeks, but also Beau (who I coincidentally traded in last week) facing a stint on the sidelines, causing some major headaches for more than a few coaches. Who has cover? Will it be enough or will you lose too many points in the mean-time? A few questions need to be asked, and answered, and hopefully the Best Buys can help with that.

This week my pick of the week is once again two, and they are Yarran and Roughie. Yarran showed last week against the Pies that he is capable of pumping out good games, and at his price he really is perfect cover for any injured or sidelined defenders for a couple of weeks. If he and the Blues can ignore the last 2 months and instead follow last weekends lead then he may even make it as a defensive starter. Roughie is in some good form, and is perfectly positioned to swoop on Buddys pie while he takes a bit of a rest. His R/F MPP also means a trade into the forward-line could always be moved to the ruck with the right rookie sitting on the bench.

My apologies for the lateness of the article, and the sparse commentary on a few of the players, things should settle down in the next couple of weeks and the next Best Buys will certainly aim to have a little more detail. Until then, join me over the break for this weeks Best Buys.

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INFO

The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For...