TooSerious

Well there was some BIG upsets and BIG games on the weekend !!!. A lot hit by injuries but still  high scoring games . Biggest thing to come from the weekend games is that there is NO easy games in this league.....................

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Fez V Eleviathans:
Fez has his team up and about and shot a 2157  which made Eles rough start even rougher !!. Eles 2081 with donuts  wasnt that bad a score but in SC no cigar is no cigar !!!. Ele like a  lot of coaches waiting for the return of Ablett and Co.

Schlock V Viddle:
The undefeated Schlock took on the Viddle in a mismatch for this stage of the season. Viddle hoping the Schlock could throw him a bone but instead only copped a face full of sand !!. Is a hard bastard is the Schlock lol. The scoreline of 2226 V 2110 showed Viddle is there about just not on this game.

JB V Supercoachsuperstar:
In the MOTR in the derbys these two heavy weights went at it and at the end of the round SCSSs 2216 was to good for JBs 2115 . Which ever the result have no doubt these two will be slaying many a coach along the as both arnt the type to taking 2nd too well !!.

Bones V Mancdave:
Bones went into this game as hot favorite as Mancdave had yet to open the account . But like all go SC plans it went titts up fairly quickly for the hapless Bones as his team went south, with a 2006 V Mancdaves 2254, just when he was odds on to win one !!!!. Not a whole lot of sympathy from the Mancdave though lol when your 0-3 youll take any win !!!.

Ned V Yani:
In the first of the Ashes games, Yani, after being the easy beat for the first few weeks,  came out with a 2200+ and had a lot of sceptics saying he couldnt back it up !!!. Well 2328 is no slouch score !!!. This has turned Yani into a TS threat and thus trades will be used to make sure the Yani pays for them early losses. Ned waiting for his cows to fatten so as to fix this minor glitch in his season !!. The land of the wet,...

With upgrade season upon us, its perhaps a good time to go through some rudimentary planing around the byes.

Cause really, nothing will kick your ass harder than running 5 upgrades over the next 5 weeks, and pushing yourself into 5 donuts come round 11.

So upload your team into TS, and join us over the break.

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Alright, so youve uploaded your squad? Excellent.

Now, head over to the ticker and overlay that bad boy. You should get a very good overview of what your team will look like when the byes hit us. Heres mine.

<img src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/MyByes.png" width="470px">

Now, let first remember a couple of truths in the byes.

1. Unless you are rolling some kind of Lycett F/R trickery, and he plays, well, you *will* be coping two zeros. There is no avoiding this. No avoiding it, but you can choose where they happen.

2. There are three trades over the bye rounds. Meaning between 11 and 12, and 12 and 13, you can cash in 6 upgrade/downgrade trades to keep the duck eggs to a minimum.

3. On each line, we can have 2 players sitting out before hitting an egg (duuuur)

So, lets look at me. I know that I have a lot of work to move out of my GWS rookies between now and round 11.

What I can see however, by looking at the chart, is where I need to put them to be effected the least by the byes.

If I look at my round 13 players, I can see that, upon using 3 trades, I can avoid all zeros there, but its on the edge. So I need to revolve my upgrades around getting some more players into the round 12 bye.

Drilling deeper than that however, I can see that I only have 1 rookie on my list come round 12- Magner. This is a little worrying, as any movement to dodge the 0s will require sub-optimal sideways trades, which perhaps offers a little incentive to hold onto Magner for a few more weeks.

Regardless of that however, in a perfect world, I manage to move 3 forwards byes from round 11,...

Well  folks, fifteen days since the conception of the ORFFA and now the proud coaches can now watch their teams run out (or in the case of Marble Bar, stagger) on to the grounds for the  first time.

A few injuries have crept in already since the draft and will mean that some (including the Mawson Base mob) will be fielding less than full strength teams which we will examine over the break......

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Far Kew vs Nunawading - The Nuffers travel up Whitehorse rd. for the battle of the Eastern Suburbs. The proven midfield of Kew against the up and comers of  Nunna. The one thing for certain here is that Chappy will have a big night out at the Skinny Dog afterwards whoever wins.

Foul Bay vs Iron Knob - The chicken farmers look to pull off their first coup down at the Coup.  Foul Bay has been touted as the team to beat by pundits however face a stern test against the Ablett driven Codpieces.

Gundagai vs Mt. Beauty - The boys from the Kiewa Valley travel up the Hume highway to Gundagai to face a 211 centimetre giant.  The dog on the tuckerbox will only be five miles away from the big game here and presumably getting updates on its tranny.

Whitsundays vs Birdsville - The Q clash sees the plucky cocky farmers from Birdsville head over to the millionaires playground.  The marshmallow lifestyle of the Warriors has already brought comment from other coaches as being unsuitable for ORFFA training. The Warriors coach has dismissed these claims as ridiculous  during an interview whilst sipping a Singapore Sling in the club jacuzzi.

Cradle Mountain vs Charlies Opening - Cradle Mountain will be unveiling No. 1 draft pick in Pendles this match. Despite this, the mob from the mine have a balanced side which I think is one of the better one going around.The high caffeine  intake of the Spelunkers will be closely monitored by WADA to ensure that no unfair advantage is gained.

Waikikamoocow vs Venus...

Hi all - not a lot on offer this week, with the betting agencies lines falling very much in line with mine.  Predicted wins for this week, and margins:

Hawks by 30
Cats by 15
Tigers by 9
Pies by 23
Bombers by 14
Roos by 17
Dockers by 28
Blues by 18

Only the Friday night game offers any real odds, with Hawks at 55 points +, giving an 80% chance of Melbourne + 55 coming in.  Ive picked the Kangaroos line exactly, whilst all other only have room of 7 - 8 points, which only equates to a 62% chance... throw some comments in as the game gets underway, and further analysis is added...

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<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AFL-Margin-Error2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6103" src="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AFL-Margin-Error2.jpg" alt="" width="1908" height="736" />[/url]<a href="http://tooserious.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/AFL-Margin-Error.jpg">
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Games included above are the 48 non GWS games that have occurred this year.  The blue line is the actual margin, the red line is the prediction, and the green line is the error.  To sum it up:
<table width="168" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
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<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 16 are exact



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 12 are within 1 point



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 6 are within 2 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 5 are within 4 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 4 are within 7 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 3 are within 13 points



<td valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap" width="168">1 in 2 are witin 22 points




Each week there have been 1 or 2 very accurate results, which means if you like any of the above options, then 26/1 odds aint bad given theres not a lot of offer on the line this week:

Week 1: 1 game...

And another week rolls round. Will Gaz dominate the Giants? Or will those who held him, cry bitter tears as hes used predominately through the forward line?

These and other things well follow through the <a href="http://tooserious.net/live_scores.php?page=gameday&id=10251160&process=live">live chat[/url]. So, like every week, join us for the frivolities.

Round 7 shapes as a defining round of the 2012 season of the ORFFL. So many matches sit on a figurative knife-edge; 1st vs 4th, 2nd vs 3rd, 6th vs 8th and others to boot. Victory could see consolidation from the mighty, or conquering of very same the same. Defeat on the other hand will bring only pain. How morbid. For more of the same, read on dear traveler.



NOW WITH HAME DAY UPDATES



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<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/9008/ccvstlp.jpg[/img];



COULTA COULDABEENS (10th, Avg. 1199) 1071/13 vs TARWIN LOWER PIGS (12th, 1196) 1007/13



The closest match up I think we've seen to date in the ORFFL, with the 10th placed Coulda going up against the 12th place Tarwin Lower, and only 3 points separating them on average. Out of undying respect for the Couldabeens erstwhile leader, I zips my lid on the issue of team selection, and leave it in his more than capable hands. Suffice to say, if the big Q-Stick (avg. 66) wanted to have a big game, now would be the time to do it. The Pigs would surely give themselves a sniff this weekend; look for improved performance from Giles (avg. 91), Bastinac (avg. 86), and Hocking (avg. 59) in particular.







<img alt='' width='480px' src='http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/593/mamavspoopo.jpg[/img];



MALLACOOTA MAGICIANS (3rd, 1267) 1280 vs POOWONG POTOROOS (2nd, 1248) 1355



An epic contest we have right here, 3rd place Mallacoota hosting 2nd placed Poowong. This match is full of intrigue, with the Magicians averaging just 19 ppg more that the Potoroos, yet Poowong sits one place higher on the ladder. Poowong also welcomes the return of Captain Gary (avg. 150), while Mallacoota come fresh off a 1317 last round, all the while playing a man down with the late out of BigBoy (avg. 95). Can Mallacoota keep it together in the face of a mounting injury toll? Or will the return of Gary galvanise an already strong...

Round 6 recap: Tough decision last week with Ablett missing his second game. My choice was “perma-captain in waiting” Pendlebury who didn’t disappoint with a 145. My second choice Swan was a disappointment with only 112 whilst my third choice of Selwood didn’t even get onto the park. I guessed that there would be no big scores from the Fremantle v. Gold Coast game and Pavlich proved me wrong. With everyone else though, I do wonder how he managed to get a 148.

Round 6 regrets: Carlton beat the Giants by 11 goals and Murphy has 27 disposals – the third most on the ground. Normally that should translate into a big SC score. Instead, in a game where eight players cracked 100, Murphy only managed 89 SC points which probably wasn’t helped by his 48% disposal efficiency.

The question this week is whether Ablett will be back. If not, another tough decision awaits …

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Selwood v. Adelaide

Rd 21 2011: 87 SC points, 27 disposals
Rd 16 2010: 144 SC points, 35 disposals
Rd 18 2009: 127 SC points, 26 disposals
Rd 4 2009: 124 SC points, 32 disposals
Rd 14 2008: 121 SC points, 37 disposals
Rd 19 2007: 127 SC points, 27 disposals

Average is 122 SC points with 30 disposals.

Note: Fantastic record against the Crows. Struggled in the most recent game which was an 11 point win at Footy Park. That was his only score below 120. Should be well rested after his week off. Solid form recently with scores of 144, 140 and 114.

Franklin v. Melbourne

Rd 18 2011: 132 SC points, 20 disposals
Rd 2 2011: 108 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 20 2010: 116 SC points, 22 disposals
Rd 9 2009: 112 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 9 2008: 103 SC points, 14 disposals
Rd 1 2008: 139 SC points, 16 disposals
Rd 2 2007: 62 SC points, 14 disposals

Average is 118 SC points with 18 disposals.

Note: Solid and consistent record against Melbourne. Normally manned up by Frawley or Garland. He is coming off scores of 131, 72 and 89 in his three most recent games.

Swan...

Plenty of big ins this week, with a lot of midfielders getting bolstered by the deliciousness that is Ablett and Selwood (And Judd.) That said though, with McDonald having a break, its good timing for at.

A couple of rookie defenders are getting their first game this week in Sierakowski and Zorko. The latter looking a fantastic downgrade option if ressies form is any guide!

Sadly, still no sign of Redden or the Big O for our ruck stocks though.

Ins: Jenkins, Selwood, Ablett, Drummond, Zorko, Goldstein, Sierakowski, Dickson, Smith, Sandilands, Judd
Outs: Hodge, McDonald, Bock, Goodes, Adcock, Crisp (Told ya )
Extended Bench: Dickson, Smith, Sierakowski, Broughton, Spurr

Full teams over the break

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Melbourne v Hawthorn
MCG – Fri May 11, 7:50pm
Melbourne
B: James Frawley, Jared Rivers, Clint Bartram
HB: Jack Grimes, Colin Garland, Cale Morton
C: Ricky Petterd, Brent Moloney, Jack Trengove
HF: Nathan Jones, Mitchell Clark, Jamie Bennell
F: Jeremy Howe, Colin Sylvia, Aaron Davey
Foll: Mark Jamar, James Magner, Jordie McKenzie
I/C: Matthew Bate, Rohan Bail, Jack Fitzpatrick, Tom McDonald
Emg: Lynden Dunn, Luke Tapscott, Joel Macdonald
In: Ricky Petterd, Jamie Bennell, Jack Fitzpatrick
Out: Lynden Dunn, Luke Tapscott, James Sellar (Calf)
Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Benjamin Stratton
HB: Grant Birchall, Ryan Schoenmakers, Matt Suckling
C: Brendan Whitecross, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis
HF: Isaac Smith, Lance Franklin, Luke Breust
F: Cyril Rioli, Jarryd Roughead, Michael Osborne
Foll: David Hale, Shaun Burgoyne, Brad Sewell
I/C: Clinton Young, Liam Shiels, Shane Savage, Paul Puopolo
Emg: Kyle Cheney, Bradley Hill, Broc McCauley
In: Stephen Gilham, Clinton Young
Out: Luke Hodge (Knee), Jarrad Boumann (Appendix)
Adelaide v Geelong Cats
AS – Sat May 12, 12:45pm
Adelaide
B: Michael Doughty, Ben Rutten, Graham Johncock
HB: Matthew Jaensch, Daniel Talia, Brent Reilly
C:...

Welcome again to the Best Buys.

With upgrade season normally starting around now, this season feels a bit different so far, with many SCers already having made a couple to cover the injury crises that have appeared. Goodes is gone, as the title suggests, and this will throw even more doubt into the minds of SCers about their squads and how many trades will be needed for injuries over the year. So far no-one has seemed to avoid the bullets and it would be safe to say that the majority of SC teams have had a couple of worries already. This is where the Best Buys comes in. Hopefully you can find some good options to cover these injuries, and some great upgrades to keep the points rolling in. I was a little bit rushed with the Best Buys this week so feel free to let me know of any mistakes on issues I may have missed.

My pick of the week is actually 2 this week, downgrading into Horsley and Adams, and then pulling a double-upgrade next week. Magner is staying put for me, as even with the tagging roles hes had I feel hes showed the most potential, and Shiel is pretty close in price anyway. If you have Goodes then he most likely will need to be traded and with the rookies on the bubble this round it seems that now is the best time to do it. As always you should wait until the teams are announced to make the final call, but the double-downgrade appears to have soem real merit this week.

So, grab a coffee, join me over the break, and we can get into the Best Buys for this week properly. Id love to hear opinions from you guys on the Best Buys and who should/shouldnt have made it, so Ill look forward to hearing from you in the comments.

Good luck and good trading!


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The Best Buys uses a mix of price, form, break-evens and projected salaries to assess the Best Buys of each round. These are essentially the players that represent the best “value” which is determined by the above factors. Some player will not be mentioned on here even if they...

Anyone who has been over to the donor forum will have seen Ucantbetooserious’ results for round six, so thanks to Shanaz for showing me up! Our team got 2163 in round 6, placing us in the top 40,000 for the round, and we’re now at 12,454 points, and 33,450 overall. In our leagues we won four of five, and are sitting 9th (Ucantbetooserio), 4th (Ucantbe TS), 3rd (TS Igotatheory), 5th (TS Pinewarmers), and 13th (TS – WA League).

Join me over the break to see how we went.<!--more-->

Prior to round 6 we traded out Dickson and Mumford, and brought in Roughead and Pattison. Both our outs didn’t play, and while we didn’t expect Pattison to play either, Roughies 120 in the forward line was an instant win! So, going into round seven we have 18 trades remaining, and $133,400 in the bank. There’s already some discussion in the forum about what to do this week, so once you’re done reading the review, head on over and join in the discussions.

As for the rest of round 6, here’s our scoring breakdown:

1. Deledio,DEF,143
2. Goddard,DEF,120
3. Broughton,DEF,85
4. Clarke,DEF,100
5. Bugg,DEF,55
6. Lake,DEF,91
7. Shaw,DEF,120
8. Kennedy,MID,118
9. Pendlebury Captain 145 x 2 ,MID,290
10. Magner,MID,61
11. Shiel,MID,74
12. McDonald,MID,84
13. Cox,RUC,141
14. Giles,RUC,56
15. Franklin,FWD,131
16. Dangerfield,FWD,122
17. Roughead,FWD,120
18. Martin,FWD,92
19. Porplyzia,FWD,66
20. Milera,FWD,54
21. Kennedy,FWD,40
1. Morris Emergency,DEF,63
2. Ellis,DEF,72
3. Selwood,MID,0
4. Ablett Emergency,MID,0
5. Smith,MID,0
6. Redden,RUC,0
7. Pattison,RUC,0
8. Smith,FWD,111
9. Treloar Emergency,FWD,0

Once again our defence did well for the team, with Deledio (143), Goddard (120), Clarke (100), and Shaw (120) all tonning up! They were ably supported by Broughton (85), Bugg (55), and Lake (91). Our bench of Morris (63, emo), and Ellis (72) both outscored Bugg, but we only lost a maximum potential of 17 points there.

The mids was a bit upsetting...