TooSerious

Round 7 recap: Well Ablett responded to the “will he, won’t he??” and returned with a solid but slightly disappointing (by Ablett standards) 125 SC points from 33 disposals. Despite all the talk about him playing in the forward line, he only managed one behind. I was a lot more happy with my smoky pick of Franklin who continued his fine form against Melbourne with a great 140 (which would have been much higher had he kicked better than 3 goals and 7 behinds).

Round 7 regrets: Whilst Swan did well with 141, Pendlebury disappointed with only 107. Cox had an underwhelming average against Essendon (91), whilst Watson and Stanton did not fare much better against the Eagles with 100 and 73 respectively. All three, however, smashed it over the weekend: Cox with 141, Watson with 149 and Stanton with 164.

The question this week seems to be whether Ablett has reclaimed his perma-captain title – or is he playing on one leg hence his relatively low 125 last round?
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Goddard v. West Coast

Rd 17 2011: 106 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 9 2010: 157 SC points, 30 disposals
Rd 15 2009: 112 SC points, 25 disposals
Rd 3 2009: 175 SC points, 28 disposals
Rd 17 2008: 103 SC points, 26 disposals

Average is 137 SC points with 27 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against West Coast. Most recently played head to head against Shuey (2011) but was tagged by Adam Selwood in the 2010 game. Seems to be slowly finding form with recent scores of 113, 120, 58 and 93.

Ablett v. Western Bulldogs

Rd 14 2011: 121 SC points, 24 disposals
Rd 3 2011: 141 SC points, 34 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 154 SC points, 39 disposals
QF 2009: 131 SC points, 31 disposals
Rd 21 2009: 122 SC points, 40 disposals
Rd 9 2009: 149 SC points, 38 disposals
PF 2008: 116 SC points, 29 disposals
Rd 16 2007: 127 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 1 2007: 97 SC points, 24 disposals

Average is 129 SC points with 33 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Bulldogs. Only one score...

Welcome once again to the Best Buys

This week sees a fair few rookie options on the bubble, and for those who resisted the double-downgrade last week, some decent opportunites to get in some fresh meat. Defense in particular has a few guys worth looking at, which with some of the defensive cash-cows already getting close to their peak it is perfectly timed. For those that did opt for the double-downgrade this week sees the ideal time to bring a couple of heavy-hitters to replenish the premium stocks and hopefully get that nice points boost that were all looking for.

My tip for the week is Stevie J, who is looking to have regained some form and fitness and is currently bargain priced. The Cats run from here does still have some pretty challenging sections but they usually have an easy game or two in between the tougher ones. With Tomahawk drawing more attention up froward Stevie J should get loose a bit more and also spend more time through the midfield. He is definitely a gamble, but one that on prior form has paid off many times over the years.

I know the "I was a bit rushed this week" line must be getting a bit old now but hopefully this week I have at least a reasonably good excuse, so as always feel free to let me know of any mistakes I have made or issues I have missed. Its always great to hear your thoughts.

So grab a coffee (or lunch now as the case may be) and join me over the break for the full Best Buys and some comments and thumbs action.

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The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they are playing well, as value is the key for this article. If a player is averaging 110, which is certainly solid, but priced at an average of 112 then they will not be rated. This does not mean these players...

The donors did pretty well this week, with a score of 2347, which placed us 20,857 for the round. This brings us to a total score of 14,801 giving us an overall rank of 25,803. Onto our leagues, and we’re 12th in Ucantbetooserio after a loss, 2nd in Ucantbe TS after a win, 2nd in TS Igotatheroy after a win, 4th in TS Pine Warmers after a win, and 16th in the TS WA League after a loss.

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Our trades last week were Magner (84 points and $23k increase) and C. Smith (10 points and a $12k decrease) out, with Adams (80 points and $73k increase) and Horsley (80 points and an $82k increase) coming in, so its safe to say we can count that as a win!

As for our team breakdown in round 7, it looked something like this:

1. Deledio,DEF,100
2. Goddard,DEF,113
3. Broughton,DEF,107
4. Clarke,DEF,90
5. Bugg,DEF,68
6. Shaw,DEF,142
7. Lake,DEF,108
8. Kennedy,MID,101
9. Pendlebury Captain 107 x 2 ,MID,214
10. Selwood Vice Captain,MID,114
11. Ablett,MID,125
12. Shiel,MID,62
13. Horsley,MID,80
14. Cox,RUC,141
15. Giles,RUC,134
16. Franklin,FWD,140
17. Dangerfield,FWD,98
18. Roughead,FWD,91
19. Martin,FWD,88
20. Milera,FWD,81
21. Porplyzia,FWD,70
22. Adams,FWD,80
,,
1. Morris Emergency,DEF,73
2. Ellis,DEF,2
3. Smith Emergency,MID,77
4. McDonald,MID,0
5. Redden,RUC,0
6. Pattison,RUC,0
7. Kennedy Emergency,FWD,75
8. Treloar,FWD,96

Once again our defence had a really good showing, with Deledio (100), Goddard (113), Broughton (107), Shaw (top scoring with 142), and Lake (108) all breaking the ton. The rookies of Clarke and Bugg scored 90 and 68 respectively. Our bench was made up of emergency Morris’ 73 and sub-effected Ellis’ lowly 2. We only lost a potential 5 points due to bench selections, which you definitely can’t sneeze at.

Onto the mids, where captain Pendlebury’s 107 was a real disappointment. The rest of our mid premiums topped the ton, with Kennedy on 101,...

Oh yeah, intro, into...It was the best of times, it was the bleurghst of times. That was Round 7 of the ORFFL alright. Read over.

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COULTA COULDABEENS 1243 Def TARWIN LOWER PIGS 1132

There was something of a snafu with the team lists, but nothing snafuish about the Couldabeens performance; Coulta defeating Tarwin Lower by an awesome 111 points (I like palindromic numbers). Zaharakis (130) and Reilly (120) played well in demolitions, and the Port Adelaide midfield duo of Ebert (109) and McCarthy (105) lifted for their fantasy coach when their teammates could not. The win also sees them move into 8th spot.

The loss sees Tarwin Lower drop to 14th, and a series of questions asked of the players. Do they score enough? How is HMacs knee? What kind of a name is Jarryn? The answer to the first is pretty clear with Pendles (107) below par, and only Giles (134), and youngster Wallis (110) knocking up triple figures. The second, two weeks, tops. The third, NFI.

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MALLACOOTA MAGICIANS 1280 Def by POOWONG POTOROOS 1355

It was as it was promised, a clash of two ORFFL heavyweights, Poowong downing Mallacoota by 75 points in a high scoring affair. Their highly touted midfield of Gary (125), Thompson (161), Sewell (140), and Mzungu (76) scoring 502 points in a mighty display of prowess.  The other Thompson (116) and revelation, TheSherminator (104) also chipped in with nice hungies.

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Meanwhile in the losers rooms, the Magicians skulk and sulk as they lament a lost chance stay in the Top4. Redden (118) performed well in a loss, Crameri (109) continued to prove what a find he is for Mallacoota, while Rance (108),...

Hey hey! Finally the SC Gods are back on side with some big scores going up around the place. Reckon 2300 is gunna be par (Which coincidently enough, is what Im on track for in both SC and DT!)

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Melbourne vs Hawthorn

Result: Hawthorn by 66, 15.25.115 to 6.13.59

I try to imagine what was going on in the media room at the AFL when they were trying to bill this one up as a big Friday night clash. Seemed the best they could come up with was- Lets see if the Dees can prevent the inevitable stomping that they are going to recieve.

Turns out they sort of did. Lost by 11 goals, but considering the 15.25 kicked by the Hawkers, a 100 point loss really could have been on the cards.

Buddy was in classic 2012 form, kicking 3 goals 7, though considering hes averaging 2.6 goals, 4 behinds, I think thats a plus, sortof. Wish the bloke could kick straight though, just think what his average could have been this season! Reckon someone should send him a pair of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concave_football_boot">Concaves[/url] - see if it sorts him out.

Anyways, he did end up scoring a very tidy 140SC, matching teammate Sewell, who managed his off 32 disposals.

Hale had a very nice game. 23 touches for his 124SC, while Birchall and Lewis were both very good with 122SC and 119SC.

The only real bad news for the Hawks was Rioli who was subbed off for just 48SC, not due to any obvious reason, but I wouldnt want to be a Rioli owner right now.

Watching Melbourne, it was all about Magner (For those of you who didnt trade him out), and he performed admirably. 17 disposals for an 84SC should see his salary tick up for a few more weeks. Hopefully he can keep it up til after that all important round 12 bye.

Heroes: Sewell, Franklin, Hale, Birchall, Lewis, Clark, Magner
Villians: Rioli

Adelaide vs Geelong

Result: Adelaide by 50, 19.8.122 to 10.12.72...

What a season! What a finish! 1 game to go and yet there is still five games with something to play for. Theres a lot of questions needing answering tonight. Can City win their first title since 1968? Or will Hughes do his (other) old club a favour and take immeasurable delight in robbing his nemesis of glory? Will Spurs players come down with food poisoning before a last day fight for CL qualificaiton .... again? Whos the greatest miracle worker at Wigan? Martinez or Moses? Dunno about anyone else but Ive got my stash of Red Bull at the ready. It all kicks off at midnight tonight (Sunday). Cant wait. Read more over the break....<!--more-->

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Man City v QPR

So it all comes down to this game. A City victory and they’ll win their first title since 1968. Man City with 17 wins and 1 draw from their 18 home games and QPR with the worst away record in the league. It should be a banker….

QPR however, are still in deep trouble and are fighting for their PL lives, knowing that a defeat could send them down. Cisse was the hero last week with a last minute winner and he is the type of player that can save QPR with some magic.

Barton, Onuoha and manager Mark Hughes are all going back to their old hunting ground and wouldn’t Sparky love the chance of robbing Mancini of the title.

City have a full squad but Diakite and Helguson are doubts for QPR.

Sunderland v Man Utd

This game might well come down to meaning the square root of sweet FA, depending on what happens at Eastlands. However, as all games commence at the same time Utd will be hell-bent on wiping the floor with Sunderland just in case.

Smalling and Evans will miss out at Centre Half and Welbeck is out while Carrick is doubtful with illness.

Chelsea v Blackburn

Chelsea’s hopes of finishing fourth are over after their abysmal performance and result at Anfield midweek. Ivanovic and Terry especially had a shocker but both should play here as they’re banned for the UCL final. Ramires...

Well there was some BIG upsets and BIG games on the weekend !!!. A lot hit by injuries but still  high scoring games . Biggest thing to come from the weekend games is that there is NO easy games in this league.....................

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Fez V Eleviathans:
Fez has his team up and about and shot a 2157  which made Eles rough start even rougher !!. Eles 2081 with donuts  wasnt that bad a score but in SC no cigar is no cigar !!!. Ele like a  lot of coaches waiting for the return of Ablett and Co.

Schlock V Viddle:
The undefeated Schlock took on the Viddle in a mismatch for this stage of the season. Viddle hoping the Schlock could throw him a bone but instead only copped a face full of sand !!. Is a hard bastard is the Schlock lol. The scoreline of 2226 V 2110 showed Viddle is there about just not on this game.

JB V Supercoachsuperstar:
In the MOTR in the derbys these two heavy weights went at it and at the end of the round SCSSs 2216 was to good for JBs 2115 . Which ever the result have no doubt these two will be slaying many a coach along the as both arnt the type to taking 2nd too well !!.

Bones V Mancdave:
Bones went into this game as hot favorite as Mancdave had yet to open the account . But like all go SC plans it went titts up fairly quickly for the hapless Bones as his team went south, with a 2006 V Mancdaves 2254, just when he was odds on to win one !!!!. Not a whole lot of sympathy from the Mancdave though lol when your 0-3 youll take any win !!!.

Ned V Yani:
In the first of the Ashes games, Yani, after being the easy beat for the first few weeks,  came out with a 2200+ and had a lot of sceptics saying he couldnt back it up !!!. Well 2328 is no slouch score !!!. This has turned Yani into a TS threat and thus trades will be used to make sure the Yani pays for them early losses. Ned waiting for his cows to fatten so as to fix this minor glitch in his season !!. The land of the wet,...

With upgrade season upon us, its perhaps a good time to go through some rudimentary planing around the byes.

Cause really, nothing will kick your ass harder than running 5 upgrades over the next 5 weeks, and pushing yourself into 5 donuts come round 11.

So upload your team into TS, and join us over the break.

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Alright, so youve uploaded your squad? Excellent.

Now, head over to the ticker and overlay that bad boy. You should get a very good overview of what your team will look like when the byes hit us. Heres mine.

<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/MyByes.png" width="470px">

Now, let first remember a couple of truths in the byes.

1. Unless you are rolling some kind of Lycett F/R trickery, and he plays, well, you *will* be coping two zeros. There is no avoiding this. No avoiding it, but you can choose where they happen.

2. There are three trades over the bye rounds. Meaning between 11 and 12, and 12 and 13, you can cash in 6 upgrade/downgrade trades to keep the duck eggs to a minimum.

3. On each line, we can have 2 players sitting out before hitting an egg (duuuur)

So, lets look at me. I know that I have a lot of work to move out of my GWS rookies between now and round 11.

What I can see however, by looking at the chart, is where I need to put them to be effected the least by the byes.

If I look at my round 13 players, I can see that, upon using 3 trades, I can avoid all zeros there, but its on the edge. So I need to revolve my upgrades around getting some more players into the round 12 bye.

Drilling deeper than that however, I can see that I only have 1 rookie on my list come round 12- Magner. This is a little worrying, as any movement to dodge the 0s will require sub-optimal sideways trades, which perhaps offers a little incentive to hold onto Magner for a few more weeks.

Regardless of that however, in a perfect world, I manage to move 3 forwards byes from round 11,...

Well  folks, fifteen days since the conception of the ORFFA and now the proud coaches can now watch their teams run out (or in the case of Marble Bar, stagger) on to the grounds for the  first time.

A few injuries have crept in already since the draft and will mean that some (including the Mawson Base mob) will be fielding less than full strength teams which we will examine over the break......

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Far Kew vs Nunawading - The Nuffers travel up Whitehorse rd. for the battle of the Eastern Suburbs. The proven midfield of Kew against the up and comers of  Nunna. The one thing for certain here is that Chappy will have a big night out at the Skinny Dog afterwards whoever wins.

Foul Bay vs Iron Knob - The chicken farmers look to pull off their first coup down at the Coup.  Foul Bay has been touted as the team to beat by pundits however face a stern test against the Ablett driven Codpieces.

Gundagai vs Mt. Beauty - The boys from the Kiewa Valley travel up the Hume highway to Gundagai to face a 211 centimetre giant.  The dog on the tuckerbox will only be five miles away from the big game here and presumably getting updates on its tranny.

Whitsundays vs Birdsville - The Q clash sees the plucky cocky farmers from Birdsville head over to the millionaires playground.  The marshmallow lifestyle of the Warriors has already brought comment from other coaches as being unsuitable for ORFFA training. The Warriors coach has dismissed these claims as ridiculous  during an interview whilst sipping a Singapore Sling in the club jacuzzi.

Cradle Mountain vs Charlies Opening - Cradle Mountain will be unveiling No. 1 draft pick in Pendles this match. Despite this, the mob from the mine have a balanced side which I think is one of the better one going around.The high caffeine  intake of the Spelunkers will be closely monitored by WADA to ensure that no unfair advantage is gained.

Waikikamoocow vs Venus...

Hi all - not a lot on offer this week, with the betting agencies lines falling very much in line with mine.  Predicted wins for this week, and margins:

Hawks by 30
Cats by 15
Tigers by 9
Pies by 23
Bombers by 14
Roos by 17
Dockers by 28
Blues by 18

Only the Friday night game offers any real odds, with Hawks at 55 points +, giving an 80% chance of Melbourne + 55 coming in.  Ive picked the Kangaroos line exactly, whilst all other only have room of 7 - 8 points, which only equates to a 62% chance... throw some comments in as the game gets underway, and further analysis is added...

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Games included above are the 48 non GWS games that have occurred this year.  The blue line is the actual margin, the red line is the prediction, and the green line is the error.  To sum it up:
<table width="168" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
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<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 16 are exact



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 12 are within 1 point



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 6 are within 2 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 5 are within 4 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 4 are within 7 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 3 are within 13 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 2 are witin 22 points




Each week there have been 1 or 2 very accurate results, which means if you like any of the above options, then 26/1 odds aint bad given theres not a lot of offer on the line this week:

Week 1: 1 game...