TooSerious

Well, soon anyways...

For mine, Im probably going to hold on Kreuze this week. See what Ratts has up his sleeve to save his own career I reckon.

How about you guys? Pulling the trigger this week? Or is the cue in the rack til finals?

As always, <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10251031&process=live">The live scores and chat[/url] are up and about- so feel free to drop in.

If round 11 of the ORFFL saw the competition narrow, is it only logical to assume that round 12 will see the ORFFL spread its disco-wings and fly away from each other? Maybe. Very possibly maybe. With 6 teams equal on 8 wins, the probability is that it wont stay that way by Sunday.

Head over the break and we give you the ORFFL LD on all this 8 point hoopla.

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TARWIN LOWER PIGS (12th, 1210) vs TORRUMBARRY THUNDA (8th, 1222)

A real mid-table clash first up with only an average of 12 points separating the Stormboys from the Pigs. Yet for the second consecutive week Tarwin Lower talisman Scott Pendlebury misses with a broken leg (they say its just a flesh wound), which will certainly make victory tougher against an outfit that seems rejuvenated from the midseason break. Will Goodes fire against Lions at the SCG? Wheres Mitch Wallis? Just some of the questions going into this one.

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POOWONG POTOROOS (6th, 1229) vs COULTA COULDABEENS (7th, 1232)

JDog, coach of Poowong, needs to reassert his strength, after suffering a loss last week that moved the Potoroos from 2nd to 6th. For Bearfly, coach of the opposing Coulta, his team has the chance to take his team to 8 wins and into the top echelon of the ORFFL. And yet both of these teams in this middle stage of the season are suffering injuries to best 15 players. Poowong with Thompson and Murphy missing in DEF, Coulta with Zaha and Schulz missing up FWD - and Burgoyne in DEF. Gary to surely tonup though.

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BONNIE DOON BANDITS (14th, 1156) vs SARAH ISLAND SAVAGES (1st, 1369)

Fresh from knocking off 2nd nay 6th, the Bandits of Bonnie Doon take on the reigning...

Round 14 recap: I think Ablett is just teasing us. Fresh off his bye, and playing against the West Coast Eagles (with recent scores against them of 154, 176, 121 and 175) with his most recent score this season being 188, everyone thought he would knock out another bumper score. Unfortunately 87 is simply not good enough.

Following Rd 13 where only three players scored over 130, Rd 14 proved to be quite different with 22 players scoring 130 or above. At the top of the list was Jolly with 157 but there were other familiar faces in the top bunch with Selwood (149), Swan (147) and Watson (145) having big games.

Here are the numbers …
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Judd v. Collingwood

Rd 3 2012: 134 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 17 2011: 122 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 3 2011: 112 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 85 SC points, 17 disposals
Rd 6 2010: 106 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 17 2009: 100 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 141 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 12 2008: 101 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 4 2008: 98 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 133 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 16 2006: 96 SC points, 23 disposals
Rd 7 2006: 184 SC points, 32 disposals

Average is 118 SC points with 28 disposals.

Note: Solid average against Collingwood. Since 2010 has been tagged by Wellingham (except in the Rd 17 game last year when Wellingham went to Murphy instead. Despite reports that he is playing injured, he responded with a solid 126 against Hawthorn last week which had followed a lean run of scores: 47, 105, 79 and 80.

Watson v. St Kilda

Rd 3 2011: 136 SC points, 33 disposals
Rd 18 2010: 100 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 8 2010: 106 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 20 2009: 196 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 8 2009: 126 SC points, 39 disposals
Rd 22 2008: 92 SC points, 18 disposals
Rd 5 2008: 88 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 4 2007: 85 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 15 2006: 111 SC points, 29 disposals

Average is 116 SC points with 29 disposals.

Note: Solid record...

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This weeks teams are brought to us by the Cadbury Boost. BOOOOOOOOOSST!.
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Reckon I might need a few considering Pendles wont be back this week.

Wow, the outs list is pretty long, but thankfully its missing those two big ones were were hoping to see included- Lance Franklin and Matty Boyd.

Still a chance to miss late I reckon, but even if they do- itll just be the week. So make sure your emergencies are set peoples!

Goddard and Martin out will hit most people. while those with Darley, Adams, Hall, Chapman and Duffield will more than likely be bringing them straight onto the field.

Warnock out has made me reconsider trading out Kreuzer. Reckon Ill give him one more week.

Still no Malceski is a massive worry for his owners.

Ins: Darley, Adams, Hall, Chapman, Duffield
Outs: Tom McDonald, Elton, Martin, Golby, Walker, Goddard, Milera, DellOlio, Shiel, Sexton

Full teams are over the break.

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<h3>Collingwood v Carlton</h3>
MCG &#8211; Fri Jul 06, 7:50pm
Collingwood
B: Heritier O&#8217;Brien, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams

HB: Nick Maxwell, Ben Reid, Alan Toovey

C: Simon Buckley, Dale Thomas, Jarryd Blair

HF: Ben Sinclair, Chris Dawes, Heath Shaw

F: Dayne Beams, Travis Cloke, Tyson Goldsack

Foll: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Steele Sidebottom

I/C: Sharrod Wellingham, Alex Fasolo, Jamie Elliott, Jackson Paine
Emg: Martin Clarke, Paul Seedsman, Caolan Mooney
In: Ben Sinclair

Out: Caolan Mooney
Carlton
B: Matthew Watson, Michael Jamison, Aaron Joseph

HB: Bryce Gibbs, Nick Duigan, Zach Tuohy

C: Heath Scotland, Mitch Robinson, Dennis Armfield...

Hi all, and welcome once again to the Best Buys.

This week Ive been quite rushed, so Ill have to start by mentioning that the Best Buys arent quite as large as usual, but will hopefully be just as helpful, and apologise for the rushed nature of it. This week sees a few young rookies on the bubble, and really not much else changing to be fair. The question as always with the rookies will be whether or not they can continue to get TOG, but unfortunately even for the best SCers this will remain a bit of a gamble.

My tip of the week for this week is Carrots, or Andrew Carrazzo.
After breaking his shoulder and a decent lay-off Carrots is back in the game and showing why he is internally one of the top rated players at Carlton. D/M MPP is a great bonus to have, and if the dreaded late-season injuries, or even The General, strike he could be a great coverage option. Murphys return may see slight change in role for Carrots but he should still be able to rack up some good scores. As the saying goes though, its the Carrot or the Stick, and Im still unsure of which will work better.

Anyways, join me over the break for the rest of this weeks Best Buys.

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INFO

The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players should be avoided or not picked due to this, but simply that they aren’t as good “value” as the others in the Best Buys. For all the player I’ve missed, and any more you’re wanting opinions on, the thumbs are always there.

The thumbs act as a polling tool for the TS community, if you pose a question with either...

Round 14.  Moving round, or so it seems, with many of the hot favourites playing exceptionally well over the weekend.  Franklin, Boyd, Swan, Mitchell, Jack &amp; Joel Selwood (starting to make his run) all pushed their claims to catch on leaders Thompson and Watson - however they both responded with likely BOG performances.  And whilst Watson was clearly best afield, Thompson will probably get the three - but it is less clear cut (although he did have 9 possessions more than any other on the winning team).

Over the page you may notice that the tallys do not line up exactly with last week.  After initially giving Swan the 3 votes against West Coast, something didnt sit right (Beams was clearly best on ground).  I have updated the formula to better reflect this, and backdated the calculations across all games this season - not a huge difference, but some team leaders have swapped.  On top of this, youll also see a variance number assigned next to each of the leaders: this reflects back to the strengths of the votes that I have awarded each player, and also is positively effected by games where a player may poll higher.  It also indicates a likely range, i.e. Scott Thompson on 24 with a (-8) suggests he should be somewhere between 16 &amp; 24.<!--more-->

Hawthorn v Carlton

3 - Sam Mitchell (14)
2 - Lance Franklin (19)
1 - Grant Birchall (1)
The rest: C. Judd, J. Roughead, J. Lewis, M. Robinson, D. Hale, B. Sewell

Collingwood v Fremantle

3 - Dane Swan (17)
2 - Jarryd Blair (2)
1 - Darren Jolly (1)
The rest: D. Beams, D. Thomas, S. Wellingham, M. Barlow

Adelaide v Richmond

3 - Scott Thompson (24)
2 - Taylor Walker (7)
1 - Shane Tuck (8)
The rest: J. Porplyzia, K. Tippett, T. Cotchin, R. Douglas, B. Deledio, S. Jacobs

West Coast v Gold Coast

3 - Luke Shuey (7)
2 - Chris Masten (6)
1 - Dean Cox (4)
The rest: M. Priddis, D. Kerr, M. Rosa, S. Selwood, Q. Lynch, S. Hurn

Essendon v Western Bulldogs

3 - Jobe Watson (23)
2 -...

Sorry for the late post this week. We had a pretty good round 14, but nothing brilliant. Our round score was 2167 which placed us at 46,129 for the week, while our overall ranking is 22,531 so not quite where we want it to be.

In our leagues we had a bit of a shocker, winning two of five, to now be ranked 16th (Ucantbetooserious), 4th (Ucantbe TS), 4th (TS Igotatheroy), 7th (TS Pine Warmers) and 10th (TS – WA League). Ironically it was the two leagues that we’re ranked lowest that we won, and the three we’re ranked the highest we lost!

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We had a pretty even spread across the lines with week, with more positive emphasis moving to our forward line, which started the season weak, while our backline, which started the season strong, is now letting us down a little.

1. Deledio,DEF,110
2. Goddard,DEF,81
3. Waters,DEF,86
4. Broughton,DEF,71
5. Lake,DEF,81
6. Shaw,DEF,66
7. Bugg,DEF,24
8. Kennedy,MID,123
9. Selwood Vice Captain,MID,149
10. Ablett Captain 87 x 2 ,MID,174
11. Mitchell,MID,129
12. Priddis,MID,117
13. Sexton,MID,10
14. Cox,RUC,134
15. Giles,RUC,73
16. Franklin,FWD,130
17. Sidebottom,FWD,93
18. Dangerfield,FWD,86
19. Roughead,FWD,112
20. Martin,FWD,134
21. Riewoldt,FWD,78
22. Porplyzia,FWD,106
,,
1. Shaw Emergency,DEF,59
2. Darley,DEF,0
3. Pendlebury,MID,0
4. Gibson Emergency,MID,91
5. Redden,RUC,0
6. Pattison,RUC,0
7. Milera Emergency,FWD,12
8. Adams,FWD,0

So, that backline – it was lead by Deledio on 110 points, being the only backman to top the ton. We then had Waters on 86, Goddard and Lake sharing 81 a piece, Broughton on 71, H Shaw on 66, and Bugg on 24 points. Our bench was S Shaw as emergency on 59, and Darley with a donut. Had have we swapped S Shaw for Bugg we would have picked up another 35 points, but that’s the only improvement we could have made down back.

In the midfield we had some really solid scores from most, and a...

The first round back from the mid-year hiatus proved to be a crunchy, dry biscuit! The Top3 teams feeling all kinds of upset, dropping games and leaving the Top6 eyeing each other off, all level on 8 wins. At the other end of the fantasy continuum, Humpty Doo notched a mighty 1357 in victory, with what is essentially(ish) a brand new team. Can you say "bye-bye Jaeger!"?

Head over the break and we review shiz.

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But before we do that, a brief word. Due to the wonders of coding technology, the ORFFL now has the ability to rollover teams from week to week; meaning you dont have to select your team every week. Amazing!

Of course this does pose the problem of whether or not we should implement this technology right now, given that two teams have already been punished with the ULTIMATE ZERO this season.

Have your say below. Whatevs you guys want.

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MERTON MEERKATS 1358 Def TARWIN LOWER PIGS 1242

The Juggernaut that is Merton rolled on in round 11, the Kats romping away to a 116 point win over the Pigs. The Fab Four of Cotchin (136), Scooter (134), Tuck (137) and Edwards (111) scurrying around to the taps of TheBigMulletedOne (115). Martin (134) also notched his 3rd ton in YELLOW AND GREEN. Merton move up 4th with the win and leave other ORFFL coaches a little heavy in the underpants at the prospect of facing the TigerKat army in the finals.

In a recurring theme this season Tarwin Lower were not bad, but not good enough. Missing Pendles and Wallis, a green vested Smith (15) in a wash was the last thing they needed. Patton (43) also struggled for points playing in a young GWS side, yet there were plenty of bright spots. Hanley (124), Hocking (125) and OKeefe (124) all knocking up sizeable hungies.

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Hadnt written anything for while so thought it was time I started to contribute to site again!

In Supercoach your pre-season selections or non selections can really make or break your entire season. If you nail the right breakout player it can save you a couple trades and gain you those valuable points, and on the other side if they fail to deliver it not only costs you lost points if you hold onto them for too long it hurts your bank balance as they lose all value.

What I thought what I’d do is look back at a few of the mid priced fallen premiums that we  talked about during preseason. These were guys that for various reasons (well the 3 Im looking at cos of injury) dropped their output from previous years, meaning they had potential for some great points per dollar over the more expensive guys.

Ive decided to look at Kieran Jack vs Lenny Hayes vs Michael Barlow who were all at or below $450K at start of season, but feel free to post in comments the decisions you regret or are loving making. Everyone has a few they regret not taking punt on.

Join us over break for more

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KIERAN JACK

SEASON AVE: 111

FIRST 7 GAMES: 90

LAST 6 GAMES AVE: 135

Kieran Jack was one of those unique picks a few people had on their radar throughout the pre-season due to being under-priced thanks to injury riddled 2011. In 2010 Jack averaged 100 and 2011 saw it drop to 80. Throughout 2010 he showed signs that he can score large on a consistent basis. He started 2012 at lowly $428K, but was overshadowed by hype around Lenny Hayes &amp; Michael Barlow. If you started with him you’d be pretty happy, only 3 games under 89 points (47, 76, 77) and 8 games over 114 points.

LENNY HAYES

SEASON AVE: 105

FIRST 7 GAMES: 108

LAST 6 GAMES: 101.5

Lenny Hayes was probably the most talked about discounted player throughout pre-season, but the major concern was how he would return from his 2nd serious knee injury at ripe old age of 32....

Great to be fielding full teams again and didnt the players respond with some cracking matches. Most games decided by less than a 100 points in what was a footy feast in ORFFA. Big news down on the hood as the Nungas finally get up for their first win and the Kiwis head back over the dutch with the inaugural Pinot Cup.

Join me over the break for all the results and ladder.......

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Gundagai 1226 defeated Marble Bar 1212

Snoz gets the boys home in a vital mid table clash. Liam Anthonyof all people putting in the big ones last quarter to get the hoppers over the line in a fantastic match.

Foul Bay 1465 defeated Cradle Mountain 1337

Match of the round sees the Chooks just a bit too strong at home over a brave Cradle Mountain. Surely Tucky must be close to winning the B&amp;F at Foul Bay with another vote winning performance.  The Poultry boys now two games clear and looking unstoppable at the moment.

Venus Bay 1192 lost to Mawson Base 1226

Local residents have been wondering about the influx of penguins to the area lately. What they fail to realise that they are Mawson training scouts and their reports were vital to the close win over the pipi diggers.

Far Kew 1091 lost to Charlies Opening 1257

The Spelunkers travel up to Far Kew for a good win and a bad latte and move back into finals contention as a result.

Powletts Plains 1168 lost to Mount Beauty 1235

Bob Murphys injury and a single digit effort by young Kennedy real coach killers here for the Saurian, despite a huge effort by Jolly.  Mt Beauty into 3rd and looking like a team to watch in the back half of the year.

Darrweit Guim 1116 lost to Iron Knob 1225

In what can only be described as a shock loss, the Guim go down to the Codpieces at home. Rance and Connors the chief villains here as Iron Knob move into 2nd on the strength of the win.

Whitsundays 1055 lost to Waikikamoocow 1281

The inaugural Pinot Cup...